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Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
Eurovision 2012 - The road starts here....
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2/1 Greece!?
 I'd give it a small squeak, but 33% chance of winning against the field?? That's nearly as mad as when someone last year said Slovenia were a 6/4 shot! |
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That Slovenia 7/4 was very amusing - what made it funnier is that he said it as thought it were a cast iron fact that it should be 7/4, as opposed to it being a subjective opinion
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Very quiet on here now. Everyone just waiting for rehearsals.
All there is to do now is just pick those you think are priced too high and wait for the price to plummet (hopefully) People either have short memories; didn't see the various plunges in finals week or are new to this betting; but I'd say just about every price on there will go lower at some point. Voting on the night leads to crazy brief plunges hence Denmark being EVS (!!) for 2 minutes in 2010 after 2 sets of voting; Sweden down at 3 when Eric was leading around half way last year; UK dropping last year when they landed a 12 in round 2 of the voting. Cannot stop stockpiling Norway and France! No way Norway won't hit sub-20 at some point between now and end of May. Likewise France at 180 is crazy. Will hit 100 or less over next 7 weeks. Guaranteed. Also Cyprus at 55 will trade lower; Greece will trade lower simply because it's Greece! There will be a push for Jedward at some point. Plenty of others will all go lower than current prices. Only takes a drift on Sweden and that will affect most other prices and bring them down. Sweden already drifted 15% since low point 2-3 weeks ago. I quite like Sweden but it's not the standout the odds would suggest. |
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Had my biggest ever loss (on any market) stockpiling a Norway eurovision entry - got rather silly thinking I could trade out and ended up with about 5,000 loss that I couldn't get rid of - that took me a while to get over! Not that it has much to do with this year's entry of course, just stimulated a very bad memory there!
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which one stu ?
my guess this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xRlP1ptjZ4 or maybe http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfoPgEYXJ8Q |
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That's quite a hit stu.
 I'm guessing Fairytale. TBF overall Norway have a shocking record. Worse than both Germany and Spain. |
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My guess is Haba Haba
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That took a fair few hundred out of my book.
Fortunately Azer came along to save me. |
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Thankfully managed to restrict my Haba losses to double figures so no real harm done. That said, I think I mugged it and some of my backing was at the very lowest price it ever reach IIRC!
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Agree with nearly all of your post honest. Plenty of value to be had in Euro either ante post or on the night if you have big enough balls and are fast on the button....this from someone who laid too much off Azer last year.
stu/fll can't have been Fairytale surely if you couldn't lay off...it won iirc  |
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Just what I was thinking re. Fairytale - wish I'd stockpiled that one! I also laid off too much on Azer last year, based on their (mainly her) poor singing on the night. Made peanuts in the end. Thankfully Georgia and Greece Top Ten saved the day! :-)
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Not sure how well it'll be received by juries but Belarus is a song I like a lot at the moment. Just wish the guy would learn to say 'breaking'!!!
BRACKING down the walls, just isn't right! Could see that hitting double figures at some point - very entertaining with the volume turned up |
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Might have been posted before but I understand they are reverting to voting lines opening after the last song. Counter intuitively it seems this makes no difference to the results but still can't help thinking singing later even more of an advantage...won't help the Hump.
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I read stu's post as saying he'd built up a £5K red on a Norwegian entry and then couldn't get it onside when it shortened, which would fit my fairytale theory.
I suspect you guys are right tho. |
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I read it the same as you FLL.
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Not just me then
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Apologies for delay in replying, and funny that it stimulated so much debate!
 However....funky was correct with his first guess, 2006 Christine Guldbrandsen and the song 'Alvedansen', I backed that entry way too heavily in the mistaken belief that as it was surrounded by dross in the running order it would stick out and trade far shorter. Sadly, it never did (and not for anywhere near enough money either)! Learned a harsh lesson in trading that year. Funnily (kind of) also the only year I've made a loss on the Eurovision market since using Betfair. |
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Apologies for delay in replying, and funny that it stimulated so much debate!
However....funky was correct with his first guess, 2006 Christine Guldbrandsen and the song 'Alvedansen', I backed that entry way too heavily in the mistaken belief that as it was surrounded by dross in the running order it would stick out and trade far shorter. Sadly, it never did (and not for anywhere near enough money either)! Learned a harsh lesson in trading that year. Funnily (kind of) also the only year I've made a loss on the Eurovision market since using Betfair. |
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Oops, double post
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Just to recall another reason for the bet being that in the voting orders it had several supposed 'allies' early on, so although I traded off some liability in running when it then refused to shorted I left much more than I should for the voting in running. Norways 'allies' failed to show up then too!
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That explains it stu.
I'm glad it wasn't Haba Haba |
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Is that Tulisa singing the Romanian entry.
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Has anyone ever been to this event?? Just have it my list of things to do before i get too old
Did look at prices for Baku because id never been there, looks like an arm and leg job though, so i wont bother plus being a (Cough) middle aged Brit id probably get totally ripped off the moment i got off the Plane |
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It's being held in Stockholm next year...much easier to get to
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The Camel Man will break the hearts of the opposition. The Webber Man thought that it was his time three years ago. Well I am tellin ya is the time to smash the Camel Man NOW. Yes I am back my pals. G-d bless u all. He ought to be and should / will be favourite one day.
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SCRICHAPHAN ANCIC AND MILAN BAROSH were absoultely right my pals. Sweden is what I call average while the grannies are just an age thing smoke screen to push the backers away from the Gold Camel.
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Trap One should warm the whole crowd along with the voters to this genius of a guy. Pure Gold and the best performer we have ever ever ever ever had. This man is quality in abundance.
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I honestly remember what Webber said in the programme a week before the 2009 gig. He mentioned that Jade would probably not win. He was right. However, if we put into perspective the fact that we were obviously trying a lot harder that year and that she finished a highly commendable 5th, let us all compare Jade to the Camel Man. Jade was an exciting raw individual with enormous potential and a fine singing voice. The Camel Man has done it all seen it all and got many many gold t shirts and knickers. He should win my good pals. He will probably finish last now knowing my recent luck.
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Hey folks grab yourself a listen to Bulgaria entry. What price would this ditty be if it were sung in English.
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Listened to the lot again and I must admit that Denmark could pose a threat to The Camel Man.
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one only has to go back to 2010 and a blonde girl with a guitar singing for Sweden...strongly fancied and actually failed to qualify.
Denmark's chances ?... i see a blonde girl with a guitar ! Sweden 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O6oM4J2o1w&feature=related Denmark 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7uN0mmH_K0 |
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Hope u r right Milan. Its the Camel all the way for moi.
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Bulgaria wouldn't win if sung in English, Sunshine....but would certainly do better and do well on the Euro club scene as well I guess.
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Money on here just now for Sweden and Italy dropping a fair bit I see.
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What's behind the big money backing Russia (£1200 waiting to back in the right 3 columns an hour ago and no doubt it will come back)?
Price still seems much to low. |
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* too
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Hi Henry good to have you back. Couldn't be arsed a few weeks ago to go to stan's at lunch time at work to put 30 on Italy at 33/1. Cost me as I ended up at 15s-18s. I can see the judges loving Italy with her Amy tribute act.
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Though I did have 25 on at 40s early doors on Italy with SpBet thank goodness.
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I have to admit to being slightly concerned by Italy's rise to 2nd favourite but is the song really 'all that'?
No impact for me - not in same league as Norway! |
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Please post a link if anyone's knows of a live version of Italy. I haven't found one yet.
I like L'Amore È Femmina. But more objectively Zilli's a great performer, and juries like established artists, (and Italy are reasonably popular with the public). |