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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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Replies: 2,073
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 08 Nov 20 19:40
I heard Rudy is asking for upwards of 74 million votes to be declared illegal because they were for Biden.....sooo unfair!
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 08 Nov 20 19:53
Likely golfing tomorrow, and tomorrow and tomorrow

Creeps in his golf cart from day to day...
By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 08 Nov 20 20:50

Nov 8, 2020 -- 7:28PM, johnni wrote:


Nov  8, 2020 --  7:16PM, politicspunter wrote:Why would these 400,000 invalid votes be taken only from Biden total please?Most mail in ballot votes were for biden. Remove 400,000 of them in total, and very likely mr Biden isnt leading anymore with the current 40k.Trump was golfing today, got a little personal funtime, before the legal battle truly begins.This will be thriller of the century in (whatever country) politics.


This is hilarious. Giuliani's argument is they weren't witnessed by a Trump official, but they WERE witnessed by official poll canvassers from both parties and not a single one noticed any wrongdoing. Truly brilliant to think this is what the court cases will be based on and that judge won't just tell them to sod off.

By:
toonboy
When: 08 Nov 20 22:17
Has anyone actually asked betfair if Harris is a possible valid outcome?

Pence could actually be next President if Trump throws his toys out of pram and wants a presidential pardon from pence.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 22:25
He might be next President but that's not what the market pays out on.
By:
felidar
When: 08 Nov 20 22:54
While I can *maybe* understand the uncertainty about Harris being enough for 500.0, and the uncertainty over the winner for Biden to only be 1.05.  What's the deal with 390+ trump electoral college votes at 65.0/100.0?  Is that a bet on complete disqualification of Biden and Trump gets given all of them?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Nov 20 23:00
Thin markets but Nevada trading between 12.5 and 19, Michigan 18-20. They’re both over and done, to all intents and purpose.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 23:05
Wis 1-06 - will be extremely hard to turn over a 20k+ loss in a recount
By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 09 Nov 20 00:04

Nov 8, 2020 -- 10:54PM, felidar wrote:


While I can *maybe* understand the uncertainty about Harris being enough for 500.0, and the uncertainty over the winner for Biden to only be 1.05.

By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 09 Nov 20 00:05
Surely would have to rerun the vote in that case?
By:
toonboy
When: 09 Nov 20 00:20
I think betfair may be looking to void this market? If trump wins it saves them. I see Trump trading at 6 to 1 within a week from now. All the naysayers are stuck in an echo chamber. There are genuine cases to answer. Mathematical impossibilities all over. These cannot be ignored and will reach SCOTUS. Anyone backing Biden at such low odds has rocks in their heads. Ignore mainstream media. It is all orchestrated. In a few weeks you will see more back pedalling than a circus unicyclist.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 00:24
Thanks Donald.
By:
llama1
When: 09 Nov 20 00:49
How about Trump to get 61% or More of the Popular vote trading at 65-100 as well?
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 09 Nov 20 00:55
Lindsey Grahams been on and he's on the money, Mr Trump should not concede in a million years with all the evidence coming out
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 00:59
Can you tell me what all the evidence coming out actually is?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 09 Nov 20 01:08
What evidence?
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 01:09
I don't think we're allowed to know yet - I think it may be too bigly for us to take.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 01:11
I know this has to hurt - only 4th incumbent not to get re-elected in Last 100 years, but what he is doing will look even worse for him in the future.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 09 Nov 20 01:31
The evidence is there, he's going to present it in court
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 01:49
SS he is just stalling, but first off he has to get some mugs to fund the lawsuits as the campaign is broke. He doesn't have it in him to be decent and concede. I doubt we'll ever sway you on here about him, but there you go.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 01:58
Condoleezza RIce has joined Dubya in congratulating Biden
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 01:58
You can already see the fault lines between old school GOP and MAGA hats
By:
ffs
When: 09 Nov 20 05:04
according to what I was reading; privately the present-gop are staying quiet even though they know it's over, because they won't risk the wrath of trump and his followers. But, I'm very interested in when the market will settle - but that's a question of simply getting the electoral college to convene and formalise the decision - it's very straightforward, just takes a little time, obv recounts absolutely have to go through the process (e.g. in GA) though Biden might not need it, and chances of over-turning
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 07:50

Nov 9, 2020 -- 1:31AM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


The evidence is there, he's going to present it in court


SS, no court is going to convene without any evidence.

By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 09 Nov 20 08:00
Evidence...... zzzzzzzzzzz

and who is going to pay the lawyers?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 09 Nov 20 17:51
The Electors meet on 14th December but I don’t think they announce the votes cast until the first week in January in Congress.

Will Chump wind his neck in before then...I doubt it but this is NOT heading to the Supreme Court. They have NO evidence!
By:
bingo bongo
When: 09 Nov 20 17:58
Very frustrating that we still have no idea what betfair require to settle this.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 09 Nov 20 18:30
Precisely,it needs to be known.
By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 09 Nov 20 18:50
Agreed, staggering that a market with this much money left in it would just be allowed to drift along with no apparent resolution despite the criteria for settlement apparently being met.
By:
bingo bongo
When: 09 Nov 20 19:00

Nov 9, 2020 -- 6:50PM, Sergeant Cecil wrote:


Agreed, staggering that a market with this much money left in it would just be allowed to drift along with no apparent resolution despite the criteria for settlement apparently being met.


Yes and its possible, but not certain, that folks are backing Trump (and Harris) with absolutely zero chance of winning, because now we are betting on "what will Betfair do" rather than the market itself.

By:
peckerdunne
When: 09 Nov 20 19:04
In which case your recent Biden bet could be voided, i mean it's money for old rope either way.
By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 09 Nov 20 19:24

Nov 9, 2020 -- 7:00PM, bingo bongo wrote:


Nov  9, 2020 --  7:50PM, Sergeant Cecil wrote:Agreed, staggering that a market with this much money left in it would just be allowed to drift along with no apparent resolution despite the criteria for settlement apparently being met.Yes and its possible, but not certain, that folks are backing Trump (and Harris) with absolutely zero chance of winning, because now we are betting on "what will Betfair do" rather than the market itself.


Quite true. Is there any way we can get there attention? Appear to be several tweets asking for explanations via BetfairCS but nothing concrete.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 09 Nov 20 19:36
They’ve painted themselves into the stupid corner here. Biden is largely accepted as the winner in the US, entirely accepted internationally and has his transition team going. There are no remotely plausible legal challenges being offered. There’s also no even vaguely plausible explanation of what’s needed to settle now they’ve upended the sensible approach they’d previously taken.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 09 Nov 20 19:51
Well, one thing is for sure they aren't going to void it - a huge % of comm coming their way - not for the first time they are looking a bit silly in a market though.
By:
Sergeant Cecil
When: 09 Nov 20 20:00
Agree with you both. If they settled this when it was projected, universally, by the networks then nobody could have had an issue; "rules clearly state we settle on projected winner". They've still got the rules on their side but appear to be waiting for Trump to concede - ironically this should be irrelevant as the settlement will STILL be made off unofficial result and media projections - which is never going to happen, so is this really going to go on until December 8th, or longer?
By:
RioGrande
When: 09 Nov 20 20:18
well biden went 1.04 now 1.06 so i say slap another £100 on
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 09 Nov 20 20:57
The market is not about who is inaugurated but wins the election I believe and Biden has won, game shot. It is about when now not who.
By:
FXDUX
When: 09 Nov 20 20:59
Betfair's rules specifically refer to the Twelfth Amendment.
By:
politicspunter
When: 09 Nov 20 21:00
Go away, ya eejit.
By:
FXDUX
When: 09 Nov 20 21:05
Well, politicspunter, there's a very simple test for which of the two of us is the drooling idiot, and which of the two of us is legally literate.

And the test is this:

If you click on Betfair's rules on the market page, just above all the names and prices, do the rules refer to the market being settled in accordance with what transpires after the Twelfth Amendment procedures are activated,

- as opposed to the electoral college method of choosing the President -

or don't they?
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