SHAPESHIFTER

To date, I have never posted the amounts that I risk when investing.  There's no point.  I'm not into the 'bravado' that goes with a big bet.  My personal 'rush' is when a read on an event goes right, regardless of the return.

For my 'lays', if one of the horses wins, I'll post the betfair SP as a guide.

Granted, there are a dozens of ways of creating more value or diminishing the risk of a bet with betfair, achieved by either trading or by using parallel markets on an event.

But why do people feel they need to "push up" their numbers? Reality is the best gauge of how you are at punting.

When I see blogs or sites posting results, why not stick to reality?  It's part of the game.

Several weeks ago, I came across 'Bet Share'.  Essentially it's a group of on-line tipsters who put up their NAP, Next Best and 'In With A Chance' for 5, 3 and 1 points respectively.

My main reason for watching the site was because to get a view on the 'wisdom of crowds', to see how selections where several "tipsters" all selected independently on the day.

What I noticed was various prices being posted on the same horse.  Some were overnights. Some morning.  Fair enough since, well, tipsters like to post "price at the time advised" that went into your e-mail at 3:30 AM.

But what wasn't happening was there was no "reductions" being put into the prices for non-runners after the time of posting.

The race that caught my eye yesterday was the 2:45 at Ffos Las and I wanted to see how it would be reported if the horse won.

Two tipsters selected Astra Hall as their 5 pt NAP:
letsgettipped
and
RacingT1pster on twitter

RacingT1pster put his out at around 8:45AM at 11/10 (2.10) which, in fairness, was attainable in the morning prior to 8:30. 

I don't know the time that letsgettipped advised, but it appeared on the 'bet share' forum in the morning at 2/1 (3.0)

Both these prices were posted as is on the 'bet share' forum.

With three non-runners by 9AM, the price was adjusted and was trading at around 1.60-1.70 on betfair roughly 4/7.

So any bets placed prior to 9AM, either 11/10 or 2/1 would, of course, need to be adjusted because of the reductions.

I repeat:

any bets placed prior to 9AM, either 11/10 or 2/1 would, of course, need to be adjusted because of the reductions.


Astral Hall won the race.

This morning, I returned to see how the winnings would be presented:

RacingT1pster on twitter:
Advised at 11/10
No web-site but tweeted:
Hope you took early prices on astra hall !!!!

letsgettipped (who is a subscription tipster)
Advised 2/1 (3.0)
web-site shows 2/1 +10 pts
No indication of the reductions involved

But, for me, what stood out was what 'bet share' did with the results.

Not only did 'bet share' keep letsgettipped at 2/1 showing a 10 pt gain but they CHANGED RacingT1pster from 11/10 to 2/1 (his original 11/10 still on his twitter).

'Bet share' is a site keeps a collective running on how their tipsters do each month.  It attracts people to the site which is driven by advertising and/or supported by the industry.

Collectively, this ups their tally for the month by 2 tipsters times +- 7 pts = 14 pts.

Surely the returns on their bets that day would have shown the adjustments.  But no one stepped forward to present the proper figures.

It's too bad.  A collective site with decent tipsters contributing isn't a bad thing.  But one with 'make believe' numbers doesn't give a proper perspective on how tough this game is.


This post isn't about 'debunking' tipsters. To each their own and 'buyer beware'

But, for me, it's an example of how gamblers feel the need to 'bend' their results rather than present their true abilities.

I truly believe integrity is one of the elements you need to take on board to become a better punter.  Sites, blogs and forums aside, take it on board for your own approach to gambling: if you lie to yourself, twist the numbers to up the 'bravado' of your presentation, it simply distracts you from improving or finding the markets you do well in.

It feels really good when it all comes together in a 'real way'.