I agree, such a random error with a single interviewer, who presumably they could subtract from the poll (their id is presumably associated with all their interviews) and compare the before and after results.

If you’re the sort of person who was glued to political Twitter on Saturday night — and God help you if you are — you would have seen a mass freak-out when it was announced that that the Des Moines Register would not release the much-anticipated final version of its Iowa Poll (conducted in conjunction with CNN and Selzer & Co.). The Buttigieg campaign got word that at least one survey respondent had been read an incomplete questionnaire that did not include Buttigieg’s name. “While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, that could not be confirmed with certainty,” the executive editor of the paper wrote, and acting with an abundance of caution, they declined to release the poll at all.

Nevertheless, a tweet made the rounds that night purporting to give the poll’s results, and after doing some reporting around this, FiveThirtyEight can confirm that it contains the correct final findings of the unreleased Iowa poll: Sanders 22 percent, Warren 18 percent, Buttigieg 16 percent, Biden 13 percent. Imagine the news cycle that would have been, with national front-runner Biden making such a poor showing in the last, highest-profile poll before the caucuses.

It should be noted that Selzer and Co., the pollster in charge of the Iowa Poll, has an A+ on our FiveThirtyEight Pollster Rating

Biden out to 11.0. Never thought I would see that before a result is in.

Democrats have learned nothing from 2016 and are playing into Trump's hands again.

National polls are irrelevant in the national election in the USA.

It does not matter how many votes someone like Bernie racks up in do-gooder rich states. The Dems are in exactly the same situation as Labour in the UK. Focusing on minorities and do-gooder uni types whilst ignoring their historical core white working class votes who want a hand up not a hand out.

Trump will win the working class votes again and take the Whitehouse again. This is even more likely if Bernie wins the dem nomination.

IT talking nonsense like usual and just thinking that because they are both left in their parties, the situations are exactly the same.

Bernie absolutely has a stronger working class core than Labour/Corbyn did. He is going to be far stronger than the sensible centrist Buttigieg would be in the very states that the Dems need to win. Trump would sweep the board against the likes of him and Bloomberg in Mich, Penn, Wisconsin, NC etc. Bernie can win these states.

Bernie's signature policy is M4A, this is something that would benefit all voters (unless they have vested interests in the medical insurance industry). It's not Labour handouts that target specific voters

aaronh
04 Feb 20 12:45
Joined: 18 Sep 09
| Topic/replies: 267,309 | Blogger: aaronh's blog
IT talking nonsense like usual and just thinking that because they are both left in their parties, the situations are exactly the same.

^

Back in the real world the more Bernie shortens to win the dem nominee the more Donald shortens to win the election.

Donald vs Bernie results in the a big win for Trump.

The Americans simply will not elect a socialist/communist. It doesn't matter how much the do-gooder intellectual classes wish it to happen - the working classes simply are not that stupid.

I don't see any communists running, IT

not fool proof but..

Data for Progress used the Lucid survey sampling platform to test three different versions of a Sanders and Trump polling matchup question. The survey was in the field from January 9 to January 19 of 2020 and ran these three polls:

No information: “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump?”

Partisan cues: “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump?”

Socialists and billionaires: “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders, who wants to tax the billionaire class to help the working class and Republican Donald Trump, who says Sanders is a socialist who supports a government takeover of healthcare and open borders?”

first one - Bernie 47-41
second one - Bernie 45-43
third one - Bernie 47-42

i don't get the argument either, a faltering incoherent biden cannot inspire any reasonable degree of confidence to beat trump assuming it's 1 of them that wins, especially coming 4th in iowa

so we have Buttigieg who isn't going to inspire many other than the idea of having a gay president
Warren - who is a better and more progressive Clinton but the value of owning Trump in debate will be well overhyped
Biden - Trump would probably be the more coherent candidate of the two in this situation

Metropolitan Elites like YOU, aaronh!

You misunderstand things. It's just everything you say around your predictions that is utterly ridiculous.

Like when you talk about communists you show yourself up as incredibly ignorant.

I cannot see the American public under the system they have for electing the President voting for someone like Bernie over someone like Trump.

America and the UK are very different other countries in this respect. Socialism/Communism has never done well in the countries that have tested it out.

He's been too manipulated by his twitter bubble and really thinks Bernie is a communist. IT has always been easy to impress by certain people he adores and has always been willfully parroting their messages, no matter how removed from reality.

'Social Democracy' is a very broad term.

The democracy part means if enough don't like sharing your hard work with everyone they can vote out the government next election. In that sense it differs for Stalin's Russia and China when totalitarianism is used to force through communism. But communism does not have to mean totalitarianism.

I stayed up till after three, eventually heading for bed when the reporting of the results froze at about 1.8% of the total. Got back up and it's exactly the same. Frankly, this whole scenario makes a mockery of the caucus system and it really should be ditched asap. Apparently the "culprit", the reporting app, will be in use again in the Nevada caucus in a few weeks so looking forward to that!
Anyway, on the betting front, managed to get £50 on Bernie at 1.79 this morning so at least I won't lose anything now if he wins (I will be +37). The guy that layed me 27 fivers Buttigieg a couple of days ago must be kicking himself though!

https://thegrayzone.com/2020/02/04/pro-israel-buttigieg-seth-klarman-iowas-voting-app/