Specials
Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
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Well, if that's the case, we'd better lump on Engelbert!!
It's an interesting point you raise although instinctively I'm not sure how accurate that is given Lena and Rybak weren't famous before their wins and conversely Blue and Dino Merlin weren't exactly given great help from the juries. Not saying you're wrong but now you've mentioned it I'll certainly be checking it out. If true, then it certainly backs up my relentless push on France as Anggun has done all sorts as I've now learnt. |
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objectively Zilli's a great performer, and juries like established artists, (and Italy are reasonably popular with the public).
I'm with honestcl here - I think the established artists part is unproven at best. Italy do seem popular enough but then how many countries apart from the UK are unpopular exactly?  I think Italy's price is an overreaction to last years surprise result. Am I discounting it completely as a winner - nope - but at the price its way way down my list of value. Draw isn't great and though others may scoff at my pet theory, titles with La'la's, boom booms etc did shockingly badly last year with the juries and Italy has those in the lyrics if not the title itself. |
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Can anyone explained how Italy hacked up with the judges last year? Jazzy song that the televoters placed mid table. Welcome back sympathy vote maybe? I'm on because I think it will do well with the juries and and at least as well with the viewers. Probably won't win but happy to have it on board as potential trade in the final.
Juries seem to go for female ballads with lots of uplifting high notes. Hell jade managed third. Sweden that year second. Lithuania easily won jury vote in semi last year and she was pretty average to these ears. Using that criteria who do we have? The Hump apart from gender? |
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Yeah, I'm not saying they're value.
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Can anyone explained how Italy hacked up with the judges last year
Not me. The welcome back vote only works imo if the judges were directed to vote in this way which I'm unwilling to accept as at all likely. This years I'm unsure about jury reaction but more certain that televote wont be great - maybe 10th at best with televote. That could be enough to win if its a runaway jury winner again but runaway jury winner in consecutive years? I'd say that wouldn't be good for the competition and could raise some concerns |
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The 2 main fan polls I use have Italy 7th and 12th. Given a few big diasporo countries are behind them in thes polls and should in theory overtake Italy thats why I'm saying my best 'guesstimate' would be around 10th in televote.
These polls aren't obviously a reliable guide by any means but a bit of logic applied to them and you can get a general feel for whats likely to happen. |
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Giving Italy #1 with the juries as some seem inclined to do is a step too far for me. I'd only say that it may do very well but I can see a reason why it may not.
Spain for example would be a much more certain high placing with the juries in my assessment as would Iceland. Even Hump I'd say would be as likely or more so than Italy |
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I agree with Bex regarding it's possible jury vote. I'd rate a good half dozen above it in any market for who will top the jury vote.
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I've done my Top 10 again (well 12) for a little bit of fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hc77TbETycI It was an interesting exercise. I'd probably put Finland (which is similar but a different class to Iceland imo) and maybe Germany higher now, plus I was struck by the fact that Sweden didn't really standout when in amongst a number of very decent songs. |
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Oh B0ll0x. I've just seen it has been blocked on copyright grounds.
Well that was a fooking waste of time  How come there are plenty of other ESC top 10's on youtube? |
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This video contains content from WMG, SME, Brainpool, Willax Televisión and Rebeat Digital GmbH, one or more of whom have blocked it on copyright grounds.
Sorry about that. Maybe try another hosting site. |
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Yep, i got that message when I logged out of my account.
I'm sure there's a way round it. |
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I bet it's the bloody Germans
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I reckon it is the Germans, as I uploading it again without the German video, but just the audio and it appeared, but with no sound
 I might have to lob Lobb out of my top 10. It's a dull old tune anyway. |
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uploaded*
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Re juries I thought this was quite interesting and the comments.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHX6Vour7AU |
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It would have been more interesting if Spain were top ;)
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I've managed to get my top 10 to work by removing the sound of Germany too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvSdc33CKe0 I'm sure I'll be as wayout as last year, but hopefully my #1 will do better than Haba Haba |
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Shouldn't really have a go at the video it may well be informative for the noobs. All I'm getting at is that anyone with any knowledge of the competition would already have arrived at a similar broad conclusion. Anyone who didn't know this already shouldn't be having a bet
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Love the top 10 YT vid, fig - you're a pro at doing these. I need help trying to put them together - and those pesky Germans always wreck things. 2 years ago, had to just go with just a pic of Lena. Good to see some thinking outside the box selections in there too, and, it has to be said, a tremendous shout for your no1
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Has the criteria given to the juries changed? Thought I'd read somewhere it was more the voice this year but could have been dreaming.
Re Sweden the comparator we have is with Erik in Melodiviestivalen. The combined jury/viewer votes for Loreen are almost 40% higher than he got and he finished 3rd in the ESC. I'd say Loreen had stiffer competition with Danny than he provided for Erik. Early days with this poll but a pattern emerging. http://eurovoix.com/category/eurovision-2012/ For any country to win you can get a few ducks but Azer averaged 5.26 voted per country (I think). The problem as I see it this year is that while quite a few of us fancied Azer last year there appears to be remarkably limited consensus this year. I'm not saying that Loreen will win but its clear why she is a clear favourite because as of now there is no consensus about who will beat it. Italy moves to second fav and most say on here it won't win. What will then? |
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Yes very good fll. You may be pleased to hear that Mrs B who each year listens to them once and scores out of 10 has Spain 1 and sweden 2. I shall make Spain more green.
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the power of Mrs B...all the 25s just taken
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And only a bit by me.....
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Unbelievable lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftrutJuBRnw&feature=youtu.be |
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Cheers jr.
I'm sure it will be way off the actual top 10, but I am coming round to your thinking that it's quite a strong year. The likes of Ukraine, France & Estonia could all have been in my top 10 too and I'm sure I've forgotten a few others that took my fancy |
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lol milan. It works well.
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Re. the juries video that George put up earlier, that's not a million miles off what I had on a jury only basis. Sweden's high placing is worrying for me as a layer but I was thinking how Iceland could get a large share of the vote.
Duets in vogue at the mo with Azer winning and Denmark well placed in 2010. (And who could forget Bardo finishing 7th in 1982 LOL!) Backed with a view to a quick lay but now taken my lay down and going to let it run. Will definitely trade in the teens at some point and maybe even single figures. |
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Cyprus exploiting the 'let's try and conjure up a dance craze' angle:
. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYDBso2qwLs&hd=1 |
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sorry, not Cyprus, Malta
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Been "lurking" on here and elsewhere serving my ESC apprentiship (I still haven't worked out what diasporo means!).
First post to say I found the Youtube Top 10 entertaining Fig.....We have very similar musical tastes.With all the variables that this contest encompasses,I'm finding it tough going tbh,although from a musical point of view Spain is by far my favourite song. Picked for various reasons (some I regret) my 5 E/W plays are Spain @ 40/1,Azerbajan @ 50/1,Romania @ 66/1,Iceland @ 28/1 and Greece @ 33/1. I have also punted Spain in the Big 5 category @ 10/3 and 11/4,and in the match bet with the UK @ 10/11. My personal favourites include Sweden,Denmark and the Netherlands but for various reasons I have left them unbacked.Not sure if I will play this market next year as it's pretty time consuming I find,I'll assess my initial results and decide then Thankyou for all the posts here and there,from my outright picks you will see I have shamelessly stole some people's selections.....Good Luck all. |
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GL Hems.
I'm glad you enjoyed the video. Iceland still leaves me cold (no pun intended)and is a lay for me for top 10. I'm just hoping it gets an early draw. The others look solid bets for various reasons, even tho Spain is the only one I'd only listen to for pleasure. This year has been very tricky from a betting POV, with very little obvious standout value. Azer looked a no brainer at the price last year given the quality of the song and their record in the comp due to lots of 'friends' and a decent diaspora vote (btw that's people from one country, living in other countries and voting for their country of origin. Turkey & Greece benefit the most from these votes I suspect) The year before we had the 'force of gravity' that was Lena and an excellent ew bet in Turkey who had a very decent rock/pop number with a good looking charasmatic singer. Before that I didn't really take the show that seriously and just had some fun bets. Back to this year Spain are my only big winners (of the fancied runners) and I'm only hopeful rather than confident of landing a 5 figure win for the 3rd year on the trot. A good case could be made for a dozen or more winning, with none of the 'big guns' having a strong song imo All assuming Sweden don't run away with it, which still looks the likeliest outcome to me. |
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All assuming Sweden don't run away with it, which still looks the likeliest outcome to me.
Why Figgy, just because it's topping the polls? The Swedish entry in 2008 topped the polls, then came 18th. |
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i'd like to give a mention to the most beautiful song in this years contest...FINLAND.
"Nar Jag Blundar", written by Jonas Karlsson,performed by sister Pernilla Karlsson and it's a song about their mother. The song is actually sung in "Fin-Swedish"...Finland has two official languages -- Finnish and Swedish. There is a notable Swedish minority that has lived there for centuries and centuries. Finland was also once ruled by Sweden, too. There is a small swedish-speaking minority in the western and southern coasts of Finland. Most often they can speak national swedish, finnish, and their own dialects with each other. In western Finland, they often use words and grammar that swedes used 150-200 years ago. i think this song is just so pure and simple...i love it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=43GWoVxRk2Y |
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..and I totally agree about Finland Milan. It's an absolute gem of a song.
Also for me the dancer adds to the charm of the song, rather than ditracts from it, as some comments on youtube have suggested. Probably too subtle to score highly with the public on the night, but you'd like to hope it will be well rewarded by the juries. |
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