Specials
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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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And like Bex, I am still interested to see the analysis - I just personally don't put as much faith in it as you do yourself.
I wish you lots of luck tonight, and am sure you - like most on the forum - will turn a nice profit. |
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Hi Folks!
Thanks once again to you all for your EV analysis, comments and humour! Special thanks to FLL and Bex who I always have down as worth listening to.... I wonder if anyone has done any analysis (or has any thoughts) on where on earth the ex-Yugoslav nations votes will go this year?! Obviously, no B&H, Slovakia or Turkey this year from the off. Then no qual for Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, FYR Mac or Bulgaria and Albania. Can't for the life of me work out where their likely allegiance might go, but obviously this could have a significant effect on results (incl Top 10 etc). Any thoughts on this anyone? Many Thanks and Best Wishes to you all! |
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I can tell you that Tom Tiger.
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I think you misunderstand some of the opinion on here as being personal taste for songs. I love the San Marino song, but always saw it as a borderline qualifier at best, and laid it accordingly.
I am not a fan of the Netherlands track, or Italy although I can see the appeal in both, and the reasons why juries especially may go for them. |
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How do you know the reasons the juries will go for them?
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Surely every song is entered with the premise that the juries will go for them? You would need to know the priorities of the musical judges in each of the countries, all of whom have a different liking for different types of music.
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Based on the criteria sent to the juror's to use, and their historic patterns.
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Ah, so, stats, then.
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No srich, not every song is entered in that way. Many are chosen in their own country on televoting only, or with a strong bias for televoting. Also, some struggle to have appeal outside their own country. That is why the breakdown of Jury VS Televoting results for the last few years has been very interesting.
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Yes, stats. Stats are very important - I have never said otherwise. But they need to be the right ones, and contextualised. Forgive me if I am wrong, but your current methods do not take into account the sometimes very different preferences of juries and televoters in their individual nations in recent years?
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This information often helps to contextualise an over performance or an under performance.
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For Tom Tiger..
Albania GREECE 12 ITALY 10 SPAIN 8 NORWAY 7 GERMANY 6 AZERBAIJAN 5 UK 4 RUSSIA 3 UKRAINE 2 SWEDEN 1 Bulgaria GREECE 12 ARMENIA 10 AZERBAIJAN 8 UKRAINE 7 RUSSIA 6 UK 5 GERMANY 4 GEORGIA 3 SWEDEN 2 LITHUANIA 1 Croatia AZERBAIJAN 12 UKRAINE 10 RUSSIA 8 GEORGIA 7 NORWAY 6 SWEDEN 5 GREECE 4 GERMANY 3 FRANCE 2 HUNGARY 1 Montenegro RUSSIA 12 AZERBAIJAN 10 NORWAY 8 BELARUS 7 GREECE 6 ITALY 5 SWEDEN 4 ICELAND 3 UKRAINE 2 MOLDOVA 1 Macedonia BELARUS 12 AZERBAIJAN 10 ITALY 8 UKRAINE 7 RUSSIA 6 SWEDEN 5 NORWAY 4 UK 3 ARMENIA 2 GREECE 1 Slovenia DENMARK 12 ITALY 10 GERMANY 8 NORWAY 7 RUSSIA 6 SWEDEN 5 UKRAINE 4 ICELAND 3 FRANCE 2 GREECE 1 Serbia HUNGARY 12 MALTA 10 GREECE 8 BELGIUM 7 RUSSIA 6 UKRAINE 5 NORWAY 4 SWEDEN 3 LITHUANIA 2 ARMENIA 1 |
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So greece and Italy then at first glance
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and our posts crossed so thanks SoA
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By the way, my second question is this:
I understand that, in some countries this year, voting using an 'app' or similar is being used for the first time. Does anyone have any info on this? Also, does anyone feel this could influence things at all (eg younger voters etc)? Final thing is to remind people to be careful. The year Lordi won, Finland were nowhere in the polls and not in the top 10 in the betting. After the semi-final, it came out that lots of people in finland voted for Finland using Skype, routing their calls through the Skype servers of other countries! It was hushed up fairly well and it was never determined to what extent this might have caused the result (I think it was extremely relevant). Lordi and their management/fans certainly did well out of it! I'd won lots of money the 4 years before this and thought EV was a licence to print money! Lost a fair sum that night and have bet way, way less on EV since then. Hope people are careful and be aware that unexpected things like this can happen. |
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I was trying to find a site which listed all of the odds for previous Eurovisions but couldnt find one :(
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211 new posts and i'm none the wiser
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I would add Azerbaijan into the expectation of where the Balkan vote will go. Obviously they are high in some of the stats provided by Srich.
Greece, Italy, Romania maybe, Azer and then former USSR. |
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Thanks for your reply/stats SoA. Maybe Greece, Azer, Italy might benefit most then. Thanks Bex and GL Buddy.
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Italy for sure will benefit - they've had a good two years in Eurovision and they can really only improve this year.
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Romania are not but again I question the reliability of the data Srich has which may be skewed by some poor results. Songs like Tornero, and Let Me Try, which were top 4 finishes, I think got decent votes from the balkans.
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One good result over a number of possible voting years does not skew the stats that much.
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How many years are you analysing now though srich?
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6, but adjusted to include the Netherlands.
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Ok - can I ask why the decision to make it 6, is it based on time constraints or another reason?
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you cant really do more than that because prior to that the countries did not all use televoting.
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Most used televoting from 1997 onwards, so I would suggest if you have time and inclination, stats from 1997 onwards may be very interesting to many.
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you can see if you list all the votes, a distinctive change prior to six years in the votes. I'm not sure what the cause is, but it put me off using older data.
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Indeed pk.
Stats over a 4 year period are all but useless. |
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I assumed that it was because of a change in the voting method - maybe the introduction of juries for 50% although I think that was 5 years ago.
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The change to the 50-50 split was in 2009. Obviously this year we have a new change to the way that split is arrived at.
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The other thing I dislike is your exclusion of 5-1pts which is half of the songs that country voted for.
In a very extreme example, 39x5 would give a country 195 points, and maybe even a top 4 place in a close year. |
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I havent excluded those for the final, just for the semi finals.
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because for the semi finals you would effectively be picking out the countries they have given 1 or 2 pts to previously, which would have no reasonable significance, whereas, for the final there are more countries involved and you can do that with more reliability.
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I actually have all the countries listed with their average pts per year, and I have just chosen the top 10 from those for each voting country.
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For example,
ALBANIA ARMENIA 4 2 0.5 AZERBAIJAN 5 16 3.2 BELARUS 2 2 1 BELGIUM 1 0 0 DENMARK 5 2 0.4 ESTONIA 5 0 0 FINLAND 4 0 0 FRANCE 6 8 1.333333333 GEORGIA 4 0 0 GERMANY 6 21 3.5 GREECE 6 65 10.83333333 HUNGARY 3 0 0 ICELAND 5 6 1.2 IRELAND 4 5 1.25 ITALY 2 19 9.5 LITHUANIA 4 0 0 MALTA 2 0 0 MOLDOVA 5 0 0 NETHERLANDS 0 0 0 NORWAY 4 14 3.5 ROMANIA 6 5 0.833333333 RUSSIA 6 13 2.166666667 SPAIN 6 25 4.166666667 SWEDEN 5 9 1.8 UK 6 15 2.5 UKRAINE 6 11 1.833333333 |
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ITALY top 10 finish is free money IMHO, you will never see a better 4/7 shot, I already bet at 4/6 but tempted to top up
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