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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 18:00

Smarkets have, paid out.

By:

Chemosabe When: 07 Nov 20 18:32

Nov 7, 2020 -- 5:47PM, dave1357 wrote:

^^ chemosabe - you will note that betfair contradict the market rules - I seem to remember that you were livid about that in the T May farce.

The problem is Betfair doesn't make the rules for political markets coherent or watertight. I mean, they have called this market "Next President" but it's a misnomer, because the rules are written so that they could theoretically pay out on a runner who never becomes President, which is crazy.

In this instance, the issue is with the precise meaning of "projected Electoral College votes". Projected by whom? Since they don't say, many will assume the media, who have now called it for Biden. However, this is only a pre-projection, and the mostly Dem-leaning media are actually being irresponsible in pushing this.

By:

dave1357 When: 07 Nov 20 18:37

oddschecker, owned by flutter (betfair) have taken down all next prez markets

By:

Richie_Burnett When: 07 Nov 20 18:41

Smarkets have paid out.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 18:41

Boris Johnson saying well done to Biden and Betfair trying to claim there's some confusion still. How embarrassing.

By:

dave1357 When: 07 Nov 20 18:44

All because they issued that stupid statement yesterday - they just needed to say that counts were ongoing and would settle markets according to their rules as soon as possible.

By:

Richie_Burnett When: 07 Nov 20 18:58

Nov 7, 2020 -- 6:00PM, politicspunter wrote:

Smarkets have, paid out.

Didn't see that

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 07 Nov 20 19:05

Paid out twice!!!!

By:

bingo bongo When: 07 Nov 20 19:10

So apart from Betfair staff loading up just before settlement what are we waiting for now???

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 19:33

Dunno, apparently every media outlet in the Western world and our PM believing Biden is the winner is not enough.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 07 Nov 20 19:50

Folk piling smarkets winnings
Into betair

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 19:52

Yep...

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.172461247

By:

Chemosabe When: 07 Nov 20 19:53

Nov 7, 2020 -- 7:33PM, Sergeant Cecil wrote:

Dunno, apparently every media outlet in the Western world and our PM believing Biden is the winner is not enough.

The (largely) anti-Trump media, including our own BBC, is trying to "make it a reality" by gaslighting everyone into thinking Biden has definitely won. It will make it harder for Trump's lawyers to get Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada audited, which is the objective. Watch the Dems fight like crazy to stop a full audit of the ballots in those States, and then ask yourselves why they would object if they won legitimately.

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 19:55

Audit away please. Meanwhile some of us can play up our winnings on betfair markets.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 20:00

Nov 7, 2020 -- 7:53PM, Chemosabe wrote:

Nov 7, 2020 -- 8:33PM, Sergeant Cecil wrote:Dunno, apparently every media outlet in the Western world and our PM believing Biden is the winner is not enough.The (largely) anti-Trump media, including our own BBC, is trying to "make it a reality" by gaslighting everyone into thinking Biden has definitely won. It will make it harder for Trump's lawyers to get Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada audited, which is the objective. Watch the Dems fight like crazy to stop a full audit of the ballots in those States, and then ask yourselves why they would object if they won legitimately.

I'm sure Trump will definitely win after the recounts and legal action, so you've nothing to worry about. However, the winner on this market, as per the rules of the market, is Joe Biden.

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 20:01

Betfair, please keep all your P

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 20:03

Lol, Please keep all your markets open, it's money for nothing

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 20:03

As an aside, imagine saying it's the MEDIA trying to gaslight with no sense of irony. Good God.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 20:04

That whole post, in fact, is just wow. Deranged stuff.

By:

johnni When: 07 Nov 20 20:05

United states safe harbor law makes states decide the election if even one state does not accept the result and contests it bu 8th december (2020).

Congress majority by states will be 27 republican.
States are abliged by law to vote, republican for republican and dem for dem.

Donald Trump won.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 20:06

All the states have accepted it, but your argument has no relevance to the settlement of the market as per the rules.

By:

vaddegan When: 07 Nov 20 22:06

I've just noticed that i've been paid out on my Joe Biden win bet with william hill. this happened at around 21 30 today saturday 7 november
Maybe this will shame Betfair to follow suite!

By:

vaddegan When: 07 Nov 20 22:06

I've just noticed that i've been paid out on my Joe Biden win bet with william hill. this happened at around 21 30 today saturday 7 november
Maybe this will shame Betfair to follow suite!

By:

RioGrande When: 07 Nov 20 22:07

noice

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 22:08

Nov 7, 2020 -- 10:06PM, vaddegan wrote:

I've just noticed that i've been paid out on my Joe Biden win bet with william hill. this happened at around 21 30 today saturday 7 november

By:

ambush When: 07 Nov 20 22:12

i ve just got 5 euro matched on mark cuban @ 1000//1... longer its open the better

By:

Chemosabe When: 07 Nov 20 22:22

Nov 7, 2020 -- 10:06PM, vaddegan wrote:

I've just noticed that i've been paid out on my Joe Biden win bet with william hill. this happened at around 21 30 today saturday 7 november

By:

ambush When: 07 Nov 20 22:26

anyone else getting greening up bwets on the outsiders

By:

ambush When: 07 Nov 20 22:29

bets even

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 22:29

Yes, back Joe Biden and lay Trump.

By:

Chemosabe When: 07 Nov 20 22:29

My comment didn't load. If bookies took a lot of money on Trump, they will be happy to settle now and pay out on Biden. Betfair doesn't have that incentive, but they do have an incentive to avoid a slew of IBAS cases.

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 22:31

As far as I can make out, they are the only ones that haven't paid out (so far).

By:

politicspunter When: 07 Nov 20 22:32

So everyone can just keep betting Biden/laying Trump from their winnings elsewhere.

By:

dave1357 When: 07 Nov 20 22:33

I'd guess the bookies would have far more going to IBAS than betfair whose rules enable them to settle.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 07 Nov 20 22:34

Amazing stuff...

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 07 Nov 20 22:34

Backing a 1/10 shot after it
past line at 1/33...

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 22:43

Nov 7, 2020 -- 10:29PM, Chemosabe wrote:

My comment didn't load. If bookies took a lot of money on Trump, they will be happy to settle now and pay out on Biden. Betfair doesn't have that incentive, but they do have an incentive to avoid a slew of IBAS cases.

It is impossible for them to lose at IBAS if they settle now, because they are settling as per the rules and can clearly point the them and say that Biden IS the projected winner. In the highly unlikely event that Trump was subsequently settled as a winner, they would lose every case at IBAS. I deal with IBAS on a fairly regular basis in my job - the correct settlement as per Betfair's rules is Biden and anything else will cost them a fortune. Anyone backing Trump has no case as per these rules.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 22:45

Nov 7, 2020 -- 10:31PM, politicspunter wrote:

As far as I can make out, they are the only ones that haven't paid out

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 07 Nov 20 22:46

It's still open on the Purple but as above their rules are different, as they are settling on the actual next President, not the projected winner, as per their rules. No issue with that at all.

By:

peckerdunne When: 07 Nov 20 22:46

TAKING THE PISH NOW

And if you back Biden now, what chance its void