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*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
*** Official Eurovision 2013 Fred ***
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Replies: 2,534
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The level you are taking it to, is of cursory interest only.
Check out the 2 topics you made on the subject for semi final 1 and semi final 2. The only replies are your own. It's interest to speculate on blocs, alliances, patterns but when contextualised. It is pretty meaningless without. The advice you were giving earlier in the week was sometimes not even based on hearing the song at all - or in some cases - the right one. :) |
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why, fll, has it been on your mind?
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It's been on his mind so long, way too long...
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It has srich
 All the best too Sunshine. Lets hope we get an exciting contest tomorrow |
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all the best to you FIVE LEAVES lets hope its not exciting for the Denmark backers - please excuse me if you are one - there is no offence intended I promise - it just seems that Denmark backers are few and far between in here. I cud be wrong.
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I'm probably one of few who will prefer the 1st half. My 4 favourite songs all on early to middle. Lithuania, Belgium, Malta & ofc Netherlands
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Malta would get my 12 points. Probably Georgia 10.
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It's a loser for me Sunshine. So I am with you on that.
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Im backing Spain Belarus and Finland for last place
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ok dokey my friend we are in it togther
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I have backed Belarus, Finland and Hungary although I missed the tastiest prices.
Just as I was about to take 20-1 Hungary, it was cut to 12's. |
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Belarus @ 12/1 definitely appeals. I have a score on Spain @ 4/1
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maybe malta if the price is high enough
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Denmark is a loser for a lot on here - even those who think it can win - just because of the ridiculous price.
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we will use our powers to get the bacon head beaten
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It will probably be Spain last, but the price was not tempting enough given I think they will get some points and there could be a 0 with the new system.
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lets hope Emellie has one of those little viral infections with a touch of pharyngitis
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Looks like I've missed 12/1 on Balarus. Always too slow. 10/1 now
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Finland were cut from 50's to 14 in minutes at one ultra conservative site this morning.
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I wish her well really only yoking
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She seems delightful. I just hope she doesn't win.
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She is horrendous.
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if that song wins I will not watch it again.
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Come on Ukraine
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Fook off Bex
Now she is horrendous. The posing prima donna |
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Denmark winning with Norway and Ukraine top 4 would be a HUGE disaster for me lol.
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Just about the point you mentioned earlier, that a winning song causes the stats to skew. Yes, I agree, it does, but not to enough of a degree. As you mentioned Norway, use that as an example. If we choose a random country, say, Slovenia.. doesnt normally vote for Norway, so did it that year? Yes, gave Norway 12 pts. But zero in most other years.. it has had in the previous six years, four opportunites to vote for Norway, so if we average that 12 over the four years, it gives 3 points per contest. When we put the stats for Slovenia voting for other countries into the equation and list them, I suspect that Norway won't even come into the top twelve.
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Probably the worst since Kara Tointon.
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Hence, frequency of voting is important too.
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Don't give me nightmares pk
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Got new neighbours next door with a young baby who screams and screams around 4am every morning. I dunno if it was that stopping me sleeping last night or the thought of Norway and Ukraine doing better than I expect, but either way I could not sleep after the excitement of the draw implications. :)
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I don't think anyone would disagree with you srich, that ir the winner will become clear pretty early.
Unfortunately the liquidity tends to dry up very quickly |
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Actually Slovenia was a bad example, they are quite likely to give Norway points considering there are no Balkan countries to vote for.
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I am not sure on that point. If there's to be another runaway winner, I would agree, but the vast majority on here do not think there will be. Assuming there is not, there could be some good value in running, for the first 10-20 minutes at the very least.
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I'm quite relaxed pk. I did ok on the semis, so whatever happens now it won't be a disaster
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Im not sure if it was last year or the year before, but I know I got some quick money on Moldova voting first for Romania, whose odds them plummeted at the start, or the other way round.
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Yes true. If it is close between 3 or 4 then ir could be very enjoyable
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Am sure that if there is a runaway winner it won't be Denmark.
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See this video of voting from 2005. Greece went onto win, yet look where they are at the start.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9lIwxXqY-M |
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The problem with that is that if Denmark were doing as well as Greece at the start of that contest, then you wouldnt want to bet on them at all!
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