Politics
A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings
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There will always be Conservative members who will never vote for him.
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Especially the new found 6% bnp
I think most tories would accept Sunak, indeed vast majority. |
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No doubt about it.
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Any Tory threat is from the right, not the left. People can try and paint it how they like but Labour remains a hard left party. Starmer is able to obfuscate during the pandemic but clearly won't get away with that for four years. The Liberal 'Democrats' will always suck up some hard left votes, and the forlorn hope of remaining is no longer a reason to vote Labour (or LD).
Since polls now have no impact on the next GE, it's rather irrelevant from a betting pov. |
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Yes, plenty!
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If I was building a book now it would be a factor, as it will impact on prevailing prices. It certainly has no effect as my MO is to bet on what the outcome will be, ie being ahead of the polls, I'm not a trader.
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It's like we can't bet on the outcome of the next election.
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starmer's approval ratings are nice but look like they won't help dent the 40% floor the Tories have right now.
Labour are going to want to run a presidential campaign in 2024 but their only hope is that Boris picks up Trump level unpopularity which looks very unlikely |
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Presidential campaign led by the charismatic Starmer
 And you're questioning my political judgement |
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The green party are an odd fish too, as those that didn't like corbyn were voting green
Theres a few votes there that can be snaffled by a few decent policies but I suspect they ain't ever voting tory... |
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unpopularity rather
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greens are a weird one because they are the natural home for disaffected leftists but they feel more like a liberal party which is supposed to focus on environmental issues a lot more. Its not the likely home for radical types be it actual "far left" on economics or XR types on climate
As it is they spent the last election cycle more obsessed with Brexit than climate change |
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The Conservative party is typically pragmatic, if it looks like they are heading to defeat BJ will be dispatched before the next election. However, nobody knows what the political landscape will be in the lead up to the next GE. Starmer is not a relatable character and perma miserable. Fine during the corona crisis but he has no other gear. There's no indication that he appreciates the positive history of the country he wants to lead, has any kind of patriotism or humour. If this can change, I can change my view on him too but it seems extremely unlikely.
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I see politicspunter posted the same poll twice, must have meant to post this one:
Best Prime Minister: Boris Johnson 42% (-3) Keir Starmer 35% (+1) Don't know 23% (+2) 989 respondents, fieldwork 31 Jul - 3 Aug 2020. Changes w/ 10-12 Jul 2020. |
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Favourability Ratings:
Keir Starmer: Fav: 37% Unfav: 28% NET: +9% (+5) Boris Johnson: Fav: 43% Unfav: 43% NET: ±0% (+4) Via @Survation , 31 Jul - 1 Aug. Changes w/ 3-6 Jul. |
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NEW
@Survation Poll – Government Performance Favourability Ratings: Net Rating: -7% (-9) Favourable38% (-3) Unfavourable45% (+5) 1,019 respondents, fieldwork 31 Jul - 3 Aug 2020. Changes w/ 10-12 Jul 2020. |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-1) LAB: 35% (-) LDEM: 6% (-1) GRN: 5% (+1) BREX: 3% (-) via @YouGov , 30 - 31 Jul Chgs. w/ 23 Jul |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+2) LAB: 37% (-1) LDEM: 6% (-4) GRN: 5% (+2) via @IpsosMORI , 30 Jul - 04 Aug Chgs. w/ Jun |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-1) LAB: 36% (+1) LDEM: 8% (+2) via @YouGov , 04 - 05 Aug |
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On who would make best Prime Minister:
Keir Starmer: 34% (+3) Boris Johnson: 32% (-1) via @YouGov , 04 - 05 Aug Chgs. w/ 31 Jul |
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Latest Westminster voting intention (4-5 August)
Con - 42% Lab - 36% Lib Dem - 8% Green - 5% SNP - 5% Brexit Party - 2% Latest Yougov. |
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Which of the following do you think would make the best PM?
Boris Johnson - 32% Keir Starmer - 34% Within margin of error, but this is the first Starmer lead we've recorded Yougov again. |
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UK (GB), Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll:
CON-ECR: 43% LAB-S&D: 36% (-2) LDEM-RE: 9% (+1) SNP-G/EFA: 4% GREENS-G/EFA: 4% PC-G/EFA: 0% +/- vs. 29 July 2020 Fieldwork: 12 August 2020 Sample size: 2,000 |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1) LAB: 39% (+1) LDEM: 5% (-1) via @OpiniumResearch |
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Tory lead falls to 2pts following the A-level results debacle
Latest Westminster voting intention (18-19 Aug) Con - 40% (-4 from last week) Lab - 38% (+3) Lib Dem - 6% Green - 6% Brexit Party - 4% SNP - 5% https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/08/19/voting-intention-con-40-lab-38-18-19-aug?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=VI_19_Aug_2020 |
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UK (GB), Savanta ComRes poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (-1) LAB-S&D: 37% LDEM-RE: 7% (+1) SNP-G/EFA: 4% (-1) GREENS-G/EFA: 3% (+1) BREXIT-NI: 2% PC-G/EFA: 1% +/- vs. 17-19 July 2020 Fieldwork: 14-16 August 2020 Sample size: 2,083 |
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NEW @Survation Poll – Westminster Voting Intention:
CON 41% (-3) LAB 37% (+2) LD 9% (+1) GRN 4% (-1) SNP 5% (+1) BXP 1% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) 1,005 respondents, fieldwork 21 Aug 2020. Changes w/ 31 July - 3 Aug 2020. |
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Tory lead cut by five points after exams chaos. Govt and Johnson ratings down. Starmer up by 9 points.
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (+3) LAB: 36% (-2) LDEM: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (-2) BREX: 3% (-1) via @YouGov , 24 - 25 Aug Chgs. w/ 18 Aug |
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looks like the Tories got away with it again
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I don't think there is going to be a lot of movement in these figures until perhaps we see where we are with Brexit next year. Huge batch of local elections in May 2021 will be first real test of where things stand.
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however incompetent the government has been over the last 6 months the simple fact is the sort of voter that the labour party needs to be winning back and in droves has nothing in common with the liberal metropolitan thinking of the labour leadership. that is not likely to change
boris may be an idiot but he's a likeable idiot and however much the MSM detest him he has more in common with the average voter certainly in terms of what both of them think are important of course the ongoing economic turmoil of the pandemic could change all that down the linw but it's not likely to be cos people really fancy starmer and his policies |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-2) LAB: 37% (-) LDEM: 9% (+2) GRN: 5% (+1) via @RedfieldWilton , 24 Aug Chgs. w/ 19 Aug |
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UK, Opinium poll:
CON-ECR: 40% (-2) LAB-S&D: 40% (+1) LDEM-RE: 6% (+1) SNP-G/EFA: 5% GREENS-G/EFA: 3% UKIP-ID: 2% (-1) PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1) BREXIT-NI: 0% +/- vs. 13-14 Aug 2020 Fieldwork: 26-28 Aug 2020 Sample size: 2,002 |
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Opinium net approval ratings
Johnson MINUS 8% Starmer PLUS 14% So net lead of 22% |