USA 2022 House, Senate and Governor elections

Ball park stuff suggests that normally the party that is in charge of the White House tends to get a good going over by the electorate in the Midterms so it's advantage Republicans right away. The GOP are currently huge favourites to win both the House of Representatives and the Senate but with regard to the Senate, you need to check the rules very carefully as there are clear rules differences if you shop around.

Just to say that it is imperative you check the rules for these markets, especially the Senate markets. There seems to be a wide interpretation in who is a Democrat, who is an Independent and particularly how a "tie" is seats is settled.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21400659/bk-strategies-georgia-gop-gubernatorial-primary-memo-3-9.pdf
.

Trump endorsed candidate in real trouble in Georgia of all places.

1.47 Kemp is admittedly a short price (much shorter than I normally bet) but in the context of this market, that price looks huge currently.

President Trump remains extremely popular among Republican Primary voters with an
81 percent favorable rating. However, voters identify other attributes as more important
to their choice for Governor than the President’s support. When given a menu of options
and asked to choose the attribute they considered most important in deciding their vote,
42 percent of respondents chose “honesty and integrity” and 27 percent chose “being
the best candidate to defeat Stacey Abrams,” while only 7 percent chose being
endorsed by President Trump.

just looked at betfair markets for usa 2022 elections.

minimal number of markets with thin volume.

https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/us/2022-house-and-senate-elections
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In Georgia, a Campaign Fueled by Trump’s Revenge Sputters

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/26/us/georgia-governor-trump-perdue-kemp.html
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there are 3 Betfair markets on 2022 HoR election, this is the only one with any action.

Got any thoughts on it?

USA - House of Representatives Election 2022 -- House Of Representatives Majority                    £67,081 Matched

Republican Majority	1.17	1.18	1.19		1.2	1.21	1.22	£60,630
	£62	£1,319	£63		£28	£37	£610
Democrat Majority	5.8	5.9	6.2		6.8	7.2	7.6	£6,353
	£27	£7	£44		£228	£10	£35
No Majority	30	36	50		170	180	350	£97
	£25	£1	£120		£1	£7	£3

ALABAMA
Would Donald Trump’s endorsement of a candidate in Alabama make you more or less likely to support that candidate?

More likely 39%
Makes no difference 42%
Less likely 14%

@cygnal
/
@ALDailyNews
~ 600 likely Republican Primary voters ~ 3/16-3/17

https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/us/2022-house-and-senate-elections
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Twenty markets on this link, so far.

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1510645843036147718
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Georgia Governor election update.

Republicans are overwhelming favourites to win the Senate (make sure of the rules of individual bookies/exchanges!) but it could be closer than the odds suggest. I have it currently as  45-44 Republicans with these 11 to be decided...

Florida-Republican strong favourite.
Wisconsin- Republican clear favourite but could be competitive
North Carolina- Republican clear favourite but could become competitive
Ohio- Republican clear favourite but could become competitive
Arizona- Lean Democrat
New Hampshire-Lean Democrat
Pennsylvania-Toss up
Nevada-Toss up
Georgia-Toss up
Colorado- Democrat strong favourite
Illinois- Democrat strong favourite


Still an awful lot to play for.

Trumps strategy is to wait until one candidate has a clear lead, then endorse them, later claiming it was his endorsement that got them over the line

Hmm, Oz has Trumps endorsement, he leads in all recent independent opinion polls and is generally regarded as a 1.3 shot. Not sure what's going on, but someone has just stuck up a couple of hundred at 1.6

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198695927
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Apparently, someone has published pictures of Kathy Barnette marching with the Proud Boys towards the Capitol on January 6th. No pictures so far of her actually inside the building. In crazy Trump land, hard to know if these are helpful or a hindrance

There were hundreds of thousands at the Capitol, less than 1000 entered and only a few were violent

NEW:
@NBCNews
has verified these images of Barnette marching toward the Capitol on Jan 6 alongside member of the Proud Boys who were later arrested and indicted for breaking into the building and attacking officers.

https://twitter.com/DashaBurns/status/1526184172208914432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526184172208914432%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpredictitt_i%3D7129t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.predictit.org2Fmarkets2Fdetail2F71292FWho-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nominationt_e%3DPredictIt207C20Who20will20win20the20202220Pennsylvania20Republican20Senate20nomination3Ft_d%3D202220Midterm20Elections207C20Who20will20win20the20Pennsylvania20Republican20Senate20nomination3Ft_t%3DPredictIt207C20Who20will20win20the20202220Pennsylvania20Republican20Senate20nomination3Fs_o%3Ddefaultversion%3D9db7f31f906666f4d56c3f4488ea0e6c
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Apparently she is now claiming that she voted for Trump in Pennsylvania in 2016 but there is no record of it.