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Cider, You've got so much to say ITT, but seems you can't think of anything worth saying about the clacton by-election
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In the words of prof Jason Arday, poultry
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Clacton constituency facts
At 50, the average age of people here is 10 years older than the England average A third of the working-age population is economically inactive – compared to fewer than one in five in the East of England One in four has a disability, compared to 17% in England 20% of neighbourhoods in the Tendring district are highly deprived, of which most are around Clacton and Jaywick Source: Office for National Statistics Many of the woke right call the economically inactive and those on PIP skivers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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We are wasting 0.4% of our total government expenditure on migrants,this 0.4%% is bankrupting the country,farage knows this has to stop,it can’t go on,the clever and well informed people of jaywick know this,they think it’s disgusting that these people sit around all day waiting for free hand outs,the hard working people of Clacton will vote to stop these benefits.even if it means all benefits are abolished,
This just sums up the views of the left. Being flippant with billions of pounds of taxpayers money whilst trying to demean the working classes concerns and their intelligence. Could you not just throw in a reference to Wetherspoons and gammons to complete everyones Champagne socialist bingo card? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Someone stuck around £7K on one of the exchanges today on Count Binface vote percentage market. Maybe there is a poll coming out?
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Somebody said they thought he was on for high 20s.
Not really seen much to get involved,.. A 500 poll by telephone | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The £7K punter is heavily backing less than 10% and laying 20% and above, as if no other result is possible.
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Sounds like our manipulator has more cash to lose.
Refuk had office expenses of 8.5 million, I wonder if that includes any punting... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Any turnout markets?
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Not that I can find but lower than normal you would think likely but who knows with the unique situation of this one?
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I was thinking low, but didn't see any markets.
Farage on for 70% of 40% turnout, perhaps??? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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That would seem a reasonable guesstimate to me.
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Fewest Votes For Any Candidate is an interesting market at Brokelads.
Under 4.5 8/11 Over 4.5 Evens | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ha ha, brilliant, I'd be over 4.5 for 10p or so...
I'll go 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think it will be less than 4.5. 34 candidates, 29 or so don't count.
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0 votes for at least one candidate can't be ruled out.
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fatface is likely to vote for himself
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I work on you need so many to nominate you
Then they usually get engaged enough to vote There are an extraordinary number of candidates so anything is possible. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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One day to go. A quite extraordinary by election with extreme volatility on the betting markets. A fair example would be the Count Binface vote share market on here, with options such as 5-9.99% being backed at prices from 4.0 to 19.0. I would be surprised if that comes in but this is a very unusual event.
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As you say yak, it's a truely extraordinary and unique by-election.
Engineered by a poundland reality TV contestant in an attempt to sieze the narrative and divert it away from pressing questions on the source of dodgey crypto linked to convicted money launderers, and portray it as himself, the nobel gallant hero fighting the hoardes of evil. The cast refused to play along, and sir galahad has been forced to do his peacocking display fighting against a dustbin. His scheme for a victorious return to parliament with a bag full of his rivals scalps and dine out on stories of the battle in the years to come has floundered, he will win, but he and his supporters will flinch and cringe when ever this by-election is mentioned. Nobody knows just how big his meaningless victory will be. I'm betting that the madlad brit standing up for britain against the foreign billionaires will get 20% or more of the vote. #GoBinface, #WinItForBritain
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I am much the same. The more the share of the vote Count Binface receives, the more I win.
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If Count Binface receives less than 5% of the vote, I will be wiped out.
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I wouldn't go spending it just yet.
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I've been low on Binface all along. Shame about the Survation poll in that regard. This is Clacton. Not Middle England. Reform's core support is intractable regardless of what evidence there is to the contrary, and Clacton is a region of white poverty, on the coast, and of low education. Perfect for the incumbent. Farage had the pick of constiuencies and he chose Clacton for good reason. It isn't for Binface. He's too polished and the nuance of his jokes appeal to intellectuals and arty types, not Clactonites. Noise doesn't equal votes for joke contestants. I'd really question the motivation to vote when he realistically can't win. I'd be surprised if he managed over 20% myself. I'm annoyed I didn't get properly stuck in, but I had this fear in the back of my mind that Farage might walk away.
Of course it's a unique situation so we don't know. The irony of the joke contestant is that I honestly think he'd be more beneficial to Clacton than Farage | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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the nuance of his jokes appeal to intellectuals and arty types
Can you give me an example of a 'nuanced' joke? Or him being 'polished'? (it's not wearing fancy costume) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"the nuance of his jokes appeal to intellectuals and arty types"
Sorry Cider but you walked straight into that one ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fatface isn't clever or intellectual. Well I should caveat, the fatface creation isn't clever or intellectual. The establishment needed an anti Farage narrative for this, and he lucked out.
The original spitting image, he is not. However, I am open to being convinced as I love political satire as much as anyone. Even politicians that aren't idiots. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'm not claiming to be intellectual or arty. But you have identified output of his that appeals to those that are. So I'm asking for an example. Just one would suffice :)
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The folks that will vote for Binface will be fairly certain that he won't win. Their motivation is to vote against Farage with the best option available.
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Intel Lady is in a different league from what I've seen (but obviously wouldn't appeal to bbc / guardian hangers)
There's no way i will have seen all of fatface's content though, so it may will be the case that I've missed out on some good stuff. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Genuinely, that partly explains why I feel he will fall pretty flat. His shtick just isn't funny. So you wear a fancy dress bin, and... He is relying on people playing the establishment ball and using him as the anti Farage vote. But I would agree with you on that, the anti Farage vote in Clacton is a rather small catchment. People stupid enough to waste their time voting for someone wearing fancy dress makes it even smaller, in my opinion.
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Imo he is very clever/sharp and intellectual. I'd say easily top 1% of the population and arguably the smartest person in the room on most occasions you see him interviewed. It's evident on almost all footage. It's clear you don't appreciate it else you wouldn't be asking. You can watch the Oxford Union debate if you wish, (that's his audience, much like Clacton is Farage's imo) but I'm confident you won't see it.
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The modern 'Arday' version of the Oxford Union, no doubt. Yes, that would definitely be his audience.
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"The folks that will vote for Binface will be fairly certain that he won't win. Their motivation is to vote against Farage with the best option available."
Exactly. That's not a great motivating factor | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Runcorn & Helsby, Caerphilly, Gorton & Denton, Aberdeen South, Makerfield.
All these recent by-elections played out with a game changing increase in the "Anti" vote. Clacton? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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He isn't the best option available. For example, William Clouston is running I believe.
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I'm not disputing that some people aren't motivated. I'm just saying they are less motivated and less highly motivated generally.
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Well, what motivation can there be to go and cast your vote for someone you know is certain to win but will need to vote again in the event of a second by election after the Standards Investigation?
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Trying to educate 'politics punter' is quite amusing. He is completely blinded by what he personally wants to happen. The equivalent of a cockc bettor.
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Good point Escapee. No doubt the anti Reform vote is getting stronger and more mobilised, but I think there is a big difference when the main opposition is a joke candidate and they can't win. A lot of people who may have voted against Reform will feel insulted or indifferent by the Binface option. And ofc it's Clacton!
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