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Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
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Well the thing is leaves you don't 'get' Iceland, Romania, Norway like a few others on here do. If thats the case then its more likely you will believe the Sweden price to be justified.
If I thought Spain was the best alternative to Sewden I'd no doubt think Sweden was value bet of the century  |
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Well the thing is leaves you don't 'get' Iceland, Romania, Norway like a few others on here do or substitute Greece Denmark and France for some others
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but generally I agree - I'm not a rock fan but I liked Manga - it was my main punt that year. It depends on the song
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True, I think Iceland is poor and struggle to see it having much impact with the viewers.
One fiddle doth not a song make. Romania I don't mind having given it a few more listens. I don't buy into the idea about it's how you start though. XF tends to point to the opposite and it's how you finish and after a good start Romania goes nowhere for me. Norway is aimed at me and those it aimed at don't appear to be getting excited about it as they were with Eric. Greece is ok, but I reckon Cyprus is a better song of it's type. ofc that could change when when we've seen them both live at the rehearsals. I've always liked Denmark. The silly outfit and sounding too american could hold it back. France I like too, but struggle to see it as a serious contender |
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Popera had no place at Eurovison, which has always been a broadly pop contest.
Whereas Euphoria fits into that broad catergory. I really don't see how anyone who likes a broad range of music could have failed to be impressed by the whole package at the MF. ....and I speak as someone who has never been to Ibizia or been to a sweaty wharehouse, off my head on E. |
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Norway isn't* aimed at me.
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wh0rehouse or warehouse
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lol I can't even spell warehouse or Ibiza.
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Back to Sxool for me.
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Hi Fig! How goes it mate?
Just to be clear I’m not dismissing Loreen because of the genre of music that it is, just pointing out that it is a pish-poor representation of a particularly dated genre of music that has had its Ibizan day in the sun. It deserves favouritism in a weak field, but the current price??? 2-5 slot for the final and will that hold? Will IT hold? Backing it currently is loopy imo Sweden is a complete enigma for me – I just don’t get the whole coronation of it as the perfect package, no holes in it etc etc. For me there is one giphuckingnormous gaping hole in it – it’s a song that declares itself as uplifting and euphoric. One glitch – it’s being presented to us by the scary, arm waving wicked witch of the West, who would look more at home doing a dark, gothy duet with Echo and the Bunnymen or the Sisters of Mercy in their heyday! They’d have loved the Swedish production! If Sweden’s representation of a euphoric heaven is a fat bloke throwing a psychiatric patient (with a phenomenal set of pipes) around a pitch black stage with rain as the crescendo, then gimme hell any day! Will juries punish it for the above? Who knows... I actually think the song is not that offensive and wudda probably loved it in one o your wharehouses 20 years back minus 2 kids, 1 missus, 3 stone and a dodgy knee  |
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Even more fun to be had in the wh0rehouses that squares alluded to :D
As for the song. If it was purely some core trance song that pleased the officiandos of that type of music, then it would have sod all chance. Yes it contains what could loosely be described as trance elements, but I'd argue that at heart it's just a very good 'popsong' As for the staging. One mans dark and gothic is another mans atmospheric. I was impressed with it the 1st time I saw it and I still am. Maybe it's just my fetish for women with fringes. Winkleman, Jessie J, etc  , but I find her a hugely enganging performer.As for the price, a 33% ish chance of winning in this field strikes me as more than reasonable. ..oh and not bad ta NX. I hope you're well and good to see you around again. |
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hardcore* not core
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It's rather like the argument over Manga's chances.
Would rock fans think it was a great track? No. But that's a good thing. What any song needs is broad appeal. Not to just please the hardcore fans of one particular genre of music. |
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Fair point with Manga and musical taste etc Fig. He had the white suit for ESC mind!
Same for Lordi, but they were completely OTT tongue in cheek. As with most things, maybe I'm over-analysing this. Can't have them at present price. At 2/1 I'd be hard pressed to back a combo of John Lennon, Elvis, Madonna and Johnny Logan running for Russia at this point of ESC in it's current format. whArehouses / wh0rehouses... what's in an A and an O!?!  not an ESC |
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Who says anything backing Sweden from a poll?
You dont back Barcelona cause a 95% audience from a poll says they beat Valencia? Chaps, lets be honest. Its a music competition. Its one strong fav. It will win. |
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A lot has been said of Sweden and I am one that generally is against backing short odds in euro , but on this occasion it wins at a canter if drawn late and that's what it is all about now.
So is 2-1.a good bet without knowing the order most prob not I.m.o but if drawn in the bottom 25% a great bet. Thankfully I'm on at larger prices and see this as the best song by miles in terms of jury votes and especially public vote , no worries it seems on her performance live , but that could all be irrelevant if drawn in the top 75%. I like Norway,spain,Serbia, as well as a few long shots if the draw does not go the way of the the Swedish . So some value in outsiders , I see spain as value especially on a top 10 finish as there draw is done. |
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Saslokk, the market tells us it's a strong favourite, yes. It may well win and good luck to it if it does.
But give it 2 - 5 on finals night and it's game on for any of about another half dozen runners who may pull a 20+ slot. |
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Sorry, not quite so certain with the jury bit
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*But I agree with all the rest of your analysis completely mugptr
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I am one of the ones who does not think Sweden will win. I think it will easily net a top 10 finish (barring a terrible draw) but there is something about the whole performance and performer and the song itself that makes me feel it may not connect with a wider audience, other than the Eurofans and record buyers in the countries it is already moderately successful. It's also worth adding that "Hero" by Charlotte Perrelli similarly aced the jury vote at Melodifest and the OGAE polls and as we know this did not translate to televotes at ESC. Both Loreen and Charlotte have images that are not hugely mainstream and I am not convinced that the visual production of the song will be to everyone's taste.
There are also plenty of people saying this type of music has not been tried at ESC before. This is not really correct. DJ Bobo had a strong dance song "Vampires Are Alive" that was another favourite that failed to even qualify. Similar Kate Ryan's Je T'Adore was another well fancied dance pop song that bombed out in qualification. Both had strong hooks, and although admittedly more pop than trance deserved better. It's worth pointing out both were for countries with less allies than Sweden, but the fact remains they were dance pop songs expected to do well and neither did. I am not saying Sweden cannot win, but I don't think it's a certainty that they smash the televote, and it would not surprise me to see it be another favourite out of the Jury's top 10. Therefore, I am not a backer and certainly not at the price. I would not be a backer at 16/1 FWIW. I think there are plenty of other runners, mainly in the low top 10 of the betting or below that present far better each way value and whether one goes on to win or not, even a top 4 finish would net you a better return than backing Sweden now. |
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Ok. As i see we have some anti swede mates here. :). 1st of all: Dear popking hero as you said did not voted by the public and came 1st due to juries just for info sanna nielsen earned the 132 televoting points with empty room. Loreen though made a double win tv+ij. Charlotte had already win and she was 34 then now loreen is 28 plus that charlotte looks older than she really is. Both singers have exceptional lives. hero+vampires were eurodisco which is old fashioned for esc but still very nice to listen so they did bad. Euphoria you can say it pop,dance,clubby,even trance house or ambient...the sound is mixed and suits with all these genres. Its the only song in this years contest which have been remixed. The prices are fair are valuable enough not less not more. if i was forced to support another it would be tooji's. it seems 2012 scandivian dance pop uptempo with eastern elements. i would also say la la love but its too bubblegum and a bad live.
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When i hear and read all this "Sweden is going to win and by a landslide" all because of the results of the OGAE fan voting makes me think about Susan Boyle in Britains Got Talent contest a few years ago.
During the final week and run up to the final on the Saturday night the polls and people were saying that Susan Boyle is going to win etc. and even newspapers were stating that she is going to win. On the Saturday and day of the final one newspaper was stated to have said that a man walked into a national bookmakers and bet £7,000 pounds (7 thousand) at odds on (under 2.00 on here) for Susan Boyle to win because he was absolutey certain that she was going to win. Susan Boyle didn't win the contest but came 2nd and runner up. I bet the man who bet £7,000 on Susan Boyle wasn't happy to lose £7,000. Just because a song is ranked number one in a voting poll and ranked high in other polls does not make or guarantee that song to win the contest. No one has heard all 42 songs live yet and there could well be a surprise with one or two of the songs etc. with out shining Sweden on the night and end up winning and beating Sweden. Last year when I heard the song from Azerbaijan I didn't think it was in any way a winner but when I then saw and heard the song live in the semi finals my opinion changed to that of "this could well be the winner" I also believe that the starting position of a song in the final can well make a difference with a late position doing for better than an early position. We will not know what position Sweden is going to placed in the final (if Sweden gets through to the final) until the drawing of positions for the final when it takes place right after the semi-final performance. If Sweden gets a late draw number than they could will win or end up placed very hight but if they get an early draw then I doubt that they could win. I won't get a feel as to who will win until I get to see and hear the song performed live on stage. |
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This forum is basically split between those who got on Loreen early and those who didn't but wish they did. Whether she wins or not.
Was reading yesterday that she has gone out on a limb to defend tooji from accusations he can't sing. Very decent person Loreen is. A bit worryingly for her backers is that she says she has only recent been told she is fav and says this could well/will inhibit her performance. Rehearsals will be interesting for sure. |
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LOL GB probably right! Wish I was on her at around the mark to cover and e/w punt in this, but I genuinely would be loathe to lump heavy on anything until the final draw is up.
I don't think any favourite deserves support like this (unless a Big 5/host) with the historical significance of the draw. Nobody can argue with those stats. |
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The Swedish layers are running for cover!!! If you guys are that against it, push the price out!!!
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One very good reason Clay
It gets a strong final quarter of the draw and it has an enormous advantage over the field! Any shrewd layer knows this. Hence they haven't taken Loreen on. FWIW I'm much more a backer than a layer. But if I see something I strongly oppose and it all adds up then certainly I'd lay lay lay all night... Ahhh - Vinnie Jones *good memories* |
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I disagree with some of the last post. Ok admittedly, there will be a few that wish they had got on early, and as a trade if nothing else, it would have been very worthwhile.
I am not really that much of a trader, but I did follow Melodifestivalen so I had the chance to get on Sweden early had I chose. However, unlike some others, I found the whole line up weak largely weak and uninspiring. Even the songs that were well fancied did not strike me as songs that would necessarily do well at Eurovision, and so I passed. I am surprised by how much Loreen won the televote by, I am amazed by how much she is leading the fanpoll and I am truly incredulous at how low her price is dropping, and just how big a favourite she is in the betting. All of these things do make me consider maybe I have got it badly wrong on this one. The only thing I can keep coming back to is ESC history, which is littered with other "Loreen's", and by that I mean big betting favourites, or fan favourites that have just not lived up the hype regardless of genre. That, and my own belief that this is not the type of song, singer or performance I would expect to win Eurovison. I am not even sure it is that good a song in it's own genre, and if it is drawn early or followed by something like France. (I know France is not favoured in betting, but it is a similar song to Loreen and could overshadow it in the same way Italy overshadowed France last year) In any case, the damage is done - there is not the tiniest bit of value in the price now, so for the next 2 weeks at least I will have to continue to look for what I feel is the value elsewhere, and hope for a poor draw, bad rehearsals, black dancer etc. Even if all those things go my way, nothing will be confirmed until just over 2 weeks today. Then we'll know if we can chalk this one up as a forum fail too, as I expect Sweden will be the overall forum choice, following Germany & Azerbaijan. Thankfully most shrewdies will have covered a lot of the value EW options, top 10 etc. too, so I suspect all will not be lost whether Sweden do go on to win or not. The debate remains as interesting as ever. I think Sweden 2012 may be dividing the forum far more than France 2011. |
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So what price will Sweden be if gets the 1-5 Trap draw in the Final?
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Well 2-5 or similar it would be as Engelbert is first. I reckon it would drift to 3/1 or so depending on how well some of it's challengers come over in the semis. Remember, the Sweden draw position will not be known until around late Thursday night.
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Again Clay... it's down to unknowns i.e. if you have a final 19 - 26 of Spain, Germany, then throw in the Grannies, Serbia, and/or maybe Romania, Norway, Iceland or a few other long shot fancies that could take Loreen with a strong live performance and audience reaction. Even France last year iirc did not drift that much here and the entire forum were massively against it! However, their draw was known. There are others on here far better qualified than I to price that up.
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OT but the Hump was on the Late Late Show here last night. Jedward too, but we know what they're like. His live performance was a bit ropey to be honest, which I was surprised with for a seasoned pro like himself. However, his interview afterwards - he came across as quite humble, genuinely delighted to be in ESC and very endearing over all
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The Hump has the the coffin draw
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He was on Graham Norton too.
I assume it was a live vocal. If so I was impressed. |
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Yes live, but a bit ropey towards the end of the performance when he goes for it!
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I thought he moved through the gears the very well on Graham Norton.
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Didn't see him on Norton. If ever there was a banker to pull off a bullet proof performance I'd have him, that's why I was really surprised by it
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merci...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6XVDaRgi_w |
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A ringing endorsement from AKOE's Keith for Spain NOT:
"Everyone has to have a least favourite song in the contest and I'm afraid that this is mine. I think Pastora Soler is a fine singer, but she has ended up with a complete dogs's dinner of a song. The melody is just a cord sequence that's repeatedly again and again and the faux drama on the climax tries to compensate but it only serves to irritate me even more. It ends it being a dreadful screaming mess." |
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Kieth's a phuck!ng d!ckhead...i remember him one year saying a certain song could not win because the girl was wearing a "blue dress"...what a pr!ck he is to be sure !
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