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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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By:

toonboy When: 06 Nov 20 12:47

Under what scenario can koala still win? Her market fired up again? Even if Biden dies he is still the winner of the ballot?

By:

ostend When: 06 Nov 20 17:07

Nov 6, 2020 -- 12:47PM, toonboy wrote:

Under what scenario can koala still win? Her market fired up again? Even if Biden dies he is still the winner of the ballot?

The ballot paper vote is for president & vice president. trump/pence or biden/harris. Biden could declare harris as president, he would be vice president.

By:

toonboy When: 06 Nov 20 17:22

How likely is that? Why would he do that?

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 17:25

rofl - betfair pay out on biden as soon as penn goes 100k+ for biden. He can jump off the WH roof, it won't make a difference.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 06 Nov 20 17:29

Swat Snatch Squad being Readied to Get Don out

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 06 Nov 20 17:31

Don is now trying to Contact The Dead guy ,to see if he knows used his ballot .

By:

ostend When: 06 Nov 20 17:53

They were unable to vote for Biden, without voting for Harris, they are the same vote. If Biden wins, so does Harris, it becomes a 2 horse race until one of them is declared president.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 18:07

How we pricing this up?

Settlement Day UK time:

Today: 7.0
Tomorrow: 1.4
Sunday: 9.0
Next Week 25.0

Based on the belief that Betfair will settle when all the networks have called it. Dunno if next week is a rick?

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 18:33

Nov 6, 2020 -- 5:53PM, ostend wrote:

They were unable to vote for Biden, without voting for Harris, they are the same vote. If Biden wins, so does Harris, it becomes a 2 horse race until one of them is declared president.

BF dgaf about that (which sounds like conspiritard pish in any case) and as soon as biden wins another state by more that 10k votes they will pay out.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 18:33

I would back next week at 25/1 if it were
next week and beyond...

By:

Chemosabe When: 06 Nov 20 18:35

The US media might declare Biden the winner today, but that won't be definitive. There will be a re-count in Georgia, and it is possible there will be in Pennsylvania and Nevada too. Trump's legal team is also trying to stop Wisconsin and Michigan from formally declaring for Biden. Betfair will be wary of settling this market before the electoral college projection is legally clear, because with £521 million matched, they can't afford to get it wrong.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 18:40

A recount will never turn over 10k votes - and all the rest of trump's nonsense isn't going anywhere.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 18:41

Nov 6, 2020 -- 6:33PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

I would back next week at 25/1 if it werenext week and beyond...

well spotted, sneaky 100% book but with an nice hidden scoop for the layer

By:

ostend When: 06 Nov 20 18:43

Dave1357. google a picture of the ballot paper, it's very clear. If Biden/Harris win the 270 it should be dead heat rules that apply, only when one of them is declared president can the market be settled.

By:

sageform When: 06 Nov 20 18:47

There may be additional rules besides the ones on the betting page but it is not clear to me. I don't have any money in the market but I would have expected the outcome to be decided either when one candidate concedes defeat or when the next President is sworn in which would be January 20.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 18:53

ostend GL with that

sageform, for the umpteenth time, the market is settled on "projected electoral college votes" and subsequent events have no effect.

By:

kevinglass When: 06 Nov 20 19:08

It's no wonder the odds fluctuate so much, when people bet without reading the rules Dave.

This politics forum highlights that not many have noticed the "i Rules" icon at the top of the page. On all of these sort of markets it's so important.

Let's hope Betfair pay out on their rules too.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 19:08

Nov 6, 2020 -- 6:33PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

I would back next week at 25/1 if it werenext week and beyond...

Tbf I didn't really think about that either way, I'd probably do next week and anytime after that as separate and readjust the prices.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 19:17

Nov 6, 2020 -- 6:53PM, dave1357 wrote:

ostend GL with thatsageform, for the umpteenth time, the market is settled on "projected electoral college votes" and subsequent events have no effect.

I really think this is a poorly defined to be honest. Projected by who? I do think there's a general understanding when it's official but it'd be good if there was a reference point like AP or the BBC.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 19:46

Indeed, fox could project it for trump,
Would betfair be forced to settle?

There do seem to be 2 sources,(at least) and i
guess when they are agreed it is deemed
to be projected.

Then we have the court cases, which,
again, is ambiguous, but hey ho!

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 19:49

At least we know faithless electors don't change settlement

By:

Chemosabe When: 06 Nov 20 19:55

Nov 6, 2020 -- 6:40PM, dave1357 wrote:

A recount will never turn over 10k votes - and all the rest of trump's nonsense isn't going anywhere.

The Trump team are alleging vote-rigging, and if they are correct, then there could be tens of thousands of fake ballots. For instance, the 90% voter turnout in Wisconsin looks incredibly suspicious, considering the historical average for that state is 67% - it's 5.5 standard deviations above the norm - a statistical near-impossibility.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 20:06

Well, how many mail ballots were sent out in Wisconsin?

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 20:08

Nov 6, 2020 -- 7:55PM, Chemosabe wrote:

Nov 6, 2020 -- 7:40PM, dave1357 wrote:A recount will never turn over 10k votes - and all the rest of trump's nonsense isn't going anywhere.The Trump team are alleging vote-rigging, and if they are correct, then there could be tens of thousands of fake ballots. For instance, the 90% voter turnout in Wisconsin looks incredibly suspicious, considering the historical average for that state is 67% - it's 5.5 standard deviations above the norm - a statistical near-impossibility.

You're right, it is a statistical impossibility and also not true: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/05/fact-check-wisconsin-voter-turnout-line-past-elections/6176028002/

And postal ballots are validated as they are counted, that's why it takes so long. A recount is what it says on the tin - they count valid votes again. There is no evidence whatsoever of fake ballots.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 20:09

Lol

Turnout in wisconsin is a little over
70%

Whack job sites spreading false info

The gullible spread it

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 20:12

Comical isn't it?

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 20:14

It's not as if real info is well hidden.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 20:20

Indeed, I Googled it, it's the top result, took me 10 seconds to verify if it was true or not. I just can't comprehend how these people think. If I see a claim, even if it's one that supports my belief, I check to see if it's an accurate one. This is how they get dragged in and indoctrinated, no scepticism, no critical thinking skills, just believing absolute crap.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 20:27

chemosabe obviously not to bright

By:

Chemosabe When: 06 Nov 20 21:27

Turnout in Wisconsin was 3.2 million out of 3.6 million voters who were registered BEFORE election day (89.25%). However, Wisconsin apparently allows people to rock up on the day and register to vote there and then, and we are supposed to believe that hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites did just that. Think (Dave, your exempt) how long the verification process for that many people would take. It sounds very sketchy.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 21:37

Nothing dodgy about a 70% turnout.

If you don't understand how it works why post
Such utter guff, showing your ignorance

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 21:44

Nov 6, 2020 -- 9:27PM, Chemosabe wrote:

Turnout in Wisconsin was 3.2 million out of 3.6 million voters who were registered BEFORE election day (89.25%). However, Wisconsin apparently allows people to rock up on the day and register to vote there and then, and we are supposed to believe that hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites did just that. Think (Dave, your exempt) how long the verification process for that many people would take. It sounds very sketchy.

Well, give us the break down of early voters in person, mail in voting, voters that registered on the day and in person election day voters please?

By:

Chemosabe When: 06 Nov 20 21:53

Watch this instead. CNN talking heads lost for words when Biden's Wisconsin live tally increases by 120,000 votes in an instant, and he overtakes Trump in the process.

https://vidmax.com/video/199327-this-was-the-moment-110k-votes-came-in-for-biden-and-zero-for-trump-in-wisconsin-live-on-cnn

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 21:56

Turnout is determined as percentage of the population who voted, not the percentage of those who registered to vote who then went onto vote.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/facebook-posts/social-media-post-falsely-claims-wisconsin-found-1/ just Google it man.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 21:58

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/11/4/21549710/biden-michigan-votes-trump-retweet-election-map

Will just be this.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 06 Nov 20 22:01

I wonder how much they can crowd fund to take this anomaly to court.

Pity they dun their bollox on Trump.

By:

dave1357 When: 06 Nov 20 22:06

chemosabe is also a "harris can win" ramper you should know.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 22:27

Nov 6, 2020 -- 10:06PM, dave1357 wrote:

chemosabe is also a "harris can win" ramper you should know.

Say no more.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 06 Nov 20 22:38

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

This is an absolute joke by the way.

By:

politicspunter When: 06 Nov 20 22:48

Nov 6, 2020 -- 10:38PM, Sergeant Cecil wrote:

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.htmlThis is an absolute joke by the way.

This seems fair to me. What else can they do?