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Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
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well any kind of significant Sweden drift - going out to 3.4/3.5 isn't a drift for me
 4+ would be a drift |
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Sweden AKA Frankel - will win this easy. And you guys know it
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I cannot see Sweden winning.
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Are you Donny Montell?
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I would agree with you spanky in relation to Italy,I really fancy them and think they are a good thing for this competition.That said i do believe this is the worse eurovision in a long time.Standard not near as high as the last three years
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I think the Italian, UK and Serbia's songs are awful, tedious and boring. Russia is a bunch of grannies FFS. Sweden will absolutely hose up. Head and shoulders above this lot. Another Lena
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Ah the memories http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QSgNM9yNjo
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Great stuff Clay.
I still reckon she would have gone close to doing the double with Push Forward. I love this performance of it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEW0Qg3fBH4 |
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Just is just brilliant Five Leaves Left - hadn't seen that performance before.
Lena rules. So Sweden will be odds on won't they come the Final? Good trap draw and it's game, set and match!!!! |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8oJOo1nJ0Y&feature=player_embedded#!
Spain rework by various artist - actually very good |
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It's that piano line Bex
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Lena, Alexander Rybak and the other three winners of the past five years all performing at the ESC.
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Taken from my own thread also about Eurovision:
When the vast majority of the 'official fanclubs' of the respective countries participating has had their say, this is where we stand: The current standings are: 329 Sweden 181 Iceland 179 Italy 167 Serbia 137 Norway 115 Spain 88 Cyprus 67 Germany 63 Estonia 61 France 46 Romania 40 Russia 35 United Kingdom 33 Greece As a reminder, this is even a bigger margin than Alexander Rybak had a few years ago, when he won the competition in a record-breaking way. When a margin is this big, its conclusive, even if we take into consideration that televotes/jury on the actual day of competition will vary a bit from the fanclubs. Having said that, basically every country gives Sweden 12 points, so even if you downgrade that slightly in the final, for a margin-of-error, it has never been a bigger fav in the history of the competition since betting came into the picture. Prices are still 3,00 or just under that now at a bookies, but some of them, are as low as 2,25 and around. I would think, that sooner or later, whoever has been laying Sweden, will come to realize that it was the wrong move, and then market will go where it should be imo, around 2,40 before the semi's and Evs money in the Final. Back Sweden if you think what I am writing is enough evidence now, later on most likely you have to take a cut-price. Good luck all. /Saslokk |
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Lena
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When a margin is this big, its conclusive, even if we take into consideration that televotes/jury on the actual day of competition will vary a bit from the fanclubs.
Based on what exactly? 1 previous example? |
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Nice of you to consider the juries might have a different opinion to the fanclubs though
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You may well be right with the way the odds are headed though but I'd just call that lemming like behaviour
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Hi all. Been off the specials trail for a while through work and family commitments, but great to see the usual suspects here chewing the fat over the usual subjectivity
 Seeing as I'm not in Baku and Figgy didn't organise the "Elle & Nikki Specials Bus Trip to Baku 2012" for me to sign up to, I thought I'd had a rejuvenated interested in ESC for a bit of an interest!?! Famous last words lol Bit of a conundrum this year is Sweden for me. I never liked France last year and at this point there's just no value in Loreen. I have a few more ponies that might gimme a sweat each way (fancy prices too, don't ya know) and the semis are of much greater interest than the o/r... Been wrecking my brains at first listen but then it dawned on me what Sweden reminded me of... 1998 trance tune Freefall Skydive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRX8Ze-dj0c For a laugh play that and Sweden on at the same time. Not far off each other! Just a couple of observations on the Swedish number. I'm no expert, but from a jury pov will they really go for a niche genre of music that quite frankly is dead in the water since the end of the 90's? - the title alone is enough "Euphoria". One of the cheesiest trance album compilations that had Euphoria 1,2,3,4 Best of etc ad nauseum. Fair enough if Going Up was an homage to that genre of yesteryear music, but some people calling it groundbreaking and fresh is ludicrous. The true fresh and groundbreaking club/dance sound of Sweden and their respective House Mafia would guffaw onto their CDJ's at their representation in ESC methinx. But, then again, Sebastien Ingrosso won't be tuning in and voting either. Personally I find it less than euphoric (as it's a cheesy example of that niche type of music) and the staging lends itself more to demonic with the bewitched wild arm waving, culminating with the black guy thrown in and rainfall for dramatic effect. The euphoria is lost on me there. Given, she has a cracking voice and hits those high notes with ease, but I genuinely feel it could bomb with the juries and be hugely reliant on a televote. Just a bit of fuel for the fire and please go easy on me... rusty and just back in the saddle  As always GL all and run good! |
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Ok, my last 50 cents to the everlasting debate of who will win this prestigious competition.
2012 is a weak year. Extremely weak. Worst in last 10 years. There is one song that stands out. Its Sweden (sorry, no UK again). In the Swedish final, international jurys (just like those in the ESC competition itself) voted for the best Swe song. The vast majority gave this song, 12 points. The Swedish trials starts with 32 songs, where around half of them would make the final in the big competition. Swedish song, is a modern beat popsong, with a very good singer. It is one of those songs, everyone starts to sing along to, when the refrain comes. Well, most of us will. Jury points in the final counts for 50%. Televotes counts for 50%. In every single poll, offical fan, or not, SWE is way ahead of anyone else. That believes me to think it might turn out exactly the same way in the grand finale. But it doesnt have to, since if it turns out 12p from everywhere, Sweden will win with at least 100p. Sweden only needs to win with 1p. Margin of error, is extremely wide here. Italy, Iceland etc, might catch some 12's here and there, but also some very low scores and null points. I dont think Sweden will get many, if any null points. I can see Sweden get at least 6-7 12's, that is extremely low counted by the way. Since there is no standout opponent, they will most likely take points from each other. At the end, I predict Sweden to win this very comfortably. Noone has to believe me, or do as I say. Options are endless for everyone. I am just saying that 3,00 for Sweden is absolutely way too high and in my world, it also eventually will go below 2,50 and on the day of the final, I would not be surprised to see it at around 2,00. Anyway, I dont care, I got my bet. The price can drift to 3.50 or 4,50. What I do know, is that I strongly think it will win. Good luck guys with your bets. /saslokk |
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Welcome back NXRBL.
I saw that clip, skydivers impress me. There's some type that have some kind of delta wings so they come down at an angle and have some directional control. |
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Just adding one more thing
SWE Final, 10 songs participated 11 international jury groups (works same way as ESC final) voted for the best SWE song: Loreen Euphoria got 6 x 12 points, 3 x 10 points, 2 x 6 points She was ranked 1st by 6 juries, 2nd by 3, 4th by 2. 12 random ESC jurys. If this leads anyone to believe that the SWE final was weak or that this indicates nothing, then its your choice. For me, this is a pretty good proof that this song will work very good with jurys as well. Cheers, Saslokk |
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Cheers Henry!
Similar type of adrenaline ride to lumping on Sweden now come final night, I guess!?! |
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I posted the swedish juries stats about 5 weeks ago Saslokk but it is worth repeating
 . 2.92 now 2.76 by Sunday. |
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Cheers lads, wasn't aware it was an international winning selection at MF.
International juries obviously set to lap up this original piece of genius then Must be my aceeeeeid house days that have me underwhelmed with the song and amazed at the hype |
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Hi NX welcome back. Good to have some of the old hands returning to the fold. The juries scored Loreen a lot higher than Eric and we know where he finished
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Sweden may well win but is no value at all...i'd sooner back others for top 4,5,10 at better odds than back Sweden...i have to say thou i don't like it myself but i also hated Azeri last year, so that personal opinion means phuck-all.
the one song i keep listening to over and over is France...it's clearly got me by the b@lls...i just phuck!ng love it. |
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lol - not good when ESC songs have ya by the b@lls mate! But good luck with it! I find the french song ok too, but the draw not so much. Spain on the other hand... Have them, Romania, Norway, Serbia, Denmark in the o/r so will hold out on the o/r til the draw's up. TBH the only positive as a non Swedish backer is the value it's presented with the many other potential e/w runners.
I'm of the same opinion with fringe markets as I've missed the Swede boat To be fair personal taste counts for little in ESC and I'd worry for any shroody's sanity if their musical tastes lay in ESC type drivel. But having said all that Running Scared had me running to back them again and again and again last year! |
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Saslokk, I think you and Five Leaves are making a big mistake inferring that strong international jury backing at Melodivifestivalen or the OGAE vote translate into a win. Melodivifestivalen is not Eurovision and it isn't in the interests of Eurovision to become another Melodifestivalen. The OGAE fanclub also isn't reflective of the audience on Saturday night... Just because a song is a hit at your local gay bar doesn't mean that it's going to play big time elsewhere... It might or it might not.
NXRBL, in my opinion you've made some very astute obervations concerning Sweden. I also see Norway, Serbia and Denmark as good top 10 value... A couple of posts ago, I asked what the jury criteria were and whether there was any particular new development on this front... Nobody added anything here on this forum. Last we heard from Eurovision officially, the juries were looking at the vocals, quality and originality, the acts themselves, as well as the overall impression of the performances... This is what Eurovision's Executive Supervisor (a Norwegian) has said recently: "There is a great diversity in style, background and even age! I very much appreciate that artists take the freedom to sing in their own language, and use cultural elements and instruments in their songs and acts. The quality level is definitely very high." http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=jon_ola_sand_it_only_takes_one_big_surprise I take that to be a ringing endorsement of Sweden... After all, Loreen's Euphoria really strikes me as containing a lot of Swedish cultural elements, instruments and language... In fact, Sweden really is the first thing that came to my mind when I listened to the song for the first time. Seriously, "Euphoria" performed by Loreen is as Swedish as canned fish... I would add that it just as original. Saslokk, I also think that Sweden will get at least 8-10 points from listeners in every country across Europe... Hell, this is virtually assured. I think those coach potatoes watching Eurovision on Saturday night will inevitably get that infectious "raving fever..." I mean the Swedish song really stands out from all others such as the Norwegian entry, for example, which was written by... the same guy? I also think that Eastern European audiences, in particular, might take to Loreen's Romany-like appearance (in conjunction with the uniqueness of the song)... Good luck with your "safe bet" on Sweden, Five Leaves and Saslokk! Disclosure: I've been buying up more Italy at 10. |
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I would like to add in addition to Spanky that the last question asked on http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=jon_ola_sand_it_only_takes_one_big_surprise was the following:
Question: There is a lot of speculation on the internet about who is going to win, and the shortlist of potential winners is said to be very short. How do you look upon this? Answer: Every year there is a lot of buzz in the lead up to the contest. Then the rehearsals start and it often makes a big difference in the way the outcome is predicted. And in the end, we've seen over and over again that the bookmakers and even the fans appear to be very wrong with their predictions. It only takes one big surprise to turn it all around. Anything can happen, we've seen it before and 2012 is no exception. I personally cannot see Sweden winning and that is my persdnal opinion even and despite what the voting of the OGAE fans state. All the fans who belong to these OGAE clubs that voted did so voting on videos that were mostly studio performances of the songs and therefore these performances were not acutally sung live by the singer(s). A studio verson of a song can sound fantastic and brilliant to which people can can get way to over excited about but then when the song actually gets sung and performed live by the singer could well sound and come across like a car accident. I shall wait until i see all the songs being performed live on stage in the semi's before I guess and predict who the winner is but at this moment I cannot see Sweden winning especially when the majoirty of the songs have not been sung live yet. |
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When will the draw be sorted out?
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Haven't been on here for a bit but have to agree with this comment a while back from bexley
"If Sweden wins comfortably I'll be amongst the first to say well done and admit I had it wrong. For now I remain convinced this is one of the worst value bets I have ever seen." Do you ever get horses in the National at 2/1? Actually, you did, it happened once about 80 years ago....and it lost! Far too big a field to have a favourite at that price, especially when there are some question marks over it....and this is coming from someone who likes the song and listens regularly to it on CD every time he gets in the car. I don't get how there is a general agreement that juries favour ballads...yet suddenly trance music is also a 'defo' for juries as well. Personally, from a purely jury perspective (if a random punter like me can have that true insight) then Iceland is the bet...but with fan votes as well to consider, it's very blurred this year. Highest ranked green I have is Serbia and the rest of my green is in the middle of the pack. Referencing another one of bexley's comments I think most of you have forgotten/don't know a key element to the way the voting is organised these days. |
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it's a very very poor field. Sweden the Frankel. Will smash this lot. You talk about 2/1, Sweden should be odds on imho!! 2/1 is a stunning bet
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maybe Loreen would like to borrow some socks of mine...to stuff down her empty bra !
the last time i saw a chest that flat ?... Bristol zoo's snake enclosure  |
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Whether a country is the hot favourite or odds on favourite doesn't make that country the 100% guaranteed winner on the night.
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MilanBarosh
"Sweden may well win but is no value at all...i'd sooner back others for top 4,5,10 at better odds than back Sweden...i have to say thou i don't like it myself but i also hated Azeri last year, so that personal opinion means phuck-all. the one song i keep listening to over and over is France...it's clearly got me by the b@lls...i just phuck!ng love it. " Spot on with Sweden and France assessments. Can honestly say France hooked me from the first 10 seconds. I even love the duets she's done with others for this song that are out there. Then again, the last song to hook me that quickly was Estonia last year and that didn't fare too well! Doh! Still, happy to have it as the biggest green for anything I've ever had for any bet! Become a family phrase in my household. Anyone asks for anything and the answer is 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Can we go to Florida this year?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Are we getting a new car this year?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Can I have an i-Phone?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' I've said yes to that many things I could end up winning the bet and then ending up bankrupt!! |
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MilanBarosh
"Sweden may well win but is no value at all...i'd sooner back others for top 4,5,10 at better odds than back Sweden...i have to say thou i don't like it myself but i also hated Azeri last year, so that personal opinion means phuck-all. the one song i keep listening to over and over is France...it's clearly got me by the b@lls...i just phuck!ng love it. " Spot on with Sweden and France assessments. Can honestly say France hooked me from the first 10 seconds. I even love the duets she's done with others for this song that are out there. Then again, the last song to hook me that quickly was Estonia last year and that didn't fare too well! Doh! Still, happy to have it as the biggest green for anything I've ever had for any bet! Become a family phrase in my household. Anyone asks for anything and the answer is 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Can we go to Florida this year?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Are we getting a new car this year?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' "Can I have an i-Phone?" 'If France wins Eurovision, then it's a 'Yes' I've said yes to that many things I could end up winning the bet and then ending up bankrupt!! |
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As the price continues to contract, the swedish naysayers get louder.
I wouldn't back any song based on a poll. Though like the high scores sweden received from the international juries at the MF (which I'd put more weight on), polls and other stats are all part of the jigsaw. Ultimately you have to go on your own instinct and reaction to a song and a performance. I was originally a layer, as I thought a challenger or 2 would come from the usual suspects. But as one by one they unveiled songs of little quality, I became a backer. Sweden now looks to me as the one real quality package of the final. Something might show up well at the rehearsals and challenge, but atm I believe the price is justified. |
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I also believe people dismissing a song because of genre.
Many did the same with Lena and her Kate Nash-esque offering, or Manga and their rock offering as rock always underperforms. The audience don't think in these terms. All that matters is does the song and performance engage them and I believe in the case of sweden it will engage them more than any other offering. |
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I also believe people dismissing a song because of genre is way off* that should have read
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