Specials
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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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because they dont have the allies that Greece have to vote for them and if they are struggling at the start, it means that the song is not popular as the odds suggested.
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Stats done, show that Russia win with 181 pts.
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191, even.
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Denmark 1.74 now im expecting lower when I wake up.
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bottom..
France 24 Malta 26 Spain 28 Estonia 31 UK 36 Finland 41 Lithuania 42 Ireland 47 Hungary 53 Moldova 59 Have to adjust them now for the inclusion of Netherlands.. |
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I suspect its not going to be at all close
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I have Denmark finishing in 13th place.
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Just moving into line with the prices on the highstreet. Not a significant move for me Bex.
If it's 1.5 when I wake up then you could be right |
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13th place, go home you idiot.
Ireland to win, you not to be seen again on these forums after 11 30pm tomorrow is my predictions. |
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Ireland to win?
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Voting order released.
An eastern winner or maybe Italy? 1) San Marino 2) Sweden 3) Albania 4) Netherlands 5) Austria 6) United Kingdom 7) Israel 8) Serbia 9) Ukraine 10) Hungary 11) Romania 12) Moldova 13) Azerbaijan 14) Norway 15) Armenia 16) Italy 17) Finland 18) Spain 19) Belarus 20) Latvia 21) Bulgaria 22) Belgium 23) Russia 24) Malta 25) Estonia 26) Germany 27) Iceland 28) France 29) Greece 30) Ireland 31) Denmark 32) Montenegro 33) Slovenia 34) Georgia 35) F.Y.R. Macedonia 36) Cyprus 37) Croatia 38) Switzerland 39) Lithuania |
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nice
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Yes, Italy to start with 12 pts.
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San Marino
ITALY 12 ARMENIA 10 GREECE 8 AZERBAIJAN 7 MOLDOVA 6 GEORGIA 5 NORWAY 4 RUSSIA 3 SWEDEN 2 UK 1 |
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Sweden
NORWAY 12 FINLAND 10 DENMARK 8 HUNGARY 7 IRELAND 6 ICELAND 5 GERMANY 4 ESTONIA 3 AZERBAIJAN 2 BELGIUM 1 |
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I'm looking more at the later countries. You'd expect the winner to finish well
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Albania
GREECE 12 ITALY 10 SPAIN 8 NORWAY 7 GERMANY 6 AZERBAIJAN 5 UK 4 RUSSIA 3 UKRAINE 2 SWEDEN 1 |
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Could be worth an early bet on Greece.
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or Italy.
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and indeed any country which does not fit with those early countries typical votes.
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just adapting my stats to include historical Netherlands votes.
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Ukraine voting 09th
Azerbainjan 13th Norway voting 14th Italy voting 16th Russia voting 23rd Denmark voting 31st Maybe Denmark starting slow and then leading towards the end hence they voting towards end? |
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starting slow and continuing slow imo.
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voting order is based on jury/voting results of semis, maybe the results of the jury dress rehearsal voting included?
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from eurovision.tv site "The voting order has been determined by the results from last night's Jury Final. An algorithm has been created to try and make the voting as exciting as possible."
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Mainly based on the jury vote from tonight, I think
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yeah correct. The PV could well be totally different to Jury though so the winner of PV may not be the same as Jury winner
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their algorithm could be all wrong if they havent got a clue how the televoting will go.
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exactly
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They'll have a good clue from the semis
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they will certainly know the top 3 etc, of each pv for the semis so they could predict the likely outcome for final
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excluding the big five and Sweden of course
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I'll do a graph in a bit to try to work out what it suggests.
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i think last year the scandinavians denmark, norway and sweden voted in a row in the middle
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I have the Netherlands finishing 12th.
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at the expense in particular of France who get knocked off the 1 vote place from many countries
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Done a graph. It seems to suggests that
a) Azerbaijan will start strongly and will lead the voting, esp. between votes 6-11 but peter out midway through the voting before picking up again a bit towards the end. b) Russia will start slowly, but with a surge of large votes between 18-20. c) Denmark's votes will be consistently building through the voting, no particular jumps. d) Other than between votes 1-4, Norway too will have a consistent increase in points with no particular jumps. e) The biggest climb in votes should be for Belgium, between votes 26-29. |
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The best countries to get on early on if trading, it would seem, from this voting order, are Norway, Greece and Azerbaijan.
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If youre thinking that the voting order has been chosen for the winning country because of consistency of votes through the voting, then Norway, Denmark and Italy are the likely candidates. If youre thinking that they have chosen the voting order to hide the winning country at the start, then Russia and Belgium are the two countries that climb quickly later in the voting.
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