Next Prime Minister market

UK - Next Prime Minister -- Prime Minister after Boris Johnson

82 Runners            £821,088 Matched

				114.3%		95.2%
£350	Dominic Raab	5.6	5.7	5.8		6	6.2	6.4	£48,184
		£59	£10	£89		£5	£52	£27
-£13	Rishi Sunak.	5.4	5.5	5.6		5.7	5.9	6	£201,046
		£394	£25	£179		£10	£346	£13
-£13	Penny Mordaunt	9.2	9.4	10		10.5	12	12.5	£36,842
		£2	£11	£100		£4	£3	£5
-£13	Sajid Javid	9.2	9.6	10		11.5	12	13	£23,151
		£64	£5	£95		£1	£441	£2
-£13	Jeremy Hunt	12	13	13.5		14.5	15	16	£47,238
		£43	£52	£75		£8	£13	£2
-£13	Ben Wallace	10.5	11	11.5		13.5	14	14.5	£24,536
		£48	£49	£125		£5	£22	£7
-£13	Nadhim Zahawi	16	17	17.5		20	21	22	£17,903
		£78	£59	£5		£9	£2	£9
-£13	Liz Truss	13	13.5	15		15.5	16	16.5	£54,603
		£54	£15	£64		£8	£5	£34
-£13	Tom Tugendhat	22	23	24		28	30	32	£25,698
		£30	£4	£42		£10	£6	£2
-£13	Steve Baker	14.5	15	16		18	18.5	24	£6,461
		£7	£14	£63		£8	£30	£9
-£13	Theresa May	34	36	40		65	80	95	£3,371
		£13	£15	£26		£10	£24	£11
-£13	Michael Gove	38	42	44		130	140	290	£27,781
		£3	£24	£3		£6	£3	£3
-£13	Priti Patel	48	50	55		75	90	150	£11,181
		£20	£45	£12		£3	£1	£22
-£13	Keir Starmer	130	140	150		420	430	440	£135,948
		£2	£14	£4		£1	£7	£3
-£13	Suella Braverman	48	50	70		220	240	250	£1,755
		£3	£7	£1		£2	£1	£7
-£13	David Davis	110	120	130		340	350	400	£1,106
		£1	£3	£16		£1	£8	£6
-£13	Tobia Ellwood	140	150	170		400	-	-	£2,721
		£4	£1	£2		£2
-£13	Jacob Rees-Mogg	110	140	180		300	390	470	£5,471
		£9	£2	£5		£1	£1	£3
-£13	James Cleverly	120	180	190		320	330	340	£2,202
		£11	£3	£11		£1	£1	£3
-£13	Kemi Badenoch	120	180	190		210	220	340	£2,056
		£11	£3	£11		£2	£7	£3
-£13	Andrea Leadsom	120	130	200		400	430	610	£1,412
		£1	£10	£23		£1	£8	£4
-£13	Steve Barclay	140	220	250		750	890	1000	£2,278
		£5	£9	£2		£8	£9	£3
-£13	Rory Stewart	200	280	300		620	670	990	£1,429
		£11	£1	£6		£4	£2	£2
-£13	Johnny Mercer	260	300	310		450	480	490	£964
		£1	£2	£10		£1	£1	£5
-£13	Mark Harper	150	160	170		320	370	380	£3,168
		£2	£19	£1		£2	£3	£2
-£13	Anne Marie Trevelyan	300	350	360		450	460	470	£580
		£3	£2	£8		£11	£1	£1
-£13	Matthew Hancock	440	460	470		750	800	1000	£4,051
		£3	£1	£6		£1	£2	£10
-£13	Wes Streeting	300	350	480		910	-	-	£2,388
		£1	£11	£8		£10
-£13	Ruth Davidson	360	380	400		1000	-	-	£1,215
		£4	£8	£3		£2
-£13	Esther McVey	500	600	610		1000	-	-	£485
		£1	£3	£5		£2
-£13	Simon Clarke	500	570	1000		-	-	-	£133
		£1	£5	£3
-£13	Oliver Dowden	440	600	610		1000	-	-	£634
		£3	£2	£5		£1
-£13	Alok Sharma	620	650	660		-	-	-	£495
		£1	£1	£5
-£13	Kit Malthouse	580	670	730		-	-	-	£286
		£3	£4	£5
-£13	Bim Afolami	680	760	1000		-	-	-	£410
		£2	£4	£1
-£13	Jeremy Corbyn	820	900	1000		-	-	-	£68,797
		£2	£1	£6
-£13	Jo Swinson	90	100	1000		-	-	-	£4,550
		£2	£8	£22
-£13	Rebecca Long-Bailey	220	360	1000		-	-	-	£2,193
		£6	£4	£17
-£13	Nigel Farage	710	900	1000		-	-	-	£12,244
		£4	£1	£2
-£13	Amber Rudd	120	300	1000		-	-	-	£324
		£2	£1	£18
-£13	Dominic Grieve	400	410	1000		-	-	-	£190
		£4	£1	£23
-£13	Gavin Williamson	620	650	1000		-	-	-	£228
		£2	£1	£22
-£13	Geoffrey Cox	610	620	1000		-	-	-	£163
		£4	£3	£1
-£13	Yvette Cooper	340	350	1000		-	-	-	£1,802
		£2	£2	£5
-£13	Tom Watson	100	180	1000		-	-	-	£139
		£12	£2	£27
-£13	John McDonnell	90	120	1000		-	-	-	£363
		£2	£1	£22
-£13	Jess Phillips	150	450	1000		-	-	-	£489
		£3	£1	£21
-£13	Emily Thornberry	340	400	1000		-	-	-	£459
		£3	£1	£17
-£13	Ken Clarke	90	500	1000		-	-	-	£5,996
		£2	£3	£18
-£13	Margaret Beckett	50	400	1000		-	-	-	£3,345
		£20	£3	£20
-£13	Caroline Lucas	150	260	1000		-	-	-	£237
		£5	£2	£17
-£13	Ian Blackford	4	200	1000		-	-	-	£20
		£4	£5	£22
-£13	Liz Saville-Roberts	4	200	1000		-	-	-	£29
		£4	£6	£20
-£13	Sylvia Hermon	4	95	1000		-	-	-	£113
		£4	£13	£21
-£13	Harriet Harman	50	420	1000		-	-	-	£921
		£1	£3	£20
-£13	John Bercow	300	500	1000		-	-	-	£5,386
		£1	£3	£14
-£13	David Miliband	700	900	1000		-	-	-	£1,338
		£3	£1	£7
-£13	Philip Hammond	310	320	1000		-	-	-	£219
		£1	£5	£3
-£13	Hilary Benn	4	320	1000		-	-	-	£316
		£4	£7	£19
-£13	Lisa Nandy	250	300	1000		-	-	-	£2,396
		£1	£1	£1
-£13	Sadiq Khan	630	720	1000		-	-	-	£407
		£2	£2	£15
-£13	Angela Rayner	330	350	1000		-	-	-	£1,777
		£9	£3	£2
-£13	Damian Hinds	850	900	1000		-	-	-	£319
		£4	£5	£2
-£13	Andrea Jenkyns	4	10	1000		-	-	-	£26
		£4	£2	£20
-£13	David Cameron	480	600	1000		-	-	-	£73
		£1	£2	£22
-£13	Helen Whately	770	900	1000		-	-	-	£186
		£2	£2	£2
-£13	Ed Davey	710	900	1000		-	-	-	£296
		£2	£12	£2
-£13	Layla Moran	4	40	1000		-	-	-	£35
		£4	£41	£21
-£13	Daisy Cooper	40	50	1000		-	-	-	£16
		£30	£4	£19
-£13	Christine Jardine	55	60	1000		-	-	-	£22
		£3	£6	£22
-£13	Wera Hobhouse	65	70	1000		-	-	-	£8
		£3	£5	£18
-£13	Alistair Carmichael	80	90	1000		-	-	-	£19
		£3	£3	£21
-£13	Rosena Allin-Khan	120	800	1000		-	-	-	£223
		£1	£1	£19
-£13	Robert Jenrick	600	720	1000		-	-	-	£183
		£10	£1	£2
-£13	Andrew Burnham	400	420	1000		-	-	-	£4,343
		£1	£7	£2
-£13	Simon Jordan	100	810	1000		-	-	-	£47
		£2	£2	£21
-£13	Nadine Dorries	870	900	1000		-	-	-	£222
		£1	£4	£1
-£13	Aaron Bell	260	500	1000		-	-	-	£12
		£1	£3	£26
-£13	William Wragg	12	540	1000		-	-	-	£10
		£9	£2	£26
-£13	Bernard Jenkin	36	500	1000		-	-	-	£52
		£6	£16	£20
-£13	Rachel Reeves	320	330	1000		-	-	-	£1,346
		£1	£4	£4
-£13	Chris Bryant	4	110	1000		-	-	-	£25
		£4	£2	£25

... As chosen by a conservative party leadership contest...

anyone else got any bets on this market ?

or is it just after timers on politics forum?

"If I were you I would lay it off at 8s now, in order to guarantee a return if winning/no loss if losing."

Thanks, but no thanks

the original conjecture on which the bet was placed still stands so I'm just gonna let the bet stand

Ben Wallace been heavily backed into favourite on Betfair.

YouGov
@YouGov
·
1h
Conservative members poll: Ben Wallace beats all comers for next leader by wide margins

Wallace v Sunak: 51% v 30%
Wallace v Truss: 48% v 29%
Wallace v Mordaunt: 48% v 26%
Wallace v Hunt: 58% v 22%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/07/ben-wallace-clear-favourite-next-conservative-lead

Ben Wallace, a bloke who nobody had heard of until Putin invaded, propped up the worst Prime Minister in history, showing zero moral compass himself, and a total bore. Yes, he would great.

Hes standing down as party leader not the pm post

Gawd knows what that means

I've mentioned him a couple of times recently, pp. He has ERG support and appears to be a decent sort.I hope he will stand.

Amazing that half wits think he's some sort of trump
with a coup in his back pocket.

sold raab at 7.31 as bj said he was hanging on... so now +158 raab, +217 truss, 0 others

I cannot have Mr Sunak, principle or no - as the PM of the country just because he thought a Green Card is a prudent, common strategy for a British subject. I cannot have Mr Sunak as PM as I believe he does not fully understand the increasing costs of living presently affecting the majority of the households and people of this country. 

He was a good chancellor - good with numbers - but a bit heartless, in my opinion. I can accept him as a chancellor again, not PM.

Are they?

I suppose you would have to look at categories of contenders for permanent Prime Minister and one of those categories is cabinet members (at least until the final days), some who have remained "loyal" to Boris. That brings into play...

Ben Wallace-big chance, highly thought of by Conservative Party members.
Liz Truss- Not for me but decent chance.
Priti Patel- No possible chance.
Nadhim Zahawi- Hokey cokey candidate who ruined any chance he had in the final days.
Michael Gove- No possible chance.
Dominic Raab- No possible chance.
Rishi Sunak- You just wonder if that green card and tax status of his wife has scuppered his chance.
Sajid Javid- I like him a lot but he didn't get the support in a previous contest.
Stephen Barclay- Well thought of, can't be ruled out.
Brandon Lewis- I don't trust him at all.
Grant Shapps- Not for me but a big price.
Jacob Rees-Mogg- No possible chance.
Suella Braverman-No possible chance.
Therese Coffey- No possible chance.
Kwasi Karteng- No possible chance.

Then you come to non cabinet members who don't have the Boris link...

Penny Mordaunt- Big chance, highly thought of.
Jeremy Hunt- Solid, family man, traditional Conservative.
Tom Tugendhat- Chance but possibly a bit short on experience at a high level.
Steve Baker- Solid core support within ERG Westminster party and with members.
Graham Brady- Outsider but trustworthy and respected.

Hard to see any other hats apart form these being tossed into the ring.

Robert Largan talking up Tommy Tugg on Sky News

Escapee

splashed out a tenner on Truss @ 14

she is returning urgently from G20 and expected to make an announcement 'shortly'

Couldn't get out of the country quick enough when it was all kicking off, hotfooting it back to throw her hat in the ring now - a despicable woman

will dutch 2 biggest lunatics , braverman and baker

It's like getting the public to pick eurovision
entries and they pick x factor nobodies who can't sing.