Gabbard is a centrist?

Thats the point though no narrative on other candidates votes transferring to sanders,exactly the same crap over here trying to influence to diverge to the middle all the time..

msm all pushing against sanders,they don't say all the warren voters will transfer over too sanders they show him with his percentages in these primaries and then do his versus the others totalled as though he's a minority,completely biased.

The narrative that only centrists can win and the % of vote iis all behind the when they collude around wallstreet pete.

THE AMERICAN ISRAEL Public Affairs Committee is helping to fund a Super PAC launching attack ads against Sen. Bernie Sanders in Nevada on Saturday, according to two sources with knowledge of the arrangement. The ads are being run by a group called Democratic Majority for Israel, founded by longtime AIPAC strategist Mark Mellman.

The Nevada attack ads, which will air in media markets in Reno and Las Vegas, follow a similar spending blitz by DMFI ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Like the ads that aired in Iowa, the Nevada ads will attack Sanders on the idea that he’s not electable, Mediaite reported.

DMFI spent $800,000 on the Iowa ads, while the spending on the Nevada ads remains private. AIPAC is helping bankroll the anti-Sanders project by allowing donations to DMFI to count as contributions to AIPAC, the sources said. As is typical with most big-money giving programs, the more a donor gives to AIPAC, the higher tier they can claim — $100,000 level, $1 million level, and so on — and the more benefits accrue to them. A $100,000 donor gets more access to members of Congress at private functions, for instance, than someone who merely pays AIPAC’s conference fee. A $1 million donor gets still more, which means that it is important to donors to have their contributions tallied. There is also status within social networks attached to one’s tier of giving. The arrangement allows donors to give directly to DMFI, which is required to file disclosures naming its donors, without AIPAC’s fingerprints.

Rachel Rosen, a spokesperson for DMFI, said she was unaware of any AIPAC encouragement to donate to the organization. “As far as we know, what you are suggesting is completely untrue,” she said. “But because we are a separate organization, we can’t know exactly what other organizations are doing. Therefore, we are the wrong address for the the specific questions you ask — they need to [be] directed to AIPAC.”

AIPAC denied the arrangement. “AIPAC is not and has not been involved in the ad campaigns of any political action committee,” spokesperson Marshall Wittmann wrote in an email. “The accusation that AIPAC is providing benefits to members for donating to fund these political ads or this political action committee is completely false and has no basis in fact.”

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In the past, AIPAC enjoyed broad bipartisan support in Congress. But as it’s cozied up to the GOP in recent years and taken a harder right-wing stance on Israel policy, reflecting a rightward drift in Israel, more Democrats are cutting ties with the group and tacking further left. AIPAC’s faltering relationship with Democrats was the initial spur for Mellman’s new organization, founded by donors and operatives linked to AIPAC.

On Wednesday, Rep. Betty McCollum slammed AIPAC as trafficking in “hate speech” for a recent social media ad campaign that warned that “radicals in Congress” presented a threat “maybe more sinister” than the Islamic State, along with photos of Reps. Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and McCollum. Representatives of AIPAC spent Wednesday and Thursday on Capitol Hill apologizing in private meetings with House Democrats for those ads, claiming that they were made by AIPAC’s Democratic digital firm (though how that shifts responsibility from AIPAC is unclear). Omar, Tlaib, and McCollum were not invited to — nor even aware of — those meetings, despite being the subjects of the ads, Tlaib and Omar told The Intercept.

Sanders has long been one of the most outspoken critics of unconditional U.S. support for Israel and has become an even sharper critic of the alliance during his 2020 campaign. He said in October that he would condition military aid to Israel on changing its settlement policy, and redirect some military aid to humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. DMFI sent a fundraising email in January attacking Sanders for that comment. While Sanders would certainly be more sympathetic to Palestinians than any president in U.S. history, he tends to qualify support for Palestinian rights by first prioritizing Israel’s security.

DMFI’s anti-Sanders ads that aired in Iowa in the week leading up to the caucuses had nothing to do with Israel or the Middle East. Instead, they focused on his label as a democratic socialist and his recent heart attack. Following that ad buy, Sanders raised $1.3 million in one day.

The DMFI ads have been controversial and represent one of the first Super PAC interventions by a Democratic group against a Democratic presidential candidate in the post-Citizens United era. (Hillary Clinton in 2016 had the benefit of the group Correct the Record, which was legally a Super PAC and attacked Sanders. The group  coordinated with the Clinton campaign, rather than operating independently, yet that coordination went unpunished.) But the revelation that AIPAC has been encouraging donors to fund DMFI suggests how seriously the lobby is taking Sanders’s candidacy and that it is willing to intervene in the Democratic primary. On Thursday night, news leaked that a Super PAC connected to the Democratic group EMILY’s List had been contemplating an attack ad against Sanders. In a statement, the group said the ad had not been approved and that it would support whichever candidate won the Democratic nomination.

November 15, 2016 - Washington, D.C, Washington, D.C, U.S - MARK MELLMAN speaking at the 2016 Jewish Federations of North America General Assembly  (Credit Image: © Michael Brochstein/ZUMA Wire)
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Meet Mark Mellman: the Centrist, Pro-Israel Operative Behind the Anti-Sanders Ads in Iowa
Big-money groups are doing all they can to ensure that Sanders doesn’t become the nominee, however, and after the Iowa caucuses, DMFI boasted that its ads had left a mark on Sanders. “Now that almost all of the Iowa results are in, the incredibly close race shows that DMFI PAC’s ad blunted Senator Sanders’ momentum,” the group wrote to its email list after some of the results were in. “The network entrance poll proves it. Among those who decided which candidate to support before DMFI PAC’s ad aired, Sanders was in first place by a 6 point margin. However, among those who made a decision while the ad was airing, Sanders came in 5th, 10 points behind the leader.”

Conservative writer Jonathan Tobin, in a recent piece for Ha’aretz, discussed AIPAC’s posture toward Sanders in a recent column headlined, “AIPAC Must Stop Bernie Sanders — at All Costs.”

In the lead up to the Iowa caucus, the Democratic Majority for Israel, a year-old political action group and super PAC, invested heavily in negative ads aimed at derailing the campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Mark Mellman, the veteran Democratic strategist who leads the group, told me that its efforts – which are funded by the party’s leading pro-Israel donors – helped steer late deciding voters away from the Vermont Democratic Socialists.

It’s in that context that the AIPAC Facebook ads that so offended Democrats must be seen. For centrist pro-Israel Democrats, the problem with Sanders is not just that he is the most critical toward Israel of all the Democrats. It’s that the left-wing activist base that is fueling his candidacy is also largely hostile toward the Jewish state. Sanders is backed by Representatives Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich), who are supporters of the BDS movement and are accused of using anti-Semitic language and tropes in their criticisms of Israel’s supporters.

DMFI denies that it has any link to AIPAC, but Mellman’s firm, the Mellman Group, has close ties with AIPAC and consulted for the lobby group’s dark-money cutout, Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, as part of Mellman’s work to defeat former President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal in 2015. CFNI paid the Mellman Group $241,439 that year.

Mellman’s firm has also consulted for AIPAC’s educational group, the American Israel Education Fund, which organizes congressional trips to Israel. The Mellman Group was AIEF’s second-largest contractor in 2015, receiving $1.3 million for “program research.” AIEF’s biggest contractor that year was a travel business owned by Sheldon Adelson, a far-right Israel advocate and mega-donor to the GOP.

At least 11 of DMFI’s 14 board members have links to AIPAC as well, having either worked at, spoken to, volunteered for, or donated to the group, The Nation reported in December.

AIPAC’s annual conference is in March. A coalition of progressive groups, including the left-leaning Jewish advocacy group
IfNotNow, the Working Families Party, MoveOn, and Indivisible, launched a campaign this month to pressure presidential candidates not to attend. So far, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has committed to skip this year’s conference. During a town hall in New Hampshire this month, Sanders told a student that he didn’t think he was going but had “no objection.” He, Warren, and several other candidates skipped it last year


Well,well,well Israel again where have we seen this beforeffs do they interfere in every democracy...Bernie the wrong type of jew again..

New YouGov polling in head to head WITHIN the democratic primary has Sanders beating all the other contenders (Warren was closest) - https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html

Everything probably. The caucus system is unwieldy and unrepresentative of the democratic wishes of the electorate it is trying desperately to cling on to. It really needs to be scrapped in favour of the old pencil and paper polling booth method.

Yes and Bidens price suddenly goes shooting down to currently 1.8 on here which is completely nuts. He should be a much bigger price. He is leaking support to the moderates in the shape of Buttigieg and Klobuchar. His black vote is leaking to Steyer. I can't think how folks are betting him at this price because if he has another stinker in Nevada, his support could go into freefall.

Bloomberg..

The first poll has1,756 registered voters in South Carolina. The subsample of likely Democratic voters was of 469. Data were collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR aka robo-call) system of landlines only (n=1,165) and an online panel provided by Lucid (n=591). We don't know how the final 469 of likely Democratic voters were made up of IVR and online.

The second poll of 703 likely Democratic voters  were collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=365) and an online panel provided by Lucid (n=338).

No other breakdown of how the sample was constituted.

The lack of cell phones may well  skew this in Bidens favour although the online element may balance that out. Crosstabs would have been nice.

That latest Nevada poll had:

Bernie Sanders - 25%
Joe Biden - 18%
Elizabeth Warren - 13%
Tom Steyer - 11%
Pete Buttigieg - 10%
Amy Klobuchar - 10%
Other/undecided – 13%

The first thing to say is that WPA Intelligence is a B/C rated by 538 so pinch of salt might be needed, that said the change in Biden/Sanders numbers is similar to the change in National polling.

The next takeaway is that 59% say they are going to vote early, which is massive since any debate performance on Wednesday will be blunted. I would also say that this may well invalidate any polling results if they are relying on previous demographics, since this is a hybrid primary/caucus since there are 4 days of early voting.

In this poll 18 to 34 year old make up 16% of the survey. Nevada's 2008 entrance poll had 18-30yo as 13%, but the 2016 had them at 18% similar to Iowa. This years Iowa caucus had 24% 18-29yo.

The early voting may actually encourage more older voters to vote so exactly how much of the electorate the 18-29 will make up is open to debate, but there is a chance that this poll under counts Sanders support.

On the county delegate front, they are assigned per precinct, which could actually work against Sanders. If only he and a single other candidate are viable in a precinct, then depending on how the non viable votes are redistributed he could be swamped as he was in Iowa. The difference this time is that he's already a “winner” so more voters may well have him a second choice.

A poll which gives second choice preference like in Iowa would be useful.

punter completely wrong again

must be so desperate to get back some of his huge losses

256 likely voters surveyed – results weighted giving an effective survey size of 215

18-29 – 5.2%
30-39 – 7.9%
40-39 – 10.4%
50-65 - 27%
65+ - 49%

not sure if the age breakdown is pre or post weighting

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/sanders-has-strong-lead-in-nevada

This looks much more likely to me.

Iowa (remember that one?)- After a recanvass of a number of precincts, correcting some numbers, the total of state delegates now stands at..

Buttigieg 26.185%
Sanders 26.181%

The betting on here is now...

Buttigieg 1.57
Sanders 2.14

Sanders campaign now likely to call for a full recount. This is the closest vote in USA election history. Needless to say, no bookies are paying out as yet.

How would you price South Carolina Martin?

That's because it only works on weird right wingers and reactionaries who scream communism at the first sign of a government wanting to do anything

Iowa recount in selected precincts has now been requested by both Sanders and Buttigieg campaigns. The saga continues..

Trump at 1.69 doesn't appeal!