Politics
Early USA Democratic Caucusses/primaries February.
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Yes, Trump is around the 1.6 mark to retain his position in November. That price looks very short to me.
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There is a CNN exit poll from New Hampshire which says that 16% of voters made their mind up who to vote for today and 32% made their mind up in the last few days.
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Biden left New Hampshire today for South Carolina. Erm, maybe he doesn't fancy his chances?
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Looks like Bernie has got this from early results. Late deciders that Buttigieg was hoping to get appear to have gone to Klobuchar.
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pete making it closer than it should of been, but sanders should hang on.
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Biden is donezo after tonight it seems, warren too.
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Looks like Warren sunk her campaign after hiring failed Clinton staffers and getting baited on bad faith M4A criticism
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CNN NH exit polling
By income: sub 50k - Bernie by 21 over Pete 50k-100k - Bernie by 7 over Pere 100k+ - Pete by 14 over Klobuchar, 17 over Sanders Race: White - Bernie by 1 over Pete Non white - Bernie by 16 over Biden, 17 Pete, 21 Klobuchar |
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Didn't get to bed till 4.30 am so still a bit wobbly. One of the outcomes of the New Hampshire election is that many of the candidates who didn't break through will probably pack it in. Yang and Bennett gone already, Delaney last week, Deval and others maybe shortly. For those that continue, Sanders and Buttigieg very much in the hunt with Klobuchar extending her stay at least for now. Warren and Biden are hanging by a thread but I reckon they will stay on irrespective until the results of Super Tuesday are known. Bloomberg will be on the scene by then.
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I've been learning a little about Bloomberg's campaign.
He's built a digital advertising arm called Hawkfish which is designed to match Trumps digital platform. He's funding it with whatever it needs. The aim is to be able to micro target voters in social media (as Trump does) using data mining. We already know about his massive TV ad spend, put at over $350 million already. On the ground he's investing in people, paying double what other campaigns can afford and guaranteeing contracts until November, so he's serious about destroying Trump, either by himself or behind the eventual candidate. Part of this strategy is to “steal” staff from existing campaigns (one of Sanders S.C. Staff moved to him recently, taking all his experience and local contacts along). What he almost certainly will do, via Hawkfish, is to greatly influence down ballot races, especially I expect in primary contests to make sure as many moderates as possible are elected, such that if Sanders does get into power, Bloomberg will still be able to pull the strings of many elected officials. |
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We haven't had a Nevada poll since almost a month ago, 13-Jan-2020. It will be interesting to see if a further month of Steyer's ad bombing of the airways has helped him at all, and how much Buttigieg and Klobuchar's recent performance have effected their numbers – and of course whether our old friend Biden has dropped in the local polls as he has done nationally. Sanders by default, and with his outreach to the latino community will probably be leading narrowly.
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What he almost certainly will do, via Hawkfish, is to greatly influence down ballot races, especially I expect in primary contests to make sure as many moderates as possible are elected, such that if Sanders does get into power, Bloomberg will still be able to pull the strings of many elected officials.
and what a sad state of affairs this is |
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Deval Patrick gone now. Field thinning out to the real contenders.
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Media gives virtually no coverage to bernie,although still nowhere near as corrupt as over here at least the dems get a fair hearing on one or two news channels unlike the utter garbage we get over here...tory tv..
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Next stop on the democratic tour is Nevada on 22nd February. It's a caucus so let's hope they are not plagued by similar problems to the Iowa shambles (which still hasn't been resolved). A fairly large Hispanic/Latino population here which the Sanders campaign has been targeting in their campaign. Looks like there will be seven candidates with Bernie the clear favourite. Thirty six pledged delegates to fight over...
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Tom Steyer spent $19.2 million in New Hampshire on TV and radio...
and received about 10,272 votes, That's close to $1,900 spent per vote |
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Only person with a remote chance of beating Trump is Bloomberg.
Even then a think a real estate billionaire would beat a financial data billionaire. It is more relatable to the average American. If it is Bernie against Trump then Trump wins easily. |
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im not sure if bloomberg has an actual chance of gaining enough of the black vote to seriously challenge for the nomination.
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the only way to beat a billionaire racist Republican is to put up a richer and less explicitly racist republican
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It's all projection but dont think the Trump campaign will engage in stuff like this even when we know it is extreme hypocrisy.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1227433643309555712?s=19 . |
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There is also the difference between
Is the economy doing well? and Are you feeling the benefits of the strong economy? |
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politicspunter
13 Feb 20 08:22 Joined: 20 Mar 18 | Topic/replies: 10,832 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog Feb 13, 2020 -- 6:18AM, razz wrote: Feb 12, 2020 -- 9:20AM, politicspunter wrote:Feb 12, 2020 -- 3:46AM, razz wrote:Feb 11, 2020 -- 10:14PM, politicspunter wrote:Yes, Trump is around the 1.6 mark to retain his position in November. That price looks very short to me.i think that price doesn't mirror the polls because the dem race looks to be a long drawn out process giving trump more time to fortify his base and campaignIt won't matter which democrat eventually goes head to head with Trump. If Trump can't win certain key states, he will lose.why do you think he's so short then? Trump is such a short price because the economy is apparently doing well in the USA. It won't save him though if he can't win key battleground states against any democrat. ^ It is true to say that in every election the battleground states are the key. Not sure quite why this is such a big statement by pp here but he has repeated it several times. |
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https://www.wmc.org/wp-content/uploads/WMC-Polling-analysis-memo-Jan-2020.pdf
Here is a recent Wisconsin poll which is fairly typical. |
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Nevada- Rough demographics are 68% white (including 17% Hispanic), 9% black, 9% Asian, 14% others. A few big cities like Las Vegas, Reno where majority of population based. Rural Nevada tends to be folks born and bred there. Latest news is that the Culinary Union, about 60K strong are being leafleted by their bosses to say don't support Sanders (and Warren) medicare for all schemes as the unions existing one would become redundant in the event that they were to go on and become President. Sanders campaign has been targeting Hispanic/Latino community, turns out that Buttigieg speaks Spanish (not sure how fluent) so that may help him a little. In NH exit polls Sanders apparently got 42% of Hispanic vote, Buttigieg 11%. Biden was favourite for a long time here but is off to a dreadful start in the campaign and it's far from clear where he stands right now considering he rushed off to South Carolina even before voting took place in New Hampshire in order presumably to target the black vote. This looks a bridge too far for Klobuchar, although she is definitely on the up. Warren looks rocky at best now. The biggest problem punters have right now is that there are no recent state opinion polls, last one was published January 13th and a lot has changed since then.
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4 more years wtf is this..
 https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1227704172189036544 |
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New Texas polling for President has Trump winning...
47-43 against Biden 47-44 against Warren 47-45 against Sanders Given the perceived current strength of the US economy and no "outstanding" democrat candidate, I would have thought Trumps lead would be bigger in that state. |
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Mike new fave for dem nom. 2.88. Bernie at 3.
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Long way to go. I see Hillary is still in there at 26/27.
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What imaginary scenario occurs where hillary even enters the race never mind wins?
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No idea but she has been that price and less for ages now. There are also a few others still in the betting that have dropped out or not in the contest, Michelle Obama for example.
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Another disgrace getting the establishment democrat may as well vote for the republicans,complete waste of time..
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The narrative they use in the us,they put all the other candidates together against bernie as the centreists and him way out on the left,truely pathetic they are actually showing the total vote of the others versus sanders dreadful stuff..
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