SHAPESHIFTER

I recently started looking at horse racing from a few different angles and one I have been looking at is identifying horses that are listed as faves but when looking at their previous runs, found their runs were against a mainly poor field.

I determine this by taking a favorite then selecting races where it ran well (not necessarily the previous run) then looking at how the horses it beat did after that.

Simply put, if a horse finished 3rd in the first week of April, I look at how the horses it beat performed AFTER that date. 

If the horses it beat barely placed, then it was weak competition.

If the horses it ran better than ran better after that, winning and solidly placing against various fields, then it was a stronger field and the favorite is possibly more deserving.

This is simply a starting point to create a long list.   But they do stand out very quickly.

From there, a simple lay may be in order.  Or it may be looking down the field and finding a horse of value to take on the fave.

It's simply one more tool to help make selections for a day.