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Next Prime Minister market

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By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 13:32
Anyone who wants to be PM has to appeal to the great majority of British people so it's not surprising they won't appeal to the nutjobs* on this forum.




* antivaxers, people who fear lizards, racists etc etc
By:
Timber
When: 10 Jul 22 13:42
Uncle Nobby aka Alastair Campbell
By:
Timber
When: 10 Jul 22 13:46
Bill Gates, PURE EVIL
Obviously Nobby thinks it's ok for Gates to admit injecting genetically modified organisms in little kids arms

He literally says it on camera FFS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_hOSfHUJV4&ab_channel=PetterErlands
By:
frog1000
When: 10 Jul 22 13:46
Certainly the more I read the more worried I get.

What is wrong with these people?

Vaccines and the Climate Agenda are not the answer to people not being able to afford food and heat or see a doctor in a timely manner.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 13:58
Most meat sold in the UK has been raised on GM crops so I take it Timber is a vegan.
By:
lux
When: 10 Jul 22 14:20
Norbert

I think that should read … Anyone who wants to be PM has to appeal to the great majority of British people …. by paying lip service to their most pressing concerns whilst pursuing a policy in diametrical opposition.

eg

2010 -2018 repeated pledges to cut immigration to “the tens of thousands” Cameron to May

2019 a pledge to “cut overall immigration” Patel

2021 – Highest levels on record – one million visas issued to foreign nationals.


These people are bandits, all of em, absolute filth. And anyone giving any credence to this pantomime needs to give their head a good wobble.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 14:34
Yeah I know a lot of Tory party members are racists and don't want dirty foreigners coming to the country but if you want a functioning economy then you need a good supply of cheap labour.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 14:37
I don't think Rishi will win if he gets to the last two and now I am beginning to wonder if he will get to the last two at all. Every man, woman and his dog seem to be in the stop Sunak gang.
By:
johnnythebull
When: 10 Jul 22 14:46
well put ur money where ur mouth is or u ain't saying a darn thing
2.92 > 3.0 to lay for a grand..free money,then?
By:
ghostlygunner
When: 10 Jul 22 14:49
dont usually bet on these markets but there is clearly something i am not understanding,  so hopefully one of you boys can enlighten me

general election is 1.35 to be in 2024 as expected, and 15.5 to be this year

if there was one this year , consensus is labour would win , or certainly be odds on

now that the threat of starmer resigning has gone he would surely be leader in that case if there were one this year

so why is starmer 200/1 to be next prime minister?

i understand that with a vote of no confidence tories are unlikely to side with him but surely he must play that card now having said he would?

it will make anyone who supports johnson look rather stupid and highlight them putting a corrupt party over the countrys best interests?

or does a caretaker like raab for example get paid out as the next minister should they back johnson in a vonc?

either way something doesnt stack up here ?
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 14:56
The winner of the current Conservative leader election will become the PM. It's the Government that decide when the next General election is held so it's highly unlikely one would be called without a new PM in place.
By:
lux
When: 10 Jul 22 14:59
Norbert

I'm happy to post plenty of studies evidencing a net fiscal/social deficit/cost, but that would be irrelevant to my main point. Which is that...

You believe that the democratic will of the people should be overridden if it contradicts your own worldview?

Apologies if i'm mistaken but that's how your post reads.
By:
ghostlygunner
When: 10 Jul 22 15:00
thanks pp,  so what happens if the tories support labours vonc, would whoever faced starmer have to be declared permanent pm before it? or just a caretaker one?
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 15:01
In parliament any vote of no confidence would be on the government not Boris. Tory MPs would have no issues voting against a vote of no confidence.
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:02
An election next year is a decent price, imo. Even though it's obviously not a presidential system, every PM that has took the role up mid term in my adult lifetime has struggled for authority.
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:03
It will be even worse, and no honeymoon period with the cost of lockdown crisis.
By:
ghostlygunner
When: 10 Jul 22 15:05
thanks snc   , cant actually believe some of the dross in the betting, we re fckd either way it seems

most of them are as complicit and corrupt as johnson!
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:05
My suspicion is the msm and Labour fanboys won't try to force a general election until spring, once we're past the worst stuff but people will still be hurting.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 15:14
lux

Politicians can and do promise all kinds of bollox. At the end of the day the economy comes 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th because it it falters the government falls.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 15:17
Whether there is an election next year will depend on the cost of living crisis.

How that goes could come down to how cold this winter is.
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:19
The cost of lockdown crisis is baked in. The energy firms will collect the DDs whether it's very cold or not. You can be pretty confident that the cap won't be favourable for the gvnt.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 15:19

Jul 10, 2022 -- 3:00PM, ghostlygunner wrote:


thanks pp,

By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:21
I'd make a 2023 election fav personally. There are still a lot of Boris fans about, and when it goes t1ts up, the new administration will get the blame from them too.
By:
lux
When: 10 Jul 22 15:22
So you don't believe in democracy. Thanks for clarifying.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 15:24
If it's a freezing winter in Europe the price of gas will shoot up and the price cap review in spring might put the cost up over £4k a year for the average household.

In my opinion that will require the government to nationalise old gas fields and get fracking.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 15:30
Believe in democracy?

No such thing. Every person would have to vote on every decision.

And FPTP is way less democratic than PR
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 15:35
Enter stage right Priti Patel ?
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 15:49
During covid hysteria, we had incessant coverage of other countries to make it difficult for the gvnt, for the cost of lockdown crisis we don't get any mainstream coverage of it happening in other countries. Have a guess why.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 16:15
I was in Portugal in 2020 and there was a lockdown.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 10 Jul 22 16:18
And I couldn't drive home as both Spain and France were in lockdown.
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 16:27
That's my point, mainstream media wanted lockdowns, restrictions and handouts. They don't want regular joe to know the cost of lockdown crisis is the same, or worse elsewhere.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 16:42
Nadime Zahawi...

The Independent reported that HM Revenue and Customs were investigating his tax affairs, after the case had been transferred to them from the National Crime Agency's International Corruption Unit.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 16:43
Who still thinks Zahawi can win?
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 10 Jul 22 16:47
You're great at pointing out what everybody knows, politicspunter.

You voted Leave, I believe.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 16:48
Chris Skidmore: Conservative MPs don’t need the equivalent of Lord Buckethead on the ballot paper this week

Chris Skidmore was Universities, Science, Research and Innovation Minister 2018-19 and 2019-20, and is MP for Kingswood.
Sometimes in life you have to be cruel to be kind.
And while I don’t mean to be cruel to some of my colleagues, the firing of the starting gun of a Conservative Party leadership race (now an all too familiar sound) inevitably results not just in a crowded field gathering for the start of this political Grand National; it quickly descends into the farce of many of these candidates falling lamentably at the first hurdle – or failing to even get out of the starting blocks.
For some, taking soundings from colleagues or false friends, believe they actually have a chance of winning. Others clearly calculate that standing might raise their profile in the hope of a ministerial job.
Either way, allowing any backbench MP (step forward Alfred J Prufrock) and their dog to be nominated for the leadership contest with barely a handful of supporters encourages those with perhaps less self-awareness than one might hope to put themselves forward ‘willing to serve’, with ‘fresh ideas’ that inexplicably are never actually articulated.
Still, if this is rewarded with a seat in the Today studios or an appearance on Newsnight, perhaps the colleague thinks that this is job done. Some sensibly retreat after this, backing the candidate they had always planned to from the start. Others, having by this time taken too many swigs of the Kool Aid or publicity, press on – to the inevitable car crash of not getting enough signatures to be nominated, or being the first to be eliminated in the first round.
During the last leadership election, colleagues needed just eight nominations to stand in the contest – two per cent of the Parliamentary Party. No deposit was required, either. Contrast this with a general election, in which joke or vexatious candidates are eliminated from the start with the threshold of a deposit which is subsequently lost if less than five per cent of the vote is received.
It is clear that with the Conservative Party in government and the next leader automatically becoming the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the consequences of this election is of utmost importance and seriousness. The eyes of the world will be watching the contest, which needs serious candidates who already command the support of a sizeable number of colleagues. This is not the time for narcissism.
Rather, it is time that the 1922 committee looked at revising the rules of the contest so that within the truncated timetable of the election, colleagues are presented immediately with a realistic field of contenders – each of them potential candidates for Prime Minister – rather than suffer the Conservative equivalent of Lord Buckethead on the ballot paper.
That’s why when the new 1922 executive meets on Monday, they should agree to change the rules of the contest so that no candidate can stand without ten per cent of the selectorate nominating them. At the very least, perhaps 20 MPs should be the threshold, weeding out time wasters who never have a chance of winning. Serious times demand serious candidates. Then we can focus on the policies – and not the personalities – that matter.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 10 Jul 22 16:53
Penny Mordaunt has released a new video, no longer featuring the murderer, Oscar Pistorius, the athlete, Jonnie Peacock (who asked to be removed from her video), Dame Sarah Gilbert (one assumes she also asked to be removed) and several ‘war’ clips. So far, Jo Cox is still in it.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 16:58
I don't recall Oscar Pistorius in version one? Jonnie Peacock is the sprint blade runner.
By:
politicspunter
When: 10 Jul 22 17:00
The race to replace Boris Johnson, afternoon update (10 July)

Sunak: 30 MPs (+12)
Mordaunt: 18 (+11)
Hunt: 12 (+10)
Truss: 12 (+6)
Tugendhat: 12 (+6)
Badenoch: 11 (+5)
Zahawi: 10 (+7)
Braverman: 9 (-)

Chgs. w/ 24hrs ago

Drilldown:
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/07/conservative-leadership-election-who-backing-replace-boris-johnson/
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jul 22 17:07
Mr Hunt, if elected PM, would want Ms McVey as his deputy. That's has put me off even if his inclination to re-join EU has not.

Mr Sunak is probably the cleverest of the lot, but I do not trust me eg Green Card. I do not think he's as much empathy to the lesser able folks; he was generous during the pandemic, but a hike in NI so soon after is not the way forward esp in the present level of increasing inflation.

If only the people are allowed to vote for their choice of PM and dep PM of the winning most seats Party. I think Labour despite in opposition since 2010 is still in a re-building and infancy stage to govern.

Personally, I'd like to see Mr Hunt, Ms Truss and Mr Javid for the top 3 jobs in government for me.
By:
Cider
When: 10 Jul 22 17:20
Most people forget, but Rishi unveiled a bunch of tax hikes before covid and lockdowns were a thing. The subsequent NI hike was supposedly hypothecated for social care (eventually).
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