The Reform vote is consistent with multiple polling organisations, consistently down that is.

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP are on course for a small majority

SNP: 67 (+3 from 2021)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 15 (-7)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 9 (+5)
Con: 7 (-24)

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

6 Runners            £99,470 Matched

			100.6%		98.9%
SNP	-	1.01	1.02		1.03	1.04	1.06	£98,593
		£100,749	£27,138		£11,897	£5,092	£22
Reform UK	36	50	55		65	70	85	£601
	£40	£123	£6		£6	£5	£11
Labour	260	300	400		720	1000	-	£151
	£11	£8	£3		£2	£1
Green	330	340	450		860	-	-	£101
	£3	£2	£2		£1
Conservative	600	660	700		-	-	-	£15
	£6	£5	£3
Liberal Democrats	750	800	1000		-	-	-	£9
	£3	£2	£16

Narborough & Whetstone (Leicestershire) Council By-Election Result:

RFM: 33.0% (-9.3)
CON: 29.6% (+5.1)
GRN: 28.2% (+13.4)
LDM: 4.3% (-3.6)
LAB: 4.0% (-4.8)
ADV: 0.9% (New)

No Ind (-1.7) as previous.

Reform UK HOLD.
Changes w/ 2025.

Notable that those two council by elections both show a (relatively) large swing from Reform back to Conservative.

And yet the market is still priced as though the May 7th elections are a shoe in for Reform.

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: Winning Party

5 Runners            £133,310 Matched

			104.4%		95.2%
Reform	1.09	1.1	1.12		1.17	1.18	1.19	£117,313
	£170	£284	£106		£13	£71	£34
Green	10	10.5	11		15.5	16	16.5	£7,825
	£9	£13	£5		£5	£7	£3
Labour	26	30	32		48	60	65	£5,492
	£9	£20	£3		£3	£2	£1
Conservative	34	36	40		100	120	150	£1,472
	£2	£2	£2		£4	£2	£3
Liberal Democrats	200	210	230		510	530	570	£1,207
	£15	£1	£1		£2	£2	£3

There is definitely a strong case for laying Reform. Their national vote is steadily and consistently falling. There are signs of a tory, somewhat limited revival and that is going to cost Reform seats. There could easily be some level of tactical voting to keep Reform out, as has happened in recent by elections. They have no history in a huge chunk of their target seats. So at 1.12, the downside in laying them is minimal.

Should Keir Starmer resign?

Should: 43% (-1 from 3 Mar)
Should not: 33% (+2)

You gov, 17 april

Bizarre,

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-3)
LAB: 19% (-2)
CON: 19% (+2)
GRN: 17% (=)
LDM: 14% (+5)
RES: 3% (New)
SNP: 2% (-2)

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 9-15 Apr.
Changes w/ 5-11 Mar.

Opinion Research Poll 15th April

Reform UK leads on 26% (-1), followed by Labour on 22% (+1). The Conservatives remain on 17%, with the Greens on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 11% (-1).

Despite Reform’s lead, Nigel Farage’s personal ratings remain negative (27% approve, 47% disapprove, net -21), and have declined slightly since March.

Keir Starmer’s ratings are also weak, with 20% approval and 58% disapproval (net -39). Kemi Badenoch continues to have comparatively stronger ratings than other leaders, though still negative overall (26% approve, 37% disapprove, net -11).

Ed Davey (-5) and Zack Polanski (-11) both record less negative scores, though with lower levels of public recognition.

Year Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader


Matched: £663,614



back

lay



2026

1.44

1.56


2027

5.2

7.4


2028

14

17.5


2029 or later

9.8

13.5

UK - Party Leaders -- Month Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader

4 Runners            £51,931 Matched

			104.6%		94%
April-June 2026	4.9	5	5.3		7.2	8.6	9	£10,554
	£55	£7	£2		£1	£3	£3
July-September 2026	2.38	2.6	2.62		2.96	3	3.05	£8,279
	£5	£74	£18		£1	£40	£1
October-December  2026	5.4	6.6	7.4		8	8.2	9	£1,697
	£5	£56	£17		£1	£1	£2
2027 or later	2.86	2.92	2.94		2.96	3.25	3.3	£31,401
	£97	£5	£81		£41	£8	£18

Not much changed by his statement.

Onto the locals,...

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: Winning Party

5 Runners            £137,265 Matched

			104.1%		97.4%
Reform	1.09	1.1	1.11		1.14	1.15	1.16	£120,832
	£147	£269	£1,043		£13	£77	£116
Green	12	12.5	13		16.5	17.5	19.5	£7,921
	£56	£2	£10		£3	£2	£3
Labour	25	30	32		50	55	70	£5,697
	£2	£10	£5		£3	£3	£2
Conservative	21	25	36		75	85	90	£1,598
	£2	£11	£9		£3	£2	£3
Liberal Democrats	200	220	240		410	420	520	£1,218
	£13	£1	£2		£3	£2	£2

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: 2nd place

5 Runners            £2,472 Matched

			114.4%		88.9%
Green	1.77	1.78	1.79		1.98	2	2.18	£1,394
	£100	£8	£3		£6	£6	£48
Liberal Democrats	2.88	3.25	3.35		5.3	5.5	5.6	£603
	£6	£4	£6		£2	£3	£1
Labour	7	7.2	7.6		10	10.5	11	£233
	£34	£4	£3		£4	£1	£7
Conservative	10	13.5	14		26	27	28	£132
	£2	£4	£4		£2	£2	£2
Reform	10.5	11	12		17.5	18	1000	£110
	£1	£5	£3		£3	£33	£2

Not much Welsh polling.

There was one today less favourable to plaid but it was field work Jan to april
so I didn't bother.

Maybe that's influenced it.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 19-20 April 2026

Reform UK: 27% (+3 from 12-13 April)
Greens: 17% (-1)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (=)

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 29% (-4)
RFM: 29% (+2)
LAB: 13% (=)
GRN: 10% (-2)
CON: 8% (+1)
LDM: 6% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 6-15 Apr.
Changes w/ 9-18 Mar.

That's pushed the market about.

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £34,125 Matched

			103.2%		92.7%
Plaid Cymru	1.25	1.29	1.38		1.5	1.51	1.53	£20,652
	£100	£126	£68		£100	£2	£75
Reform UK	3.25	3.3	3.4		3.9	4	4.4	£12,975
	£195	£1	£2		£5	£31	£2
Labour	80	100	110		230	430	760	£450
	£1	£9	£1		£2	£1	£2
Conservative	540	600	1000		-	-	-	£5
	£2	£2	£2
Liberal	310	350	580		-	-	-	£15
	£1	£1	£4
Green	100	520	1000		-	-	-	£27
	£1	£2	£2

Includes

Across the capital as a whole, YouGov's survey shows Labour on 26% of the vote - down 16% compared to the last borough elections in 2022 - and the Greens on 22%. It found the Tories on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15% and Reform UK on 14%.

You gov

in many councils the margins projected by our model’s median projection are slim, with half (16 of 32) seeing five points or less between first and second place, and in some cases third.

The largest group here is councils where Labour and the Greens are both within five points of each other – Brent, Ealing, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest – with the Conservatives providing the third participant for three-way contests in Croydon, Enfield and Redbridge.

In Merton, it’s the Lib Dems who are neck-and-neck with Labour, with just a point between the two parties on our central projection, while the Tories are projected to ‘flip’ largest party status in Barnet by a margin of just over five points.

While London has not typically been the happiest hunting ground for Reform UK or its predecessors, our model’s median estimates put them more than five points ahead in Havering, with smaller leads in both Bromley, and Barking and Dagenham. The party is also within five points of beating the Tories in Bexley.

Winning in Barking and Dagenham would be a particular bag for Nigel Farage’s party, as it is the only London borough to have remained under Labour majority control since it was created in the 1960s. Newham, where it’s the Greens and the Newham Independents Party who threaten Labour, has also been run by Keir Starmer’s party since its creation, though not always with a majority.

Overall, across all our simulations, the Greens could come first in as many as eight councils, with Reform UK winning the most votes in five councils on our model’s upper-most bounds, though both parties could fall as low as one each if our model’s respective lower bounds were borne out.

For Labour, our model puts the party in first place on seven councils in its lower-most estimate, while the higher-most estimate shows them topping the poll in 19 boroughs.

59% of Britons support allowing police to use live facial recognition technology in public spaces, as the High Court rules that the policy does not breach people's human rights

Support: 59% (+2 from 6 Oct 2023)
Oppose: 29% (+1)

you gov 22 april


(they've been busy)

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 30% (+9)
RFM: 25% (+24)
LAB: 15% (-21)
CON: 12% (-13)
GRN: 10% (+6)
LDM: 6% (+2)

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 2-8 Apr,
Changes w/ 2021.