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Next Prime Minister market
Next Prime Minister market
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That's the thing though -the party membership may have picked Badenoch but they have been left with the choice of The Maybot v2 or Sunak
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why are raab and starmer still in the betting?
i understood before the vote of no confidence but not now is it still people greening up to free up funds, or is there a feeling somehow johnson wont be replaced in september ! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Until the new PM is installed, Betfair won't settle the market.
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Conservative leader market is better.
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Is Mordant really a dead duck in 3 hours?
The market has got this process wrong more times than it's got it right
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I thought the market had got every eviction correct.
Whilst seeing plenty churn on the safe candidates. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yeah, the market got the evictions right i.e. the bottom end, but at the top end, all 3 have been odds on favourites
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UK (GB), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus poll:
Scenario: Liz Truss is CON~ECR leader LAB-S&D: 37% (+4) CON~ECR: 25% (-20) LDEM-RE: 16% (+4) GREENS-G/EFA: 9% (+6) REFORM~NI: 3% (+1) +/- vs. 2019 election Fieldwork: 18-19 July 2022 Sample: 1,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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UK (GB), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus poll:
Scenario: Penny Mordaunt is CON~ECR leader LAB-S&D: 36% (+3) CON~ECR: 27% (-18) LDEM-RE: 15% (+3) GREENS-G/EFA: 9% (+6) REFORM~NI: 3% (+1) +/- vs. 2019 election Fieldwork: 18-19 July 2022 Sample: 1,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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UK (GB), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus poll:
Scenario: Rishi Sunak is CON~ECR leader LAB-S&D: 37% (+4) CON~ECR: 25% (-20) LDEM-RE: 15% (+3) GREENS-G/EFA: 10% (+7) REFORM~NI: 4% (+2) +/- vs. 2019 election Fieldwork: 18-19 July 2022 Sample: 1,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If the market is right and Liz Truss now becomes Prime Minister, the Tories are doomed to lose the next election.
She is a hopeless communicator with little grasp of economics and little respect from a great chunk of her party. Not sure the others are much better but Liz as next Prime Minister looks very bad news for GB, for the Tories and a further indication of how desperate the Tories position now is. Of course her election is going to be another very strong reason why Scotland’s freedoms is getting ever closer, but the damage she’ll do is much more worrying. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yes, the MPs seem totally out of touch with the membership.
Kemi would've reinvigorated the Tory brand. Mordaunt could've done similar if not for her flip flop on the trans issue. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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With "So much talent to choose from"...right.
Liz Truss might be the best. It says little for the rest. I do wonder if Sunak/Truss do make the final 2, that once we see a head to head debate, the ever so vacant Liz might be found out. It's whether the Mail's unrelenting support can convince party members that what they see isn't true, and she really is an intellectual heavyweight. Sunak might be an out of touch Billionaire, but he does seem much brighter than, Liz, and Johnson, but then who isn't. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tories still Fav to gain
most seats at next election... 1.85 back 1.90 lay Labour 2.06 / 2.18 I hope betfair have a next prime minister Market ready for 6th September. Could Truss survive 2 years? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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can we trust the next election not to be **** though?
otherwise that 2.06 could be one of the best even money bets of the century :-) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Truss must be absolutely brilliant behind the scenes because in front of the cameras, she must be the most charmless politician I've ever seen.
The only plus if she gets the job, is that Stonewall & their trans agenda will take a hit. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Whichever candidates get thru today's MP vote [and I find it hard to guess who will with Penny still being good value at 6's], there are several weeks for stuff-ups - anything could and possibly will happen. Leaving my bets as they are with Mordaunt a deent winner, Liz breaking even and Rishi a loss.
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Big drift on the Mordaunt price, somebody thinks they know something
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I will rephrase that, the price is collapsing not drifting
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Less daunt by the look of it. I don't suppose that comes as a surprise.
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Rumours say that Liz Truss has beaten Penny Mordaunt to the final round.
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Mordaunt out from 6 to 50 in about 15 minutes.
If this was a football or cricket match there would be investigations. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pathetic from BF - they should've suspended the mrkt at 3pm when voting ended.
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There's a video clip of Truss celebrating with her team. Apparently.
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Mordaunt backers in mourning.
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pray for politicspunter
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1.7 Penny backers got their just desserts, was a short price for top 2 let alone outright.
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boris to truss
frying pan to fire  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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----you-have-to-laugh--- • July 20, 2022 1:11 PM BST
Tories still Fav to gain most seats at next election... 1.85 back 1.90 lay Labour 2.06 / 2.18 I hope betfair have a next prime minister Market ready for 6th September. Could Truss survive 2 years? on the prediction thread i suggested the possibility of her being kaboomed early. she has hitched herself to the erg so looks like she could end up in a trade war with the eu just when energy prices are going to go up a lot yet again. she is fairly obviously completely useless. i wouldnt be surprised if the erg and maybe even the wider tory party started agitating against her within a year. who knows if she will last until the next general election but i wouldnt be at all surprised if she didnt. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if truss has any sense she will hide in a fridge until voting is over.
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I just cant see boris going now
They have shown no regard for rules or law anyway having ended up with these two terrible options i can only think it has been deliberate and any of the other candidates that offered a new start have been strategically discredited Fully expect a three way leadership battle | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Well done to all Trussy backers theres a place in heavan for you
Praise the lord for the ridiculous sh!t show, he died so we may witness the show | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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His final “my mission is accomplished... for now” is a weird one
Truss is just the puppet within in the puppet camp run by puppet Boris who himself amswers to the higher puppet who answers to the main man, the wizard of oz | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Snap markzzz
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Always copy the long quoted ones... always
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Excellent event, loads of volatility. Disappointing that Betfair didn't have anything like the range of markets that other places had, particularly on the number of votes for each candidate in ballots.
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