https://twitter.com/HeathMayo/status/1571485447242633222
.

The abortion issue is a complete red herring

Baby killers always vote blue anyway & there are still plenty of blue sh1tholes willing to commit infanticide

The problem with Timber is that you never know if his posts are photoshopped

With the Roe SCOTUS decision likely being a prime driver in new female voter registrations, I wonder if pollsters have been updating their weighting models to reflect this for the November elections. I presume the weighting for midterm polls are different from general polls anyway since it’s generally the more politically motivated who participate in them, but this year they may well be a slightly different weighting needed to reflect an increase in women and especially younger women who may well vote in larger numbers than is normal.

The special elections since the Roe decision on 24 June 2022, have been a bell weather warning for the GOP - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/ - with the Dems doing better than expected in all 4, either by losing by less than expected or actually winning in New York’s 12th.

New York’s 12th is quite interesting. At the moment on the “lean index” it’s an R+4, but it’s a true swing district switching between GOP and DEMS as the wind blows. Of the last 4 special it was the most polled with 4 polling companies producing polls for the district. The GOP leaning - Triton Polling & Research – had two polls giving the GOP initially a +14 (Pre-DOB) and a +10 (post-DOB). All 3 Democrat leaning pollsters were Post-Dob and gave the GOP a +3%, +3%, and +8%.
The actual result was a democratic win by +2%.
So did the polling companies have the wrong weightings, and if they did, will be see a swing of up to 5% over the polling numbers towards the Dems in some seats this November?

Btw, in that Georgia Senate election, Walker should be helped by the Kemp vote. However, he won't be if it goes to a fairly likely run off.

My personal favourite is a possible 2%-3% error from where GOP women who in public say they oppose abortion when within earshot of their Husbands, but want their “little princesses” to have the same choice they had if they had an unwanted pregnancy. The following is a post from a NYT comment section which may well reflect the opinion of some GOP voting women. Not all of course, but you don’t need all of them to vote Dem in the seclusion of a voting booth to turn enough close races for it to make a difference.

“As a married woman (25 years and counting) and mother of three, I would personally not have an abortion. However, I, like many women, feel very strongly that the option needs to be there for our daughters and granddaughters, sisters, cousins, nieces and friends. Most women know another woman who was a victim of violence, and without the right to abortion those victims of violence would become pawns of men, forced to endure unwanted pregnancies.”

My personal favourite is a possible 2%-3% error are GOP women who in public say they oppose abortion when within earshot of their Husbands or answering a telephone poll,  but want their “little princesses” to have the same choice they had if they had an unwanted pregnancy. The following is a post from a NYT comment section which may well reflect the opinion of some GOP voting women. Not all of course, but you don’t need all of them to vote Dem in the seclusion of a voting booth to turn enough close races for it to make a difference.

“As a married woman (25 years and counting) and mother of three, I would personally not have an abortion. However, I, like many women, feel very strongly that the option needs to be there for our daughters and granddaughters, sisters, cousins, nieces and friends. Most women know another woman who was a victim of violence, and without the right to abortion those victims of violence would become pawns of men, forced to endure unwanted pregnancies.”

Tom Bonier
@tbonier
·
5h
In Georgia, 37% of the mail ballot requests have come from Black voters, and 60% from women. In 2020, 30% of mail ballots were cast by Black voters, 56% by women.

.



https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-gop-winning-economy-immigration-democrats-are-ahead-abortion-heal-rcna48297

Have to worry the demonrats are going to do something horrific to stop the tsunami

Looks like the US is going to have a THIRD quarter of negative GDP in a row
It's a DEPRESSION
Stock market is now officially lower than when Biden took over

What a complete disaster

There is a Republican candidate for office in the Midterm elections who is non Trump and supports abortion. He is a literally massive value price if you care to track him down timber.

DEPRESSION

You can have 3s Oz with me timber for any sum you wish

For clarity, Democrat candidates are pulling away from the Trump MAGA opposition in recent polls.

BATTLE FOR U.S. SENATE SEAT
In the race for U.S. Senate, the BW Ohio Pulse Poll has Ryan with a 3-point edge over Republican nominee J.D. Vance (48 to 45%), with 7% still undecided. Ryan holds larger leads among Independents, who favor the Democrat by 7 points, and women, who support Ryan by a 13-point margin.   

"The race to replace retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman continues to poll surprisingly close considering the state's tilt to the right in recent years," said Dr. Thomas Sutton, who heads up BW's Community Research Institute. "The candidates are in a statistical tie with leaners added in."

"Still, Ryan's candidacy remains strong in the face of an influx of GOP PAC money to buy television advertising for Vance and support from former President Donald Trump, who most recently staged a rally with Vance on Ryan's home turf of Youngstown," Sutton noted. "With two-and-a-half weeks until early voting begins in Ohio on October 12, a lot is riding on the final weeks of the campaign and how the undecideds break."

The markets are so wrong it's just free money all over the show
Senate majority for the R's at 2.9 is the bet of the century

Even Washington state is in play & ALL D+10s/D+15s $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I still fancy 54/55 senate seats & maybe 250 house seats

Stickywickets • May 16, 2022 12:54 PM BST

Punter must be the WORST punter ever
Absolutely clueless

100 seats are about to be lost by the demonrats

Look forward to see how your prediction turns out (for the demonrats, funnily enough the same name timber calls them)

Timber • September 23, 2022 10:51 AM BST
Even Washington state is in play & ALL D+10s/D+15s $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I still fancy 54/55 senate seats & maybe 250 house seats

Looking forward to see how these predictions of yours do.

YOU can't handle the truth