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It successfully blends old traditional ESC styles with a more modern ethnopop feel. I like the song, and rate it's chances. I just don't think it should be AS short.
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Same here pk
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Where are Denmark's votes coming from though?
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Everywhere if it wins
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Almost all countries will vote for Denmark this year. Just like in 2000 - where did their votes come from then? Everywhere.
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Do you understand how this contest works Srich - a popular song can pick up votes in places where it does not have diaspora.
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As I said on another post, even Iceland don't give Denmark top votes these days.
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Yes of course it can, but where is the evidence that this song is that popular?
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When Denmark won in 2000, it got 8 12's and 7 10's. Only 3 countries gave it 0 points.
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Sweden last year had that - the odds, the pre-contest polls, the views on Youtube etc.
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All the polls and it's doing well on iTunes all across europe
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Did they have a combination of televoting and jury then though?
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It doesn't have to be THAT popular to win or place in a close contest. I don't think it will storm to victory, but to be completely discounting it's chances is extreme lunacy.
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Just televoting in 2000 I believe
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In 2000, it was mainly televotes only. There's no reason to think Denmark will not do well on both measures though.
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I havent finished my stats yet, but they dont even have it in the top ten.
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Although I do have some countries that will vote for Denmark to put into it yet.
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Juries if anything make the diaspora count less. This is evidenced fairly well by the splits in recent years.
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We know that Russia will give top votes to Azerbaijan/Armenia, and we know that Moldova will give top votes to Romania, and we know that Lithuania will give top votes to Georgia, Norway to Sweden, San Marino to Italy. Or thereabouts. The jury voting doesnt seem to put a stop to that.
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The contest should just be glad that like likes of Cyprus and the Balkans are not in it this year, could make it more interesting.
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The problem with your stats Srich is you view them in isolation, with no perception of any reasons for how they came about. For example, analyse Netherlands performance in the last x years, it is poor. However, they have never had a song expected to do well.
It would be more useful to look at those countries who regularly underperform or outperform expectations. From memory, Denmark generally have done ok when they have sent a song that has been well thought of. |
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Like last year when Russia gave 12 points to Sweden...
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Evidently, I think more of the voting patterns than the songs and you don't, but its been profitable for me previously so I shall stick with it.
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I think/hope that the juries will see Denmark as too formulaic and mark it down according. Favouring more original songs like Netherlands in particular :)
5th or lower with the juries and it could struggle to win even if it tops the public vote |
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Yes, but last year did Russia have the ability to give 12 pts to Armenia?
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And San Marino to Albania...
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accordingly*
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and was Sweden the winner?
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as I said previously, the winning country transcends the stats - if you can pick it out early, such as in your example of Russia giving 12 pts to Sweden, then you know that Sweden is going to win.
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It's not that I don't consider voting trends, patterns, previous stats but they need to be taken in context. That's the key.
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Well, there is a country at huge odds which I think will run the winner close (but not win) and I am not sure whether to put a bet on them to win and then trade the odds, or to just put a straight bet on top 4.
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And to know which strategy to use, I need the voting order.
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Take Russia last year. Again most countries gave it some points. Was it because it was Russia? No, it was because it was some old grannies with a novelty song.
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Yes, but it didnt win and it was one of the favourites anyway. And it wasnt in English was it?
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If you share the name, I will share my opinions with you as I am sure others will.
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I will after I have done my stats.
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The voting order will be revealed around 5pm tomorrow night.
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where?
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SVT website? It will be available all over the internet as it has been the last 3? years. It wasn't just last year they arranged the voting to try and make it exciting.
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There are a number of countries I think will do much better than predicted - I can name those now.. Italy (because of lack of Balkan countries involved), Iceland, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Norway - all up there with a chance.
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