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Early USA Democratic Caucusses/primaries February.
Early USA Democratic Caucusses/primaries February.
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Replies: 353
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Lol all these posts etc, its quite simple, pretty much the same as the left getting destroyed here in December, and thus...
4 MORE YEARS...I REPEAT... 4 MORE YEARS...you can get back to talking about wrestling  |
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Hopefully some of the thick racist clowns that have appeared will go away.
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so why is trump so popular I thought he was a nasty man who would last 3 months - or so I was told
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Billy whizzz is back..
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politicspunter
23 Feb 20 18:24 Joined: 20 Mar 18 | Topic/replies: 10,952 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog Hopefully some of the thick racist clowns that have appeared will go away. ^ Haven't seen any racism on this thread. All I have seen is people questioning the relevance of some polls that suggest DJT might lose in November. |
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the usual clumsy effort to detract from posters' points
play the silly race card - they themselves are raycysts by doing so hitler's lot would love this tactic |
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The reason Sanders will win is because he's plundered Trumps 2016 playbook, but with a different narrative.
Trumps 2016 narrative was – you've been screwed by Washington, and I'll drain the swamp and Make America Great Again (MAGA). Disastrous trade deals shipped your jobs overseas, immigrants are taking your jobs and keeping your wages low and I'll build a wall to stop them, and America will start winning again etc, etc Sanders message is – You've been screwed by the 1%, and with your help I'll bring the house down and build a better more inclusive one. We already have socialism for the rich, lets have some for main street – you deserve it. All policies are subservient to this message but support it. Make the rich pay their fair share. Medicare For All – everyone else has it, the 1% (big pharma, Health Insurance) are stopping you getting it. Etc etc etc. ….. The message is simple and persuasive. The fact that it is almost impossible to deliver is irrelevant, people deep down probably know that, but they know that Sanders will be trying – for them – and that will be enough. Trump brought new voters to the party, which is exactly what Sanders is trying to do. This is a base election, and it's all about turnout. |
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In the 2016 election folks simply never turned out for Clinton because they believed she was going to win, the result was in the bag according to polls. In the midterm elections in 2018, they turned up for the democratic party as they didn't want a repeat. The democrats took the House and failed narrowly to take the Senate.
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I do hope the democrats get their way or there will be dozens of hissy fits all over the place with disgraceful scenes riots fires etc etc
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Imagine what the many Trump loving conspiracy loons will do if he loses. The kind that walks into pizza parlours heavily armed because other Trump fans told them it's a child abuse hideout.
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like blackpool, rotherham, huddersfield, oxford, telford etc
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politicspunter 23 Feb 20 21:35
In the 2016 election folks simply never turned out for Clinton because they believed she was going to win, the result was in the bag according to polls. In the midterm elections in 2018, they turned up for the democratic party as they didn't want a repeat. The democrats took the House and failed narrowly to take the Senate. No they didn`t, the Reps actually tripled their majority! |
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Its at an even more interesting crux now with the market at 91% with all those at 1000 in there still as well. So probably closer to 88% or thereabouts. Wonder who this "other" is going to be and time will be running out. Because if it is a contested convention it will still be between those that have delegates will it not? Or can someone with no delegates come out of no where and play a part in a contested convention? Sure the democrats can make things up on the spot but if they deny Bernie this time (if he leads) then that will be the death knell for them in the general. Not sure if they would do that
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feels like bernie's odds are going to go down soon
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on betfair that is.
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MartinK
23 Feb 20 21:26 Joined: 07 Mar 01 | Topic/replies: 907 | Blogger: MartinK's blog The reason Sanders will win is because he's plundered Trumps 2016 playbook, but with a different narrative. Trumps 2016 narrative was – you've been screwed by Washington, and I'll drain the swamp and Make America Great Again (MAGA). Disastrous trade deals shipped your jobs overseas, immigrants are taking your jobs and keeping your wages low and I'll build a wall to stop them, and America will start winning again etc, etc Sanders message is – You've been screwed by the 1%, and with your help I'll bring the house down and build a better more inclusive one. We already have socialism for the rich, lets have some for main street – you deserve it. All policies are subservient to this message but support it. Make the rich pay their fair share. Medicare For All – everyone else has it, the 1% (big pharma, Health Insurance) are stopping you getting it. Etc etc etc. ….. The message is simple and persuasive. The fact that it is almost impossible to deliver is irrelevant, people deep down probably know that, but they know that Sanders will be trying – for them – and that will be enough. Trump brought new voters to the party, which is exactly what Sanders is trying to do. This is a base election, and it's all about turnout. ^ Democrat leaning voters generally favour socialism over capitalism. This is why Bernie could well finally win the nomination. The problem he faces is republican leaning voters and indepedent voters favour capitalism over socialism to a far greater extent. He will lose more democrats than gains he will make from the Republicans by being socialist. Bernie is very unclear (like Corbyn was) on exactly what he supports in terms of free enterprise. At their core it appears they do NOT support some people being billionaires. They find it fundamentally unjust that some people are so rich. They do not support the American dream. Once you take that away what is America? Remember back in 2008/11 when Betfair brought in the premium charge and growth went from 40% a year to zero - take away the chance of the dream winning and everything stops. That is why socialist economies from USSR to Venezuela fail. I hear Bernie talk about the 'Nordic model'. These are highly free enterprise companies that have limited state intervention. Yes they have a lot of welfare but they also have high levels of education and wealth. They are highly capitalist societies with small numbers of population. The Nordic model allows billionaires (although a number of them are in Switzerland now for tax reasons). What is his plan to actually achieve that in America for 320m people in a four year term in office? Like Corbyn before him Bernie will not be believed by enough hard working voters who want to keep more of their own money and decide what to do with it than have the state manage it for them. The really radical thing would be to encourage smaller/medium business and break up monopolies. To encourage growth that way to pay for welfare he wants. You cannot just offer more welfare saying you will get the rich (under the current system) to pay for it. It will not work. |
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Bloomberg is desperate to get some of the other moderate to drop out. The problem is that all the moderates agree – that it's one of the OTHER moderates who should drop out, not them.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/02/23/internal-polls-suggest-big-super-tuesday-win-for-sanders/ “Because of Democratic rules that give no delegates to candidates who scores less than 15 percent of the vote in a state or congressional district, Sanders could build a delegate lead far greater than his advantage in the popular vote.” Meanwhile, Bloomberg campaign manager Kevin Sheekey tells Mike Allen that according to his models, if the current field remains on Super Tuesday, Sanders would win about 30% of the vote — and 45% of the delegates If he does that and actually gets to the convention with a plurality of 40%-45% then the establishment would rip the party apart if the took it away from him. If he did get such a lead super Tuesday he could well snowball and actually get a majority. |
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I.T. You have some solid arguments and it's by no means certain that Sanders will beat Trump, but the converse is also true.
In an ideal world Sanders would prefer that billionaires didn't exist, but he'll accept that the best he can hope for is to try to tax them a little harder, and go after their capital via a modest wealth tax – along with closing the loopholes that allow companies like Amazon to pay 0 federal taxes in 2017 and 2018. He's not against the American dream, quite the opposite, he wants a more level playing field to allow all Americans to chase that dream, and with free public college, and getting rid of student debt along with a single payer health care system people would be free of those monetary worries to focus on their own career development – take risks knowing that if they fail they don't have to worry about healthcare. His tax plans to raise money for Medicare For All are modest and replace premiums, co-pays, deductibles, and other out of pocket expenses. It's a message which may be difficult to sell, but it does counter the “everything is free” criticism which will be directed at him. Corbyn net favourables were much worse against Johnsons than Sanders are against Trump. Their RCP averages for Favourable/ Favourable are Sanders 45.3/48 Trump 43/54. The Green New Deal will encourage growth in new jobs as well as infrastructure and house building – there will be a boom under sanders – initiated via government spending but that money will be spent into the economy and then multiplied as it gets re-spend and of course eventually taxed out of the economy as well. But Sanders will keep the message simple – 1% bad 99% good. |
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But the healthcare thing estimated at $30tr over 10 years seems very hard.
He is talking about bring in free dental and eye care as well. This is a massive transfer from the private to state sector. When the NHS started it was nationalising a tiny industry. Almost 80 years later for a country over 50 times the size to try and make such a major shift in one go seems impossible to me. Now we all know how great the NHS is. It costs $139bn a year to fund and desperately need another $60bn plus a year for old age social care. It is tremendously inefficient. Both countries need solutions but they need to be better thought out. |
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I do not think it helps anyone to be divisive against a minority (1% vs 99% etc). Scapegoating all the problems on the 1% simply will not work.
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Even if Bernie could not achieve M4A, it's worth nothing that it actually puts on a demand on the table as opposed to other presidents who will just sign whatever bill the Republicans want them to
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noting*
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How much of that 30 trillion are people already paying in scandalous insurance prices, IT?
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https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/24/bernie-sanders-rising-post-nevada-polling/
In latest poll, Sanders increases his lead, now ahead with black voters and confidence rising he will beat Trump. |
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but will the clintons stab him in the back again?
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aaronh
24 Feb 20 16:45 Joined: 18 Sep 09 | Topic/replies: 267,951 | Blogger: aaronh's blog How much of that 30 trillion are people already paying in scandalous insurance prices, IT? ^ Way under that. Remember that there are over 11,000,000 undocumented immigrants Bernie wants to add to the list. Then he is adding denistry and eye care for free as well. I just see it as a major problem if the state is going to go from zero to running a $3tr a year operation. This number will only grow as well. What happens as healthcare and social care (not just America but everywhere) goes from 20% of GDP to 30% to 40% etc? We need a solution and just opening a state run black hole may not be the optimal solution. |
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politicspunter
24 Feb 20 19:21 Joined: 20 Mar 18 | Topic/replies: 10,962 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/24/bernie-sanders-rising-post-nevada-polling/ In latest poll, Sanders increases his lead, now ahead with black voters and confidence rising he will beat Trump. ^ I wish you luck with your bet of Sanders against Trump. If he wins I guess you will keep the bet. If Trump wins my guess is you will have traded out. |
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South Carolina...
Biden 1.99 Sanders 1.99 Any price the rest. |
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Thats 100% of results in for Nevada now so hopefully betfair will settle shortly.
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Market is saying Sanders has about a 2.23 chance vs Trump. But market is also saying that the chance of a republican win is at 1.66 or Dem win at 2.50. Trying to make sense of these figures. I suppose Sanders is still only a 1.90 shot to be the dem nominee and others will have a lot less chance vs Trump. Some funny math though in these markets and totally not efficient.
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You may have alluded to this already PP but:
That Quinnipiac Wisconsin poll had Trump up by +7 over Sanders which looked a little out of line, and I was waiting for the Marquette poll, well I'm still waiting, but a Univ. of Wis/State Journal poll (538 report it as Yougov b- ) has Sanders +2 over Trump in Wisconsin (Pa +2 and Mi +7). |
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Yes Martin, up the thread a fair bit.
politicspunter • February 23, 2020 2:33 PM GMT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday#2020 This looks more accurate as regards Wisconsin. |
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For example if you think Sanders is certain to win the democratic nomination (he's not) and he will be against Trump (fairly certain) then you would probably be best taking the 4.2 on him for next President.
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Some crazy pricing though. a couple of weeks ago I was able to back Warren at 900's in the Democratic nominee, and simultaneously lay her at 500's in the next presidential market. Not to say I filled my boots big. Layed plenty off in the 30's and 40's when she got there post the debate.
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Same thing happened with Klobuchar. Could back her at 80's in the Dem market and lay her at 110 in the Pres market.
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