.
@FiveThirtyEight
Average:

#PASen:
Fetterman (D) 49.0% (+10.7)
Oz (R) 38.3%
.
#AZSen:
Kelly (D-inc) 51.1% (+10.2)
Masters (R) 40.9%
.
#OHSen:
Ryan (D) 45.8% (+4.5)
Vance (R) 41.3

Ryan the Democrat is a huge price on here to win Ohio. His Republican opponent is probably the weakest Senate candidate the GOP have put up anywhere.

Beasley in North Carolina was behind but has now led in three of the last four polls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQEQ2-vzwGo
.
North Carolina moved from Likely Republican to toss up with Decision Desk.

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
3h
A 5 point shift towards Beasley in 2 months

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
· 3h
North Carolina Senate:

Ted Budd (R) 42%
Cheri Beasley (D) 42%
Shannon Bray (L) 2%
Matthew Hoh (G) 1%

@cygnal/@JohnLockeNC, 615 LV, 8/13-15
https://johnlocke.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/19971-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

I got £9 at 3.3 on #North Carolina, market is exceedingly thin on Betfair, plus I think it likely a losing bet

USA - Senate Races 2022 -- North Carolina

2 Runners            £277 Matched

				106.2%		88.5%
-£9.05	Republican	1.2	1.21	1.44		1.46	1.56	1.64	£194
		£419	£30	£2		£15	£58	£100
£20.82	Democrat	2.5	2.52	2.72		5	7	7.2	£83
		£154	£100	£6		£10	£20	£10

Wisconsin Senate:

Mandela Barnes (D) 50% (+4)
Ron Johnson (R-inc) 46%

.
@foxnewspoll

Arizona Senate:

Mark Kelly (D-inc) 50% (+8)
Blake Masters (R) 42%

.
@foxnewspoll
, 1,012 RV, 8/12-16
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/AZ-topline_Sen-Gov-General_conducted-August-12-16_released-Aug-18-2022.pdf
.

He got the Liz Cheney humungous defeat exactly right which had the largest turnout ever
I fully expect 60/70 seat pick up in the house
4/5 in the senate

Far-right wins in blue states threaten GOP hopes in November

HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — Republicans have found success in Democratic strongholds like Maryland and Massachusetts when they have fielded moderate candidates who could appeal to voters in both parties. With Democrats facing headwinds this year, Republicans had hoped that strategy could pay off yet again.

But Republican voters have nominated loyalists of former President Donald Trump in several Democratic states, including Maryland and Connecticut, making the GOP’s odds of winning those general election races even longer. Massachusetts will face its own test next month as GOP voters decide between a Trump-backed conservative and a more moderate Republican for the party’s gubernatorial nominee.

“It can’t continue,” said former Connecticut U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, a moderate Republican and Trump critic, referring to the GOP choosing pro-Trump candidates. “One of the things that will happen is that a lot of the Trump candidates who won the primary will lose the general election. And there are a lot of unhappy Republicans who hold office now who believe that the Senate now is in jeopardy of staying Democratic.”

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-presidential-connecticut-donald-trump-ea21ee30c7d436f44b08c22f88f4b878

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
1h
.
@FiveThirtyEight
Average:

#GASen:
Warnock (D-inc) 46.2% (+1.8)
Walker (R) 44.4%
.
#NVSen
Cortez Masto (D-inc) 44.5% (+1.4)
Laxalt (R) 43.1%
.
#OHSen:
Ryan (D) 43.9% (+1.2)
Vance (R) 42.7%
.
#NCSen:
Beasley (D) 44.0% (+0.1)
Budd (R) 43.9%

Senate GOP’s primary super PAC is cancelling nearly $10M in Arizona and Alaska ad buys.

The shift comes as Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) leads in nearly every public poll, but serves as a vote of confidence in Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

Looks like the Reps are taking hits with roe vs wade,
I saw some data on reddit showing a massive spike in female voter registrations in June & July

Democrat defeats Sarah Palin in Alaska. Another kick in the bollocks for Trump and his cult followers.

Republicans notably silent, split as Trump probe deepens

WASHINGTON (AP) — At first, Republicans were highly critical of the FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, but as new details emerge about the more than 100 classified documents the former president haphazardly stashed at his private club Republicans have grown notably silent.

The deepening investigation into Trump’s handling of sensitive government information has disclosed damaging and unsettling new details. With every court filing there is new information about the cache of documents the former president took with him from the White House and the potential national security concerns. While the unprecedented search has galvanized many Republicans to Trump’s defense, others in the party are unwilling to speak up, often wary of crossing him.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell declined to respond Wednesday when asked about the latest developments in the Justice Department’s probe.

“I don’t have any observations about that,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky.

The silence speaks volumes for a party whose president won the White House after rousing voters in rally chants of “Lock Her Up!” Trump pilloried Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton for using a personal email account and server during her time as Secretary of State. She quickly complied with investigators and was not charged.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-presidential-elections-mar-a-lago-election-2020-congress-cfcdf3bccd5bd8c008248b19ab299044

Odd result.

But she's americas Liz Truss...

In the Florida Senate race, I initially expected the Republican to win comfortably. However, over the last few weeks, polling has suggested it could be a closer race than I thought.

Apparently Trump going back to hold another rally in Ohio as his endorsed big lie conspiracy theory candidate Vance isn't closing the gap.

Yes.