Farage tried to hide his

Said his Russian pay masters hacked his phone

Said he reported the hacking

There is no record of the alleged hack being reported

tick tock

The Rest Is Politics have done an expose into Trump's corruption.  It's quite breathtaking

Hopefully it's as good as their investigation into the Biden family.

I was thinking today about the number of times that parties have been mistaken for another.

Liberal, LibDem, Libertarian.
Conservative, Conservatory and Unionist.
Labour, Socialist Labour

They have appeared together on the ballot and have impacted the final result in the past. How about these two?

Reform
Restore Britain

Literal Democrat was another.

Happens a lot in usa too

You'd think the candidates would make folk more
aware of the logo to vote for too.

It's clearly an issuea,and clearly impacts results.

I think 5-10% is most likely but 10-15% is more likely than 0-5%

I was wondering whether seeing as Trump can grant himself and his family and friends immunity from prosecution as President, whether he or his family could instead be extradited and face war crimes and corruption charges abroard?

Our manipulator can't do side markets...

Something that seems a little odd. The Restore 10-15% price is shortening, indicating some level of increased confidence that they are making progress. Yet, if that were true, the Reform price to win should be going out in price. It's not, it's shortening.

mods knocked the last post back ,edited version ..............restore are targeting former makerfield non voters ,those who didnt bother voting in previous campaigns as they took the view nothing will change ,by some accounts are having some success ,that doesnt mean they will vote for restore but hopefully a better turnout this time ,we shall see.

Ok, but if we had a more up to date poll, prices could collapse if Restore are indeed making progress into the Reform vote. Labour would be almost certain to win if Restore are taking a reasonably significant chunk of it.

1. People really feel the weight of the vote. People are *far* more engaged than I've had in a by-election. For some its a burden, some a privilege. They don't see this as just electing 1 MP, but a decision with UK wide ramifications
2. There's a bit of a frustration with the Ashton focus. A few residents have said the media don't seem to realise there are other bits of the constituency. Those in Ashton though are embarrassed about the regen works and think it's the wrong time to shine a spotlight. Business owners think the media are putting people off buying things.
3. In a twist, people really seem to like Josh Simons. Across groups people can point to things he's done, interactions they've had on issues like flooding/development - no other group in a seat occupied by a member of the 24 intake as the local MP got that level of praise. Many say they started sceptical, but that he spent time on facebook getting into their concerns or meeting them in libraries etc. Some wonder what the quid pro quo is for standing down, others think it brave and not like most politicians.
4. While the groups split on Kenyon vs Burnham, they are united in dislike of PM. This is definitely one of the more hostile areas for Starmer we've visited. For some vote Burnham to get Starmer out is attractive, for others it's hard to conceive voting Labour might be the best way to change PM.
5. There is going to be a lot of nose holding. Versions of "I don't like Labour but I don't want Reform" "If it weren't Burnham i'd never vote Labour" "I don't like Farage but we've got to get Labour out" "I'd vote Restore but they can't win" Voting 'against' is now a major feature of our politics.
6. Burnham's record as mayor is respected and people appreciate him as a contrast with Starmer. But there are weaknesses 1. Some think the image he portrays of Manchster is too rosy and "ignores the spice heads" 2. The abortive low emissions zone is biggest black spot on his record.
7. But above all if I were Burnham based on what we've heard I would frame the whole campaign about why places like Makerfield will be better with him as an MP. people aren't naive, they know this isn't just about their seat. But they want to know why having Burnham in parliament and eventaully as PM will benefit them - lots talk about the north/south divide, Burnham is seen as a champion of the north - but what are the 5 'Makerfield tests' he'd apply in the future.
8. Kenyon's past comments split people, particuarly women, some say everyone says stupid things, others question if they're real, but a sizeable group are put off by them - and in particular the failure of Kenyon to make a proper apology. Many said if he'd apologised properly it would matter less. Substantively the comment about abortion probably seems like it might matter more than the sexist/misogynist comments, and there a degree of 'mind your own business'
9. For Kenyon his strength. story about being outside of the establishment - different to politics as usual and send a message. There is no doubt worries about immigration is an issue in Makerfield even more so than elsewhere - though others still worry the party has no wider plan
10. Restore - who knows if it'll end up with any votes or be squeezed but there's no doubt they've cut through with voters who have noticed their presence.. Some on the right are mainly worried about them splitting the vote and I suspect a Reform squeeze message would land.

would have though they'd have chosen someone with better oratory skills.

He's too much of a geezer for progressives to be impressed, but does he hold much chance in garnering the Guardian reading trans adoring and Gaza obsessed vote? Of course he doesn't. I have no idea which candidate favours a good turnout but whoever can get their vote out, wins.

As by elections go, it doesn't get much bigger than this.

whoever can get their vote out, wins is the kind of political insight that attracts literally dozens of people to this forum.

It's not my reading, this is all about burnham and the 'anti' vote.

The camps, have you completely given up on labour and want them out asap. Then you vote Reform. If you still like the labour party but think starmer is useless, then you'd go for burnham. If you want to see starmer as pm, then you won't vote (must be a few?).

I don't see many people that would vote for burnham in the election that would not vote labour otherwise.

As everyone is aware, it's an odd dynamic, to vote for the party that you are dissatisfied with, because the individual is highly like to take over the party and country if he wins (and have nothing to do with the constituency). ie, you're being used.

yes 'right wing' students are so welcome in educational settings

Did you see the recent published clip of the red queen talking to young students ?