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Politics
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These 647 comments are related to the topic:
Clacton by election
Clacton by election
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Replies: 647
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Nige is a busted flush.
Even Kemi gets the better of him nowadays. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE NIGE
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Boreface has done well to keep a lid on it lately. The less he says the better his chances get
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyem5lg78qo
The longest ballot paper in British Electoral History. Count Binface third from top with Bin symbol  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The nutters standing in Clacton give nutters a bad name
Do you think one of the THREE Monster Raving Loony Party candidates is secretly LFC? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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First constituency poll by Survation. Farage 73%, Binface 20%.
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Survation also have a poll asking if Farage and Count Binface were the only two candidates, how would you vote? That comes in at 69 Farage, 31 Count Binface although I am not sure why Farage loses 4 points on that one.
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Post your bets. Or are you just FOS ?
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Cider, do you always post your bets when asked to?
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depends on the context. the thread is stacked with people talking up fatface's chances and talking down Farage's.
fratface is currently trading around 30. Only one poster has conceded to taking a position. It's extremely reasonable to ask those who still think there is some kind of race, to put up, or shut up. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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So that's a no then.
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Personally I have no issue with people knowing who my 50p is on.
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So that's a no then.
It's not a no. I don't put every bet I make up on here, far from it. I wouldn't just do it on demand, ie CONTEXT. If I am banging on positively, making a case for a position, if someone asked me to demonstrate I was putting my money where my mouth is, I would have absolutely no issue. In this example, it's all hot air. None of these people have backed fatface, or they are too ashamed to show that they will be losing money on sentiment betting. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I don't think you've ever posted a bet on here cider.
Anyway, who cares? Just the numpties who indignantly say "Post your Bets", which is a big flag they probably don't bet themselves anyway. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Are you hard of hearing or summat?
ya**** aka politics punter started this by election thread and has posted 50 times. eg yak hunt • July 11, 2026 9:01 AM BST IPSOS-Binface leads in Clacton poll. · In a hypothetical forced choice head-to-head, 1 in 3 British adults (33%) would prefer Count Binface to win the Clacton by-election, giving him a 12ppt lead over Farage (21%). 32% say neither. 13% don’t know. · Nearly 3 in 4 (74%) state that the parliamentary standards commissioner should be investigating whether the Reform UK leader broke parliamentary rules. · 73% say investigation should continue even if Farage wins the by-election. Public backing for parliamentary standards investigation · 16% think Nigel Farage is right to resign as an MP and stand for re-election to parliament in the resulting by-election. 16% think he should have continued as an MP. 54% think he should resign and leave parliament. · 74% state the standards commissioner should be investigating whether Mr. Farage broke rules by failing to declare a £5m gift received from a Reform UK donor before his election. · 73% of the public believe the investigation should continue even if Farage wins the upcoming by-election, compared to 15% who think it should not continue in these circumstances. · Meanwhile, the population is split on whether other parties should field candidates: 32% think other main political parties should not stand candidates, whereas 31% believe they should stand. Public prefer Count Binface to win in Clacton over Nigel Farage · When asked about the Clacton contest, 1 in 3 British adults (33%) would prefer Count Binface to win, while 21% prefer Nigel Farage and 32% choose neither. 13% don’t know. · 69% support Count Binface’s policy of restoring the price of a 99p flake to 99p, and 53% back capping croissant prices at £1. · However, other proposed policies have more middling support, with 36% opposing forcing rule-breaking cyclists to ride unicycles. Perhaps surprisingly, just 32% support abolishing VAR, compared to 21% who support abolishing the football technology He is still at it today yak hunt • August 2, 2026 1:46 PM BST https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyem5lg78qo The longest ballot paper in British Electoral History. Count Binface third from top with Bin symbol It's a non event in betting terms as far as I can see. Either politics punter has done his bowlocks, or is full of shyte. Quite possibly both, but I'm trying to tease out which one applies most. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General election 2024: Clacton
Turnout 45,958 58.0%
This by-election is unprecedented, a vote off between a seasoned reality TV contestant and a dustbin for a seat in parliament. The reality TV contestant, backed by foreign money is currently 1 to 30 on to win it against the british madlad, but win it by how much and what the voter turn out will be is pure guess work. Looking at 2024, at the election where Farage was at his peak, he won the seat with 46% of the votes with a 58% turn out. It's not an event with enough form to make any sizeable bets on. But I think there is a reasonable chance binface will get over 20% of the votes given farage could only get 46% of the votes at his peak. So I've started building a small position on that. Anything can happen, G'luck if you're betting on this. Bets matched so far:
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Thanks, at least you put it up. But the 2024 GE was not Farage's peak. Reform got 14% nationally. The council elections far superseded that.
You can have my last settled politics bet if you want. It's only pennies as I was only partially matched, and I didn't post 50 times arguing against Restore over a month. I had no reason to post it, or aftertime. IIRC I was going for 20 or 30 quid lay but they were soon 100+ and I was never going to get matched once the market realised the voting mechanism had been gerrymandered (the 20p was just to free up some funds). Politics > UK - Mayoral Elections : Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Odds Stake (£) Bid type Placed Profit/Loss (£) Restore Britain 36 4.80 Lay 23-Jun-26 10:47 4.80 Restore Britain 160 0.20 Back 30-Jul-26 14:50 -0.20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cider, I asked you a binary question to which your answer was no yes.
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How many people will turn out for fatface? I'd be bearish but not confident enough to bet on it. You'd have to be pretty bored to take time out of your day to go to the polling station and vote for a loser as a joke.
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It was a nebulous question, Norbert. The actual answer is how the fook should I know. I've been posting on here for 24 years. You expect me to recall every instance where someone has asked me to post my bets
I can definitely commit to doing so, if it was relevant/in context. Like starting a new betting thread and advocating for a position for a month. I'm not going to do something just because a poster demanded something, which may or may not have happened. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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How many MP's do they have?
How many of them have been or are being investigated for £££sleaze?
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If you are new to politics then the number of MPs is not correlated to the voting percentage across the electorate, as the British parliament has a first past the post, constituency system.
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Labour MP, Barry Gardiner received £500,000 from ‘Chinese agent’
Former Labour Shadow Cabinet Minister Barry Gardiner received £500,000 over six years from an alleged Chinese government agent. Former Labour Shadow Cabinet Minister Barry Gardiner, who received £500,000 over six years from an alleged Chinese government agent, has said he was “deeply distressed” to learn one of his biggest donors had been illegally trying to influence British politicians. oops | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If you think that is anything other than Tice forgetting to mention who funded a trip, you need your bumps felt. It's not quite the same as taking half a million off chinese state spies, I suspect.
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Tables up on Survation website for Clacton poll.
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If that Survation poll is reasonably accurate, the prices on here for Count Binface vote percentage of 15-19.99% and 20-24.99% look a tad generous.
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yak hunt • July 9, 2026 3:16 PM BST
I reckon he will achieve at least 20% of the vote share and potentially much higher. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No one knows reaaly, but I'd agree with yak hunt's guess a month ago.
What's your guess Cider?... What percent of votes will the dustbin get in the vote off between a dustbin and the pounland version of Alan Partridge? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Burnham is already on holiday I think you'll find.
I have no idea really, how would you put a % on that. As I have covered many times, my specialty is Specials, and Fatface is analogous to specials. A joke runner like Jedward or Vine, that everyone knows will ultimately flop. RTV before apps and emails came down to motivation, and the motivation to keep the joke acts going. As voting required a bit of effort. In so much as fatface being considered a genuine runner in this event being humorous (I personally don't see the humour, but many are seemingly still guffawing over it), that's the joke in of itself. I feel like the joke has already run it's course, and it requires significant motivation to take time out of your day to journey to the polling station for a bin that won't win. That's a longish way of stating that I feel it will be very low on actual numbers. But what would stop me betting on it is that the result is a %, and that % relies on turnout. Similar potential apathy applies for the likely winner, and taking time out of your day to vote for Farage will win anyway. We saw the terrible turnout for Manchester mayor, for example. In short fatface's (or Farage's for that matter) percentage is not a betting prop for me, in numbers of actual votes I'd go circa 4K. Total guess and it's not a confident call. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's that motivation thing again. I made a lot of money out of voting on a poll being a lot easier than voting for real. If I was betting on it, I'd look it up, but what counts most is not who you would vote for in theory. That's pretty easy to do with fatface and the level of positive publicity he has enjoyed from the media. Voting for real, not so easy.
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Betting reflecting morals doesn't make much sense to me. Personal view is irrelevant, other than it can inform your plays. Just as an example, that former Tory idiot who does a podcast lost a bundle betting on Harris in the potus election, apparently. So personal views can inform your plays in the wrong direction, betting on what you want to happen. I suppose it depends on how you are wired and how you bet, I bet off instinct and that instinct is formed by my personal views. It works for me, but I'm sure it will all go wrong at some point!
There are untold threads on here where people can spit out their incessant smearing of Reform and Farage, informed by the likes of the bbc, times and grauniad. This thread should ideally be centred around the betting on the by election. Obviously general discourse can feed into that, but it was full of people waaanking off over the legacy media creation, fatface, but weren't putting a bean on him, so I decided to call them out. Some of your claims are ludicrous, H. You're not thick and I'm sure you're aware that where the country sits in the pecking order of global GDP is completely irrelevant to the personal lives of citizens of that country still living in it. But I am not inclined to pick it apart, here. Jason Arday is a poster boy for what immigration has done for the UK, and it has f all to do with GDP. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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GDP is not irrelevant, it means new tube lines or train lines, subsidised buses etc. And once a country has achieved a certain development GDP is largely based on population size. (All Brexit did was stop immigration from the higher IQ countries eg Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia).
Wokism is a tragedy. Maybe Arday illuminated it, I don't know. For the first time in US history many Democrats are really socialists, never thought I'd see that. But unlike the UK, US firms can mostly move to a non Democrat state if they're in one of the 4 or 5 extreme states. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hard to believe what I am reading. Why would you need new tube lines or train lines?
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If you think Brexit 'stopped immigration' from any country, sorry to say, you have no idea what you are talking about. All Brexit did was put give the control back to democratically elected politicians. The fact that they flat out lied, and did the complete opposite of what they promised for over a decade, was not the fault of being able to control immigration again.
But as I alluded to, I'm really not inclined to be debating about Brexit right now, especially as I was critical about people pulling this thread off topic  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Back to gambling talk
In 2024 Farage got 21,225 of the 45,958 votes. Of those 24,733 people who didn't vote for Farage, how many will be motivated to vote against him next week? In recent by-elections, turnout has increased vs general election. This time is a complete unknown, it's assumed it will drop, but if it doesn't then an upset is possible.
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As noted, I bet on instinct and my instinct is to leave this one alone. Too many variables that are difficult to get a handle on. Farage has never been under threat in my opinion, fatface is a media creation. So is Burnedout to be fair, but I don't see fatface carrying through to the ballot box with enough traction to actually win the seat. If it meant the end of 2TK, that would be different. Predicting the turnout is guesswork, other than it's probably likely to be pretty low. But I know of a source that says Farage has had a good operation in the constituency. Best left alone.
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. I cannot recall every time someone has asked me to post my bets. So sorry to disappoint. I can absolutely assure you, if I started a new betting thread and been advocating for a certain position for a month, I will have mentioned my bets.