Cider not taking Binface at face value, seeing him as a threat is hilarious.

And we have all this to do again if frogface wins.

Do you laugh out loud at ice lolly jokes? I suppose it must the ones inside budget Christmas crackers that really get you going :)

I'd love to know who you think would have won if they hadn't have bottled it.

Nobody is crying except cider.

Farage thought enquiries into his frauds would be ended by this charade and waste of money, instead we have records set for length of ballot paper.

Get the enquiries restarted, stock up on popcorn...

today's the day


g'luck with your bets

#GoBinface, #WinItForBritain

Which of Reform's manifesto promises do you think will attract the most voters?

List of promises

1) m̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶m̶o̶v̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶e̶y̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶v̶i̶a̶ ̶c̶r̶y̶p̶t̶o̶ ̶e̶a̶s̶i̶e̶r̶ 
(deleted from website a couple of days after this by election was called)

2) ??
There is no number 2, Reform have not published any other manifesto promises

£7k person out this morning heavily backing Count Binface vote percentage under 10%, taking all prices down to 3.0 on one exchange. They must be very confident.

Yes, very true. Also Farage is a recognised figure in America. This has added to the market being skewed in his favour.

Farage now trading at odds on in the 70-79.99% vote share market. That looks a bit short for a relatively narrow window.

Small poll out at 5pm, sounds very small
but guy was interviewing clactonites.

Once votes are verified they can release turnout.

Dunno how quick they are down there, but midnite, ish I'd expect, maybe 11.30 if they get a rush on, or maybe as late as 1am,1.30am.

Guessing.

On 11th August, Survation conducted a second telephone poll in the constituency of 102 adults, this time with no candidate or party read out at all. This smaller sample would serve as an experiment in prompting, and as a second wave to be combined with the first poll.

Why poll without prompting?

At 34 candidates, the field for this by-election is the largest ever. The physical ballot is almost 1 metre long. Survation’s preferred method is to read respondents the full list of candidates, but with 34 names that wasn’t feasible, so our first poll read out a shortened field.

The uniqueness of this by-election and the shortened candidate list led our chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe to question whether prompting only the “main” candidates would overstate their support, particularly for Farage and Binface.

So we returned to the field, and didn’t prompt at all. Respondents told us, in their own words, who they would vote for. If someone named a party that is not standing, for example Labour or the Conservatives, they were told that party is not contesting the seat, but were not told who is.

The unprompted wave

The result of the second, smaller sample was similar to the first. Farage increased his vote share from 73% to 79%. Count Binface increased slightly to 21%. Gerry Smith was the only other candidate besides Farage or Binface to be named unprompted, and sits at 1% in this sample.

This sample should be considered an exploratory experiment. The small sample size carries a margin of error of ±10%, but allows us to compare results with the existing poll.

So, three polls by Survation giving Count Binface a vote share of 20,21 and 31%.

Legal requirement is to only mention it is taking place and state the number of candidates, but not to name them.

Polymarket have Binface 10-20% of the vote at 1.54 favourite

UK - By-Election -- Clacton By Election - Count Binface Vote Share

6 Runners            £25,601 Matched

			111.3%		100.9%
4.99% or less	40	50	70		120	140	150	£2,547
	£2	£46	£34		£2	£2	£2
5.00-9.99%	7.6	8	8.6		9.8	10	70	£1,965
	£2	£1	£1		£16	£10	£2
10.00-14.99%	1.03	4	4.1		4.5	4.6	10	£2,815
	£10	£8	£2		£2	£21	£21
15.00-19.99%	2.62	2.74	2.8		3	3.05	3.45	£3,281
	£13	£4	£6		£11	£40	£1
20.00-24.99%	4.9	5	5.5		6.2	7	10.5	£2,775
	£1	£1	£11		£1	£2	£21
25.00% or more	4.8	4.9	5		5.5	5.9	6	£12,219
	£1	£1	£7		£1	£2	£5

Polymarket have Farage 70-80% at 2.08,  80%+ at 2.56

UK - By-Election -- Clacton By Election - Reform Vote Share

6 Runners            £8,846 Matched

			114.6%		80.5%
49.99% or less	21	23	24		320	480	1000	£985
	£2	£1	£1		£2	£34	£4
50.00-59.99%	11	12	12.5		70	80	200	£721
	£2	£7	£54		£2	£2	£2
60.00-69.99%	3.35	3.5	3.75		8.8	14.5	29	£1,860
	£175	£8	£3		£1	£2	£2
70.00-79.99%	2.1	2.12	2.14		2.2	2.42	2.46	£3,510
	£9	£303	£10		£200	£2	£2
80.00-89.99%	3	3.25	3.5		4.6	4.8	4.9	£1,130
	£2	£1	£1		£6	£193	£8
90.00% or more	7.2	55	200		500	700	960	£641
	£2	£2	£2		£2	£3	£2

In that Survation poll of 102 people, the raw numbers were..

Reform 41
Count Binface 20
Other 1

The rest were undecided, refused to say or will not vote. Survation then weighted those figures using the 2024 General Election.

30k--40k was trading at 7.2 jumped into 1.09 on polymarket

43% turnout... have any other outlets put out a figure?


=34,400 pinch of salt votes

scenarios
Farage 25k, Binface 7k, Good win
22k, 9k, ok win
20k, 10k, hmmmm
18k, 12k, oops

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