Politics
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22 Dec 19
20:15
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20 Mar 18
Seems to be four main contenders- Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have created a gap between themselves and the rest of the field at the moment. Still plenty of time for the pack to close up but looking at the main group you have to wonder if Biden and Sanders, both of whom are in their late seventies, have the stamina to come out victorious in what will be a future gruelling nationwide election schedule. A good start would seem to be essential for them, not quite as much for Warren and Buttigieg.
Amy Klobuchar- She is 59 and although off to a poor start opinion poll wise, did well in recent debates and is making progress although still well behind. She is a huge price in some of the early state elections.
Andrew Yang- Aged 44 and again is making progress and is huge prices.
Betting has been all over the place the last few months.
Amy Klobuchar- She is 59 and although off to a poor start opinion poll wise, did well in recent debates and is making progress although still well behind. She is a huge price in some of the early state elections.
Andrew Yang- Aged 44 and again is making progress and is huge prices.
Betting has been all over the place the last few months.
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Replies: 353
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Haven't been any opinion polls out for some time. I guess there will be loads in the new year.
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If creepy Joe wins, Trump is a shoe-in.
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yeah Biden is the one Trump doesn't want hence the whole Ukraine thing
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These early state election battlegrounds are heating up. Klobuchar and Yang have now reported the biggest percentage increases in funding compared to the previous quarter.
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Trump assassinating the Iranian general which threatens a war in the middle east is todays campaign focus.
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Does the split between the war lovers and Bernie help him here?
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past
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From the bbc...
Democratic rivals debate air strike on campaign trail Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders began a campaign event in Iowa decrying the "assassination" of Soleimani, saying "this could lead to even more death, even more conflict, even more displacement in that area of the world". Trump, he says "listened to right wing extremists" and ignored the advice of his own security advisers. Speaking in New Hampshire, his rival Pete Buttigieg, a military veteran of the Iraq war, asked "what are the repercussions of decisions like this?" "This is not a game. This is going to have consequences, and having served overseas, I know the real life consequences that we could face, especially if this is going to lead to a war." Social embed from twitter Elizabeth Warren ✔ @ewarren · 1h We’re on the brink of yet another war in the Middle East—one that would be devastating in terms of lives lost and resources wasted. We’re not here by accident. We’re here because a reckless president, his allies, and his administration have spent years pushing us here. Elizabeth Warren ✔ @ewarren Donald Trump ripped up an Iran nuclear deal that was working. He’s repeatedly escalated tensions. Now he’s assassinated a senior foreign military official. He’s been marching toward war with Iran since his first days in office—but the American people won’t stand for it. Tulsi Gabbard, another military veteran vying for the Democratic nomination, tweeted a video calling Trump's actions "an act of war" that has "put us in a state of war with Iran... pushing us deeper into an endless quagmire". |
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Still no new polls and the January debate is scheduled for the 14th I believe.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-starts-2020-in-strong-position-in-iowa-new-hampshire-cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll/
At last! Some up to date polling for Iowa and New Hampshire. |
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Looking at the latest polling with respect to the betting market....
Iowa- Biden looks value and Warren worth at least a saver. New Hampshire- Biden looks value and Buttigieg is way too short a price. However, if Buttigieg were to win Iowa, then his price looks much fairer. |
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Today someone has been piling money on Sanders. I can't find any new polls so they either have some inside info or are just taking a big punt at it.
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Where do you start with the first election- Iowa? Latest poll..
Sanders.. 23% Biden. errm 23% Buttigeig...yep, 23%. |
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One of the best and previously reliable polls out yesterday for Iowa. It has...
Sanders...20% Warren...17% Buttigieg..16% Biden...15% It's very open. I wouldn't take short prices on any of the candidates. |
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Debate tonight.
Also, looks like Warren vs Bernie feud is starting. A ploy to win over voters of other candidates? |
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Warren was beginning to leak votes to Sanders. She has to go on the attack now before it is too late. Biden has had some good polls last few days.
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Debate last night. Only notable highlight was a bit of a spat between Warren and Sanders (they didn't shake hands at the end). If anything, this will help Biden and Buttigieg also.
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Bernie surely shouldn't shed too many but its whether Warren takes a hit from those who may have been considering one of her or Bernie or Bernie supporters 2nd choices.
People who care about sexism definitely shouldn't be considering Biden anyway |
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Trump is still polling behind any generic democrat in states he needs to win.
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Today a Michigan poll even has him 49-42 behind Bloomberg. No matter what scores Trump racks up in places like Wyoming, if he can't win the battleground states he won last time, he will lose.
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How is Trump's favourability amongst "independents"? I wonder if that is a better guide than him vs a generic Democrat.
It can help Buttigieg, Bloomberg (and I guess Klobuchar and Steyer) that they havent faced the full brunt of the press and more importantly Trump's attacks, which he wont fire at no hopers for the most part. I always thought it was difficult to judge Bernie's popularity correctly in the past given he had the sympathy of being screwed over by Hillary/dem machine and didnt have Trump and a right wing media going full on red scare for a year |
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It seems to be me that in the USA you are either for Trump or against him, there is very little undecided middle ground. If you are in one of the for/against camps you are normally incredibly enthusiastic for that side. This doesn't augur well at all for Trump. In the 2016 election he lost the popular vote, I strongly suspect he will lose it again. However, he did win key marginal states, mostly because Clinton supporters, particularly black voters, assumed that Clinton had these states in the bag and therefore didn't turn up to vote. When it reached the midterm elections in November 2019, those voters did show up and they whupped the republicans. If they turn up withe same enthusiasm again, Trump loses.
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Trump has been giving Biden the big welly for a year now but it isn't having any noticeable impact on Bidens polling, if anything it is more solid than ever. With that in mind I see that Bidens price for Iowa is shortening up as he never appeared to make any howlers in last nights debate.
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New polling today has Trump behind in Florida, a must win state for him.
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I wouldn't worry too much about polling 10 months out. So much can happen between now and November.
Trump was well behind double digits with just weeks to go last time and talking about grabbing women by the **** and still won. His price is in to 1.9 on the market to be 2020 president was 2.3 in November and has been shortening every day. Ultimately the key factors will be who he is up against - none are particularly strong and what is the state of the economy. |
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All true but remember Trump actually lost the popular vote in the 2016 election.
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Highly unlikely he will win the popular vote this time - doesn't matter as that isn't the metric presidents are elected on
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The reasons Bernie Sanders will win Iowa.
1 – Residual support. - There may have only been 2 real contenders in 2016, but Bernie only lost by 0.3% with 48.6% of the vote. So a lot of the current caucus attendees have already voted for Bernie, and for those who have yet to make up their mind who did vote for him before he has a head start. 2 – Polls underestimate him – back in 2016 the polls in the final week gave Clinton a lead of between 3% and 11%, and he lost by just 0.3%, so the polls didn't pick up Sanders level of support, which could well happen again this time around. A big plus is that he's been either second or leading in most recent polls. 3 – He has the most volunteers – Although Warren and Buttigieg have more offices, Bernie has a deeper ground game since it started back in 2016, and revived last year. His 2016 run was mainly volunteer run where as this time he has more money and more staff, but he still relies on volunteers, who also come from other states - https://www.chicagomaroon.com/article/2020/1/13/month-go-iowa-uchicago-bernie-sanders-starts-final/ 4 – His supporters are committed and enthusiastic – which matters in a Caucus. In the Des Moines Register poll, 57% of Iowans who view Sanders as their first choice say their mind is made up. No other candidate received more than 30% commitment from their current supporters. 5 – New Outreach – I've seen several youtube videos where reporters (Hill and Intercept) have commented on the Sanders campaign effort to bring new people into the caucus similar to 2016. This is one of the reasons Sanders registered lower in the 2016 polls as compared to his results. 6 – Attention to detail – even though the Hispanic population of Iowa about 6%, the sanders has devoted significant resources to get them engaged in the primary. 7 – A New Approach – Iowa is part of a new approach which the sanders campaign is gambling will give him a path to victory in 2020. https://theintercept.com/2020/01/03/bernie-sanders-democratic-party-2020-presidential-election/ Well worth a read, the final paragraph is pivotal - “Increasing the size of the electorate, said Sanders, is everything. “On caucus night, turn on the TV early, and if the moderator tells you there’s a large voter turn out, we win. If they tell you there’s a low voter turnout, we lose. It’s really as simple as that.” |
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Thanks Martin. I don't think Sanders will win Iowa (but wouldn't be surprised if he did).
1/ In 2016 he was up against one very poor candidate and lost to her narrowly. Now he is up against three better candidates, one of whom, Warren, is in direct competition for his share of the vote, appealing to a very similar group of democrat voters. 2/ He is a bit older now, which strictly won't stop him, but his recent heart health scare must have placed an element of doubt in the minds of possible supporters. 3/ He has got an active ground game numbers wise but Warren and Buttigieg have a huge organisation here also and have been campaigning actively in the state longer. 4/ Biden is beginning to get some very good national numbers as he has avoided any recent serious gaffes. He is a safe middle ground option for Sanders (and Warren) undecideds. 5/ The 6% Hispanic figure may have former Julian Castro support amongst them. He has now rowed in to support Warren. Over all, I would estimate Sanders chance as no better than 33%. |
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That's a fair reply, but for Sanders Iowa is a must win if he's going to win the democratic primary (as well as NH and Nevada).
I would not lay Sanders at anything higher the 1/2 for Iowa |
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That's my £50 at 1.8 for him on here if anyone fancies it!
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.161392765
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Some kind fellow layed me at 3.05 the other day so I'll pass thank you very much
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Who knows maybe he'll be tempted by my offer of 3.15 ...
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No probs. Happy to come and go with anyone interested price/stakes wise.
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Ok I had a proper look at your arguments.
1. We're talking democratic primary/caucus here - and as far as your characterisation of “weakness” of opposition you have to be joking. In 2016 Clinton was the anointed candidate of the democratic establishment. She was the strongest candidate Sanders could possibly face in that year. Warren had decided not to run against her because she thought she was unstoppable. Let not put our “glasses of retrospection” on. And no, Warren and Sanders are not after the same pool of voters, well not according to the polls. Warren has a much more affluent base which intersects more with Buttigieg than Sanders. 2. You would have thought the his heart attack would be a problem, but the reality is that since he's had his stents put in his poll numbers have risen and he actually seems to have more energy than before, but yes it's a question mark. 3. Here it's numbers that count. When you say “Warren and Buttigieg have a huge organisation here also and have been campaigning actively in the state longer” where do you get that data from. Sanders campaigned in 2016, then the organisation morphed into “Our Revolution” and Sanders campaigned throughout 2018 for democrats and I'll be surprised if the infrastructure wasn't there waiting for Sanders for when he announced his 2020 run. Warren and Buttigieg may well lead in field offices, but Bernie will lead in bodies. 4. Iowa is all about ground game and yes Biden is the default position, and I see him as Sander's main rival, although I can't for the life of me work out a number for Buttigieg. 5. The Sanders campaign have been actively targeting Hispanics in Nevada, and California as well as Iowa, and part of the strategy is to actively engage to bring new ( Hispanics) voters into the fold. Exactly how many of these voters will caucus for Sanders is difficult to say, but to expect Castro's supporters to follow his wishes is somewhat presumptuous especially in Iowa. |