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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 22:51

Define the rules of the market more clearly in advance for one.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 22:52

How can you define a market such as this when Trump is involved?

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 22:53

How much did I get on at 25/1

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 22:53

Look, if it was normal people, everything would be fine. He is not and it isn't.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 22:55

You are right this should have been included in the rules.

I find it obvious, but thousands will not.

Many will be opposed to it.

Another own goal from betfair,
If new punters are lost.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:00

Donny, surely there is only so many scenarios they can cover? Anything involving Trump is often beyond comprehension.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:04

I think the threat of legal action was a known unknown, and could have had a mention.

I know they try hard to get it right, and sometimes things change.

But this isn't really earth shattering
surprising from trump.

Thing is, if they don't pay out on
threat of frivolous lawsuits then how
long to they wait?

Could be Dec, or even Jan as he can threaten to sue and not act upon his threats..

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:08

Well ok, I am happy to wait. I honestly don't envy the position they are in and currently everything is far from clear. As they say, when there is clarity, they will settle.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:11

Btw, a similar discussion is currently going on in CNN, asking the guys there when they can declare a winner? Recounts and legal stuff chucked in for good measure.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:13

Nov 6, 2020 -- 10:52PM, politicspunter wrote:

How can you define a market such as this when Trump is involved?

I get you playing Devil's advocate and it's not straightforward, but it shouldn't matter who is involved, the principles should have been the same.

Here are the official rules:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.

* so we need a defined source for where the projected result will be obtained from. Unless you are going to settle on objective results like who is sworn in or who is the official winner, you need this defined, even if you say it's Betfair's own internal analysts.
* greater clarity regarding legal disputes, which are NOT mentioned in the rules.

To me, this looks like they are amending, or supplementing, their weak rules on the fly. There is no reference to legal challenges and recounts, although I think the latter would be covered as there would be no projection in this instance. Unless you are relying on the projections being delayed due to subsequent legal challenges, which is absolutely not guaranteed - indeed, many States have been called.

Indeed, legal challenges look to be ignored for settlement purposes according to this rule:

Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

Therefore, according to these rules, if Biden wins PA and the networks call it - we have to assume we're using these, as the projection they are using is not defined - then bets should be settled, regardless of subsequent legal efforts.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:22

I take that as faithless electors or technical stuff does not over ride the fair allocation of electors.

You can argue that legal action is similar

But I think it is not.

Taking legal action to force betfair to settle would likely take longer given our courts are over burdened at the mo...

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:24

Ok, what happens if the networks call PA but Trump appeals. Are you saying Betfair should just pay out irrespective of the result of any appeal/ court action?

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:24

as an aside, they have settled numerous state markets before waiting to see if there are any "legal challenges" and the rules in those markets don't say anything about "subsequent events" being ignored.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:24

That was to Sergeant

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:25

^^ yes because of the "subsequent event" clause.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:25

Including a rule for legal challenges
would let us know what the score was
with far more certainty

But still wouldn't cope with threat
of legal, and it not happening

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:25

Nov 6, 2020 -- 11:24PM, politicspunter wrote:

Ok, what happens if the networks call PA but Trump appeals. Are you saying Betfair should just pay out irrespective of the result of any appeal/ court action?

This is my point mate. Should they on a common sense basis? No. Should they according to the rules? Yes.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:25

^that was to you

^^^ was not to you

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:31

Rules are clearly unclear!!

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:37

I deal with rule disputes fairly often at work and interact with IBAS on a fairly regular basis. If the networks declare Biden the winner and Betfair, for whatever reason, ends up paying on Trump as the winner - as unlikely as it is - then this will get very, very messy indeed. You would have a very strong case at IBAS if you have backed Biden in this scenario.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:37

^^I don't think they are if you realise that they were written to pay out quickly. Projected wins come in, 270+ is hit, they pay out.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:39

If the IBAS guy got the £1m bet to adjudicate he would have an insta-stroke.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:39

That's how it reads to me dave.

But....

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 23:40

You wonder what sort of punter had the 5 million dollar bet on Trump?

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:41

Nov 6, 2020 -- 11:37PM, dave1357 wrote:

^^I don't think they are if you realise that they were written to pay out quickly. Projected wins come in, 270+ is hit, they pay out.

That was the plan, but their statement has undermined that, unnecessarily. They should have just stuck to the rules in the statement and doubled down on paying out on the winner as projected by media outlets. They've made a right pig's ear of it now as they've brought legal challenges into it, directly contradicting their own rules which for their faults were known to all well in advance of the election.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:42

A one with close links to trump insiders
transferring 5 million...

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 23:44

^^Exactly, in fact the person who wrote that statement should be sacked, just like the clown who told CS the nonsense about the Theresa May market last year.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:46

Nov 6, 2020 -- 11:44PM, dave1357 wrote:

^^Exactly, in fact the person who wrote that statement should be sacked, just like the clown who told CS the nonsense about the Theresa May market last year.

What happened with that one?

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 23:50

They made correct, imo, settlement on
May market, but it was far from
clear from their rules.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 23:50

Imagine having a market worth half a billion quid and having to do a statement back tracking on your own flawed rules. Somebody must be sweating.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 00:00

They must be hoping any 1.01 about Biden is taken after any announcement of victory by the networks, that's basically the market settling itself isn't it? Should make it easy for them to settle it then.

By:

thegiggilo When: 07 Nov 20 00:24

https://twitter.com/Red_SteK/status/1324833228235153417

By:

Chemosabe When: 07 Nov 20 00:47

Some of you don't seem to understand that it isn't the TV networks who get to decide the "projected Electoral College votes" - it is the individual States. Every state has to certify its election results, and put forward its named College Electors (which will differ depending on whether Biden or Trump wins), and they can't do that whilst votes are being recounted, or if the result is being challenged in the courts. If Betfair tries to settle this market on some TV network's guess on who the College Electors will be the official nominated Electors are different, then Betfair could end up having to pay out to both candidates.

By:

dave1357 When: 07 Nov 20 07:48

I dispute that that is the case. Anyway, Betfair, once again, like the T May tory leader market, have issued a statement that contradicts their market rules, while the market is still active, which once more is a disgrace.

By:

FXDUX When: 07 Nov 20 07:54

Betfair's statement is fully compliant with its rules, and all of you like politicspunter and dave who have spent the last days confidently telling people what Betfair's rules mean are utterly unqualified to interpret legal provisions with any competence.

By:

Timber When: 07 Nov 20 07:56

I think they will be prudent, especially with all the demorat shenanigans

By:

Timber When: 07 Nov 20 07:57

1.07 when he's 1/10000 shot based on current polling five speaks volumes

By:

Timber When: 07 Nov 20 07:58

Figures

By:

Facts When: 07 Nov 20 08:09

Someone close to Trump, needs to tell him he lost the election and it's time to pack up his things and just leave the White House. There's a good boy.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 08:39

Nov 7, 2020 -- 12:47AM, Chemosabe wrote:

Some of you don't seem to understand that it isn't the TV networks who get to decide the "projected Electoral College votes" - it is the individual States. Every state has to certify its election results, and put forward its named College Electors (which will differ depending on whether Biden or Trump wins), and they can't do that whilst votes are being recounted, or if the result is being challenged in the courts. If Betfair tries to settle this market on some TV network's guess on who the College Electors will be the official nominated Electors are different, then Betfair could end up having to pay out to both candidates.

This is patently false and it should have been obvious it was false before you posted it. You're talking about an official result which isn't usually in until days later, the State don't go and project a winner. Why would they do that? It's not only impartial but not their job, they just count the votes.

Furthermore, it directly contradicts the statement by Betfair:

"a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016."