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Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
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Replies: 1,279
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I notice the semis and final will be broadcast midnight - 2am Baku time.
I guess the Big 5 must insist on that. |
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* midnight to 3.15am for the final
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I'm not sure where that guy got his figures from but a quick look at youtube and I found a video of Sweden with over 2M views and 11,683 likes, 1,528 dislikes
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oh sorry. I should have read the post. These figures are just from eurovision.tv
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Shame he spends the time but uses the video with 178,609 views instead of the video with 2,621,615.
Waste of time really. |
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Lena in her win was completely original in it's simplicity. Second time round was all too quirky although I personally loved the song. But for her win it was just a 'young' normal girl, dressed in something every girl could have in her wardrobe, singing and having fun. It wasn't trying to be clever.
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I've been wagering successfully on the Eurovision for the last couple of years. Usually I go with songs to qualify (or not) from the semifinals. I did heavily buy Azerbaijan last year and bought some Lena the year before. This year I do not see any better value than Italy winning this thing. Italy is currently trading at 10. Basically the odds are claiming that there only is a 10% chance that they will win this thing. I see the odds upwards of 50%...
Seriously all the arguments five leaves made for the Swedish song could also be made for Italy... Plus it sounds more original and has a much wider appeal in my opinion. There is no other jazzy song. Nina will also pick up votes from Soul and R&B fans. I would also expect voters in all age categories to favor Italy over Sweden. As has been pointed out elsewhere, Sweden is also competing with other similar songs in their genre... Of course, one should also not forget the fact that EBU members have a vested interest in keeping Italy in the competition. Last year Italy placed 2nd but the Eurovision only attracted 6% of Italian TV viewers... Keeping Italy in the Eurovision is in everybody's interest because it reduces the contributions for all other countries. And if things stay as they are there is a real danger that Italy will exit the Eurovision (again)... Of course, I don't think that this will be first and foremost in the minds of the juries but if we look at this from a commercial point of view this surely has to be a consideration. |
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First post in 10 years! Welcome.
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Yes welcome!
Totally agree that Italy are in with a great chance, tis a very catchy tune on first listen and stands out from all the other songs in the field. Should be well up there. Draw position is a bit worrying considering the strong recent trend towards winners in the latter half of the draw, as such wouldn't say it's better than a 5/1 shot personally. Other obvious standout for me is Germany. Cute popular guy with cute popular song is absolutely tailor-made for Eurovision, and he's got an absolutely prime draw slot too. |
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Thanks for the welcome! I've been quite busy trading on this site but I haven't been active in the forum at all...
Jack12321, I agree that the draw is the one thing working against Italy, especially given that televoters will only be able to vote after all songs have been performed (unlike last year, for example, when they could vote during the competition). Nonetheless, I am optimistic that the Italian entry will stand out sufficiently from the ballads and the bubblegum pop for televoters to remember it... I certainly think that Italy has an even better entry than last year which I suspect will win the jury vote (again) and land in the top 3 of the televote. |
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Italy's my favourite, but spanky you can't really think it should be odds-on with 5 weeks to go and 3 weeks before rehearsals start?
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Henry VIII, I do think that Italy is in a class of its own. Based on what I've seen, I don't doubt that Nina Zilli will put up a great performance... I simply don't see any other song that I think has the potential of winning... Sweden looks like a Eurovision fanwank to me - I don't think it will score that well with the general public - it is competing with some of its neighbors and other countries in that genre... There are a lot of good ballads (Spain is my favorite song) but they all cancel each other out... And Russia, of course, isn't going to go anywhere. They might end up in the final but pity will not win them the contest. Perhaps, Iceland could surprise with a top notch performance but I'd be surprised if they win.
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Ha, I like it more than you spanky, it's my personal favourite.
But I fear for it's 10th slot plus lack of diaspora nullifying uniqueness that Rybak and Lena had. Let's see if they stage it well - musicians on stage (and I prefer her looking like she did on the Per Sempre stage). |
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Sabina Babayeva, Azerbaijan has decided to destroy her natural beauty with upper lip injections and botox. Sigh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzA7b7UT4es |
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"Eurovision fanwank"...nice one spanky...plenty of tottie on show in this year's euro for us pro perv's
 ps, i prefer France to Italy myself...better singer and song imo. |
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italy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K8PB8eIy50
france. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T2ZgdgRW0g you see...france is better than italy...simples  |
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I'm coming more and more to the conclusion Sweden is fanwank as well.
I still can't appreciate the Italy love because I don't like this style of song personally. Its success surely still lies in the jury vote and not the televoting. I agree France is a better song and with them together in the draw, can't see this great for Italy. Henry not having a go but weren't you firmly with France last year? as far as appreciating the song. I think the Italy love may be coming from some of last years France fans - its a 'snobs' song for me in that its one of those that only the 'cultured' amongst us can appreciate apparently |
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Some of the songs want to make me dance along, some make me smile, some are emotionally moving, some are dramatic - Italy makes me go Huh?
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I'm not saying back them. My backs have been very frugal.
I'd like to see her perform it live to see if your snob criticism holds true, it may well lack the popular appeal just like last year's. |
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I don't think she has performed it on stage yet - it was a rushed replacement for Per Sempre.
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Incidentally I think the video of her singing it in the studio is awful - hair crushed up, awful clothes, and extreme close ups are very unflattering even for a beauty like her.
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Henry I haven't suggested any bets on Eurovision yet although I have entered my top 10 etc for a bit of fun an an indication of how I see things. I'm finding it extremely difficult to identify a solid bet.
What I am finding much easier is in identifying some value to trade in the Betfair market purely becuase of what I see as false favourites to an extent but certainly false prices on the top 5 or so in the betting. Serbia may very well end up a default winner and its the lowest price of any I have backed, which I did at an average of 19. I'm much happier holding my Iceland, Norway, Germany, Spain, Romania trading portfolio. Ireland as well but thats down to hoping for an Jedward gamble less than seeing a potential winner. |
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Serbia ?...the acts are on for 3 mins, this song does nothing at all for the first 40 secs apart from playing what sounds a little like the "titanic" tune...it's far, far behind in my list, can't understand the price on this either.
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Serbia isn't that great I agree. If I actually rated the song I would be going in big time like Azerbaijan last year
It has the possibility of a rasonable jury rating being a ballad and a well regarded artist (though how important the 2nd bit is I have my doubts). It has a guaranteed disaporo vote and I think has very few rivals for that Balkans vote with Bosnia for example being a cure for insomnia  |
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the songs i like personally, in no preferential order are...
GREECE,NORWAY,CYPRUS,FINLAND,ROMANIA,FRANCE & UK. i find all the above prefered listens to all others...how they perform 'live' we'll see, although i have no worries regarding France & UK on that score i feel. |
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"has very few rivals for that Balkans vote"...totally agree.
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watch the french fan all alone amongst the Greeks here on 1.26secs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ory_BSpmApk
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Bexley, interesting that you would consider Italy a song for snobs. That really was my opinion of France last year... In fact, I would say that Italy last year sounded much more like a song for snobs (and "lounge music" as someone else entitled it). This year, I would say that their song has much broader appeal to a wider range of listeners.
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Spanky yes I do agree its far less that type of song than France but still I do feel its of that ilk. Mainly because a few people see it as 'classy' which I can't fathom myself.
Its all subjective of course and I'm very glad you have decided to start posting despite not agreeing with your personal betting selection. Being an Iceland fan, less so a backer for a few reasons, I know the feeling  |
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I'd agree with you Bex about the Italian video.
I keep reading she's great performer but there is no evidence of that in the video where she looks stand off-ish and in an XF type show, a stand off-ish good looking woman would be favourite for 1st out. Lots of male punters backing with their c0cks, I suspect, rather than fanwank, which is a different thing |
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Ooops Henry made the point about the video. So I agree with Henry
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Italy my second biggest green and i flagged her up a while back. I share some of the views above that it may not be typical ESC fare but I thought it would come in in price. I can see a memorable stage show maybe with good female backing singers with a decent routine. At 40/1 she was cheap to get on side.
And welcome spanky. You have certainly been hiding your light under a bushel. Hope its not another 10 years before you post again  |
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http://swedishstereo.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/loreen-at-voice-of-finland.html
Much prefer the scrubbed up Loreen. Hope the ESC audience reacts the same way. Number 1 in lithuania and estonia it seems. |
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Think someone asked for a live version of Italy. Not the best quality. Visceral enough to win or more a studio recording song?
http://www.escchat.com/threads/live-performances-of-eurovision-2012-entries.1486/ |
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Every poll I have seen today has Loreen p1ssing it.
http://www.esctoday.com/news/read/18655 This one has her averaging over 10 per country vote same as in Melodifestivalen. Also shows that while some will pick up votes here and there final night Loreen looks most likely to have that cross Europe support. Whatever the result I'm still glad she is my biggest green. Who has her as a red by the way? http://www.tummiweb.com/scorewiz/poll/results |
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and i'm large red Sweden but not through actively laying it. Only Sweden involvement was a small back at 9's and lay for the same amount at 5.8
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Thanks for Italy George. They've done the right thing - touring with just 6 on stage, although it would be more useful if they toured outside Italy. Do you still reckon it's elitist Bex? I don't think it sounds so, sounds a little bit Amy Winehousish.
Btw if you're large red Sweden without laying it you must have made some big backs? |
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* (wide shot reveals 7, not 6)
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Talk of Netherlands & Joan Franka going for a 'more natural look' rather than the fancy dress.
It would certainly help their chances of at least qualifying. |