Politics
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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In some respects this has been a nightmare for BF - but then holding half a billion is not a bad nightmare to have. If I were them I would not want to settle until the college is confirmed. 1/10 probably fair enough price for Biden remembering Arkle was 3/10 when winning his 2nd Gold Cup.
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If I were them I would make it simpler next time with a market like "who will be president on 21st Jan" or whatever the date is.
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Calling the who wins the election market
The next president market is a huge error from betfair, even if the rules make it clear. You would think that the lessons they learnt from next manager football markets would have shown them the importance of this stuff. Hey ho |
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I think purple are simply next pres so can't settle.
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total amount matched isn't 'held' by b/f
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I wonder how much is locked up?
I doubt it's anywhere near 500m |
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There is every reason to be red
on the stupid prices |
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All mine are settled now, didn't have anything on here.
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Market swing towards the Don overnight - legs in this market still.
Plus everyone needs to chill - Betfair will settle when he concedes. Most likely Biden backers going to get paid at some point - if they fear the Don they should trade off now (which is likely the movement overnight to be fair). Only concern would be a void market - which is unlikely as America will need to have a President, even if that's not Biden or Trump - they have a constitution to solve that type of this (which appears in Betfair's rules). Calm down lads eh |
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It has swung towards the orange buffoon over many nights
Max chance when the punters are in bed |
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Biden backers will get paid, either on here or in court.
FXDUX and Chemo can dig into the minutiae of the US election system all they like, but the fact is that the last three times this market has been settled based off media projections, and there is a clear precedent for settling off such information. At no point in any of the rules does it say that this has to be accompanied by a concession. |
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Court - ha ha - no they won't.
Courts have zero time for gambling disputes. All a court case will do is cost those who take them to court the legal fees (in the unlikely event it gets anywhere near a court). The system is **** (like the election) in the bookies favour. |
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1.08 is ridiculous, so I'm now in the market, just annoyed I missed the 1.14 which I assume was mugs misinterpreting Barr's statement. Also def a lot of misunderstanding about betfair's rules in the wider market.
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Man - betfair have put a censor on the 'R' word r1gged
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feedthepony that is utter nonsense. Gambling disputes go to courts just like any other dispute.
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and do bookies ever lose dave???
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I suspect the threat of court action
is partly the reason for betfair delay |
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They lose some small ones, the big ones only get to court, if they think they will win, other big ones are settled.
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The last three elections are not relevant to 2020 because they had clear, undisputed winners. If Biden was the clear winner, you wouldn't be able to back him at 1.1 on Betfair.
actually it's the nature of the loser which is the difference. Biden leads by more in Penn than Trump won by in 2016. for the sake of accuracy (which I realise isn't a concern to you) |
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*clear
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Indeed. As above, there is nothing in the rules that says the winner has to be "clear and undisputed", Chemo can claim that all he likes, but it is not in the rules.
At IBAS you would have to show that Biden was the projected winner - easy, as every media outlet has called it - and that there is a precedent for settling off these projections, which there is as confirmed by Betfair themselves. |
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Us election always has projected results
The use of that is the same as it has ever been, and is indeed the projection that has already been made. No court would accept a different definition of projected for settlement as it is well known. So only problem is thread the projection is altered by legal action. Trump is filling his coffers whilst filing spurious law suits so we have to wait... |
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Threat the projected vote
Not thread |
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That's very true. Media projects the winner every year and this usually forces a concession, it is clearly understood what projected winner means in the context of a US election.
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And you can be sure all those cases were on significantly smaller markets where a single individual is making a decision without a legal eye on it.
Betfair will have their legal people all over this one to ensure they are water tight in their actions. These people will be far more qualified than anyone on here - you guys are relying on politicspunter's view of the rules which is bias by his betting position (most likely unintentioanlly bias but he is SNP so who knows). This is legally watertight and as YHTL says above will be made to ensure they don't have a legal challenge by properly qualified people. Size of the market (over half a billion quid) means betfair can do nothing else. |
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https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds-and-review-result-vindicates-betting-markets-091120-171.html
You actually couldn't make this up.  |
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I am well capable of reading rules.
Ta |
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you guys are relying on politicspunter's view of the rules which is bias by his betting position (most likely unintentioanlly bias but he is SNP so who knows).
dunno if this is aimed at me? I have no idea what his view of the rules is. I'm simply stating that your view - this is different because it's disputed because it's not clear - is wrong. This is disputed because Trump is desperate. Not because it's not clear. He's lost by more than he won by last time (FACT) |
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chickens soon to be home to roost for GOP Senators. Not allowing witnesses this time last year at the impeachment trial has emboldened Trump, and I reckon he will genuinely think he can overturn the will of the people because the Senate will fail to stop him.
They're about to have to stand up to him, or back his coup. |
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feedthepony • November 10, 2020 11:03 AM GMT
And you can be sure all those cases were on significantly smaller markets where a single individual is making a decision without a legal eye on it. Betfair will have their legal people all over this one to ensure they are water tight in their actions. These people will be far more qualified than anyone on here - you guys are relying on politicspunter's view of the rules which is bias by his betting position (most likely unintentioanlly bias but he is SNP so who knows). This is legally watertight and as YHTL says above will be made to ensure they don't have a legal challenge by properly qualified people. Size of the market (over half a billion quid) means betfair can do nothing else. You should consider getting some professional help with your unhealthy obsession that everyone else is an SNP supporter. Irrespective of the thread topic, you bring this subject up every time, despite the fact that regular forum members know I am a traditional Conservative voter who lives in Bedfordshire. |
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Oh, and just to say I had roughly £20K on in this election. Less than 1% of it was on Biden to win, which I have already been paid out on. Please check the main general election thread and you will see the bet, dates, price, the lot, all posted well in advance as always.
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https://twitter.com/iFactOTheMatter/status/1326006001498271745
Womp womp. |