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Early USA Democratic Caucusses/primaries February.
Early USA Democratic Caucusses/primaries February.
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Biden's campaign looks in deep trouble now, he is running low on cash and just spent an extra million on adds in new hampshire iirc. think he knows he needs a strong showing in new hampshire or his fire walls will start to stream support to other candidates rather than the trickle atm.
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Bernie could do with Biden being propped up a little bit now, but that probably wont happen now the only thing going for Biden is falling away
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Iowa results have shot up dramatically to 71% ! At this rate they might even get the full result in before the next Labour leader is chosen. Some confusion over what methodology is being used to decide the "winner". Some bookmakers/exchanges using most votes, others using most delegates. In battles that aren't close it will come to the same thing but in very close elections as we have here, it's entirely possible that two different winners could be declared by various companies.
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Another few votes dribble through, now up to 75%.
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https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225188327160152068
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I have seen some shambolic political elections in my time but this has to be right up there with the very worst of them. Results now being reported in dribs and drabs (mostly wrong) then being corrected and taken off/added on again. Currently we are at 86.74% results reported with Buttigieg very likely to win the delegates vote and it's a toss up in the (popular) final alignment vote. Who knows what farcical scenario is yet to come.
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From the 86.74% reporting which gave Buttigieg a better than 95% chance of winning from the NYT, they've finally released those results more favourable to Sanders and at 97% reporting there are now only 3 S.D.E. between them with the NYT now have Sanders by a coin-toss favourite. Sanders now has an almost 6k lead in first votes, and a 2.5k lead on final votes. There will be questions asked about the order of results release.
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A tweet from the NYT - The Sanders push to organize these new “satellite caucuses” is paying off. They pushed for caucuses in mosques, heavily Latino areas and universities.
District 3 Satellite Caucus - +12.26 for Sanders District 2 Satellite Caucus - +5.8 for Sanders District 4 Satellite Caucus - +2.8 for Sanders District 1 Satellite Caucus - Yet to report - remember just a 3.0 lead for Pete |
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District 1 Satellite Caucus - refers to congressional district 1 - which includes Cedar Rapids the second largest city on Iowa and home to at least 5 collages. The other CD which had lots of colleges was CD3 which includes De Moines and Sanders won by 12.26 S.D.E.
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I have never seen anything like it. Now it could go down as one of the closest elections ever and I believe a tie is possible, certainly for betting purposes using the delegate count criteria? I hope Sanders comes home for you Martin if the Betfair exchange is your main market. I honestly I am not certain where I stand because I have money scattered on both candidates on a few different companies and I am not 100% certain which criteria they may use to decide the winner. I could get lucky and get paid out on both "winners", equally the opposite doesn't bear thinking about.
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Sanders now slight favourite on Betfair. When I packed it in last night (with 86.74% results reported) it was something like 1.03 Buttigieg and 16.0 Sanders. Politics betting is not for the faint hearted or for those that think there are certainties!
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A bit more detail on those Satellite caucus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftTsOqVMfac 4th district (North East rural) Sanders 75% - 3.01 (S.D.E.) Warren 600, Sanders will probably get at least 6 of the 11 available (maybe more), and even if it's less that 600, he could still get 3 - 4 S.D.E. and based on the other 3 satellite districts Buttigieg is likely to get less the 0.3 S.D.E. There are also 54 precincts to report in 28 counties, 10 of which Buttigieg is currently in the lead and 10 where Sanders is currently in the lead. |
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try again
A bit more detail on those Satellite caucus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftTsOqVMfac 4th district (North East rural) Sanders 75% - 3.01 (S.D.E.) Warren 600, Sanders will probably get at least 6 of the 11 available (maybe more), and even if it's less that 600, he could still get 3 - 4 S.D.E. and based on the other 3 satellite districts Buttigieg is likely to get less the 0.3 S.D.E. There are also 54 precincts to report in 28 counties, 10 of which Buttigieg is currently in the lead and 10 where Sanders is currently in the lead. |
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one last time
A bit more detail on those Satellite caucus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftTsOqVMfac 4th district (North East rural) Sanders 75% - 3.01 (S.D.E.) Warren 3% - 0.03 Biden 5% - 0.21 Klobuchar 7% - 0.29 Buttigieg 5% - 0.21 3rd district (Des Moines) Sanders 69% - 12.45 (S.D.E.) Warren 6% - 1.09 Biden 16% - 2.98 Klobuchar 8% - 1.4 Buttigieg 1% - 0.19 2nd district (South East and includes Iowa City College) Sanders 53% - 5.38 (S.D.E.) Warren 21% - 2.3 Biden 6% - 0.68 Klobuchar 12% - 1.3 Buttigieg 0% - 0.03 4th district - If 600 or less people participated then there are 5.6 S.D.E. available if more then it's 11 S.D.E. These have been a disaster for Buttigieg who has received 0.43 S.D.E. for Sanders 20.84 S.D.E. So we are really betting on the Turnout in that last Satellite. If it's GT 600, Sanders will probably get at least 6 of the 11 available (maybe more), and even if it's less that 600, he could still get 3 - 4 S.D.E. and based on the other 3 satellite districts Buttigieg is likely to get less the 0.3 S.D.E. There are also 54 precincts to report in 28 counties, 10 of which Buttigieg is currently in the lead and 10 where Sanders is currently in the lead. |
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Recanvass..
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Anyone have any idea when we might see the last few voting percent of this shambles trickle in?
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This morning I find that 99.94% of the results have been reported leaving just one precinct of one district left. At the moment Buttigieg has 564 delegates compared to Sanders 562. Sanders has more popular votes in the first alignment criteria, 45826 against Buttigieg 43195. Not clear yet if this is "official" and set in stone or if any market makers have paid out.
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https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/1225617105078255617
big if true |
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Pete up 10+ pts in 1 NH poll. Perfectly normal
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That israeli app not doing the rounds is it..
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Iowa not cleared up yet but let's move on to the next election which is New Hampshire on Tuesday. Shouldn't be any of the farcical issues that the Iowa caucus had because NH is a primary, you cast your vote in a polling booth, they get added up, highest votes wins. Biden had a disaster in Iowa, scraping fourth and is a 50/1 shot. He can't win I don't think but voters who previously had intended to vote for him could influence the result. Klobuchar put up a decent show in Iowa without threatening to win, she is at least a 50/1 shot but like Biden her potential voters could affect the result. Warren was third in Iowa. Not disgraced but never looked like winning in the last month or so of the campaign. She needs a fairly decent result here to maintain some sort of chance in the race. That brings us to the main protagonists, Buttigieg and Sanders. Buttigieg is on a roll, effectively tying with Sanders in Iowa and shooting up the opinion polls as a consequence. He still has ground to make up on the favourite here Sanders but a win is possible. Currently, he is a 3/1 shot. Bernie is a big favourite, roughly 2/5 but he was a bigger favourite before Iowa. His problem is that he has a fanatical core support but isn't particularly appealing to possible switching voters from weakening candidates. Buttigieg is and 3/1 is fair current value.
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We know that some chunk of Biden's support naturally comes from him being the supposed front runner and the best option to beat Trump.
For the win at all costs voter, how many of these switch to Pete and how many to Bernie? As we know, Pete previously had no black support and assume this remains the same for other POC. The moderates are obviously overwhelmingly going one way though |
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Everyone going for Pete tonight. Funnily enough, Klobuchar seems to be the one who dislikes him the most
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Reading first debate report, commentator has Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Sanders as winners, Biden and Warren as losers, Yang and Steyer shouldn't even be on the stage. A lot of money coming for Buttigieg as a new poll in NH puts him ahead. Thankfully managed to alleviate my bad betting position on Sanders here thanks to trading out just about everyone else!
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Warren was way down on time spoken in the debate, disproportionately to say Biden.
Steyer and Yang are good performers but noone is gonna believe they are legitimate contenders |
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Billionaire Steyer by all accounts had a good debate on Friday and is a big outsider for the Democratic nomination, but in the same way that Buttigieg strategy was all about the first two states, Steyer focus has been on Nevada and South Carolina.
According to a report mid January : “Steyer’s ads ran 5,721 times in Nevada-based media markets between December 1 and January 9. The other Democratic candidates aired six total ad spots combined in the state over that same time period.” He's also had ad buy in S.C. which has eclipsed his rivals (Bloomberg concentrating on super Tuesday) and has also employed a shed load of african americans to work on his campaign in the state. In the last Fox poll (5-7 Jan) he had moved up to 15% in S.C. And 12% in Nevada. But polling in Nevada have been few and far between, with a couple of lesser known S.C. Poll giving Steyers 18% and 19%. Morning Consort poll which includes Nevada and South Carolina in an “Early States” sub poll from Morning Consort which has 682 from the first 4 states, so it's a small sample, but considering Steyers is/was polling between 2% and 4% in the first two states, in this sub-poll he is polling at 19%, behind Biden 23% and Sanders 20%. With such a small sample we need to take the sub-poll with a pinch of salt but it could be indicative of how easy it is to buy polling numbers if not actual votes. If Binden does implode then Steyers is in a good position to collect some of those voters in S.C. Steyers is unlikely to win Nevada but a top three finish could give him a springboard into South Carolina and the current 19.0 might then look a little big especially if Biden falters. |
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politicspunter 15 Jan 20 16:54
Trump has been giving Biden the big welly for a year now but it isn't having any noticeable impact on Bidens polling, if anything it is more solid than ever. With that in mind I see that Bidens price for Iowa is shortening up as he never appeared to make any howlers in last nights debate. Biden another name to join the long list that Trump has slayed. |
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Steyer price definitely worth keeping a close eye on for the reasons you say Martin.
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A couple of days ago one of the experienced TV pundits opined the view that often the winner of Iowa gets an initial bump in the polls from their Iowa win in the New Hampshire polls, but that peaks then tends to fall back, especially when there are two weeks between the two contests. This year there are just 8 days between the two contests and Buttigieg on the back of his “win” in Iowa received a massive bump in the polls which took him into the lead in one, but may have peaked.
There are two daily tracker poll in N.H. this year, the A- rated Suffolk University and A- rated Emerson College, the latter has tended to over state Sanders support this cycle. Buttigieg's support in the Suffolk University poll went from 11% on the 4th Feb (day after Iowa), to 15%, 19%, 23%, 25% on the subsequent days and dropped to 22% yesterday, Sanders staying mainly on 24% over that period. In the Emerson College Poll over the same period Buttigieg's support went from 12%, 17%, 21%, 23%, 24%, then down to 20% on Saturday, Sanders weakening slightly from 32% to 30% over that period. Both polls show a small drop on Buttigieg's support which may have been the steam running out of his post Iowa bump or the result of several debate attack lines on Friday, or both. In the Suffolk University poll over the same period Biden has gone from 18% to a 10% 4th place, Warren from 13% to 13% via 11% and 14%, and Klobuchar from 6% to 9%. In the Emerson College Poll over the same period Biden has gone from 13% to a 11% 5th place, Warren from 13% to 12% via 11% , and Klobuchar from 12% to 13% via 9%. |
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The prices for NH look about right now. Best I can see is 1.36 Bernie and 3.75 Buttigieg, 40s and upwards the rest.
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The Iowa result has plunged a big pin into the Biden balloon in the latest Quinnipiac University poll (a B+ poll).
The last 5 Quinnipiac polls had Biden on 24%, 29%, 30%, 25% and 26%. This latest one has him on 17%. Sanders last 5 numbers have been, 13%, 17%, 16%, 19%, 21% and the latest 25%. The springer in the market is moneyBags Bloomberg who's last 5 Quinnipiac polls numbers are 3%, 5%, 7%, 6%, 7% and now he jumps into a close 3rd at 15%. It's amazing what a $300 million ad spend in January can do!! |
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Loose change!
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Biden's "firewall" has cracked, he won't be able to stem it imo. he's pouring money into NH to avoid a really bad finish but too little to late, he's low on cash going forward from NH and faces a 4 way attack from klob/pete/mini mike/bernie.
his gameplan is obviously to attack pete now to try and regain some of the numbers he's lost to him, his brilliant add (bets thing he's done all campaign) against pete made this clear : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3beFOnjBoE |
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Bloomberg down to 4.2! that's a big move and a very risky bet for ppl considering his buttigieg levels of support with black/minorities and his super tuesday approach with no prior precedent to base these odds on. ofc a lot of this is due to the pete/biden/klob 3 way vote split among moderates so far
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i think klobuchar is a dark horse to pick up votes from biden/pete and possibly become a major contender. doesn't seem likely by any means but her odds represent value to me, especially last week when she was in the 200's iirc.
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NH voting today. Polls have Sanders I reckon about 5% in front but there are one or two signs that the gap may have closed a little. The three most recent polls (albeit not from the strongest rated companies) conducted up to and including February 10th have Sanders ahead by 2, 3 and a tie. The current odds are 1.23 Sanders and 6.2 Buttigieg. Sanders definitely favourite but 6.2 is way too high for Buttigieg.
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Just to say that anyone who wishes to place a bet on these USA events should check the bookmaker/exchange rules carefully as they are not all paying out under the same criteria.
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Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump losing to everyone:
Bloomberg beats Trump 51-42 Sanders beats Trump 51-43 Biden beats Trump 50-43 Klobuchar beats Trump 49-43 Warren beats Trump 48-44 Buttigieg beats Trump 47-43 |