Politics
Stoke-on-Trent Central
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A couple of things on Labour which I think you are missing with regards to the price, Meadow.
The leader has changed, Miliband although awful isn't anywhere near as bad as Corbyn. WC Labour vote in this area isn't going to be keen to prop Corbyn up, even if the candidate is a local good egg it's not going to outweigh that. Polls suggest Labour voters have left the party in droves since 2015. The net beneficiary of this is naturally UKIP. This is a heavy Leave area, Corbyn's pro-EU, pro-immigration quotes are going to be on all the opposition literature, drowning out anything that the candidate says. Meanwhile the LD's are going to be trying to swallow up the Remain vote and again will be using Corbyn not the local candidate. Now personally I think the LD price is ridiculously short, but they will be targeting those Labour Remain supporters. Conservatives aren't going to throw resources at this. I'm shocked at how short the Con price is in a seat they will be nowhere in whilst the governing party. |
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Have a look at this 2015 by election result.
Is Corbyn in charge-Yes. Are the Tories a threat?-No Have Labour a local candidate?-Yes Are UKIP the challenger?-Yes Labour not only won the seat, there was a swing from UKIP to Labour. OLDHAM WEST AND ROYTON BY ELECTION Caused by the death of the veteran Labour MP Michael Meacher on the 21st October 2015. This was the first by-election fought under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and was seen as challenging for Labour - the party was perceived as deeply split and the by-election came the day after a high profile vote on taking military action in Syria, in which the Labour party shadow cabinet was divided. There was no constituency opinion polling during the campaign (the first by-election not to be polled since 2013) and the expectation amongst commentators was that Labour's majority would be sharply reduced, with the possibility of a UKIP victory. In the end Labour held it easily with a swing from UKIP to Labour. RESULT Jim McMahon (Labour) 17209 62.1% (+7.3%) John Bickley (UKIP) 6487 23.4% (+2.8%) James Daly (Conservative) 2596 9.4% (-9.6%) Jane Brophy (Liberal Democrat) 1024 3.7% (0%) Simeon Hart (Green) 249 0.9% (-1%) Sir Oink a Lot (Loony) 141 0.5% (n/a) MAJORITY 10722 38.7% (+4.6%) Turnout 40.3% (-19.3%) In Stoke Central the Tories share of the vote has been.. 1997-17% 2001-19% 2005-17% 2010-21% 2015-22.5% Diehard Tories always support their party at elections. I estimate their bottom line core vote at 13-15%. Those 13-15% will never vote UKIP or anyone else for that matter. |
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Oh come on meadow, you know the sentiments when there is a by-election due to a death, there is that element of walking in a dead mans shoes.
Tristan Hunt vacated his post, there is no sympathy but there will be annoyance that he did not fulfil his term. |
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*Tristram Hunt
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On the other hand Labour supporters might get right behind a local candidate. Hunt managed to bring the Labour share of the vote down, popular he was not.
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Yes in 2005 Mark Fisher had 52.9 % of the vote for Labour
Hunt vacates with his 2015 result of 39.3% of the vote for Labour UKIP have gone from 3.3% in 2005 to 22.7% in 2015 |
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When Hunt was first elected in 2010 the Labour share of the vote went down to 39% and as you mention, stayed the same at the 2015 General election. This constituency I believe had the lowest UK turnout at 2015. There can be no doubt that there are a lot of Labour votes out there.
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has the labour protest vote gone to ukip because lib dem was a dirty word ?
interesting to see if it returns to labour, remains with ukip, or refinds its old home in lib dems the outcome of high court ruling and timing of by election with regard to any parliamentary debate or lack of debate could be interesting too. |
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Irregular Voting does your bias and hatred of the Labour Party have no end ?
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Nutter confirmed as UKIP candidate.
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Car crash in the making. Already reversed out of my position.
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Nuttall candidacy will only encourage the Leave voters Jed. How do you see it as a negative?
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Great news.
With Labour putting up a staunch Remainer a d the Tories standing aside for UKIP and the hope of a mandate for their Leave strategy, this by election really boils down to one issue, Brexit. We won a stunning victory in Richmond, can we possibly repeat it here? It would really disappoint the Government. Leavers are getting forced to endorse the far-Right like Nuttall and it is wonderful to see the choices of the working-class crystallised like this. Bring it on. |
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I guess we must account for a labour campaign who will misquote Nuttall on the NHS.
Anyway. Game on. |
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Indeed, ZM.
A significant battle. |
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The NH issue is crucial, and our job is to present the UKIP/Tory argument for what it is:
"We will turn on the ambulance siren if you can afford it." |
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and the deluded argument of abbot, corbyn and the rest of the PC nutters is
85 zillion extra for the NHS public servants increased by 2 zillion % there wages increased by a factor of 10 giros at £500 a week for anyone that can't be arsed corporation tax at 98% the problem is that most of us know how and where that ends biscuitbrain, jeremy and diane don't i will give you a clue - take a trip to cuba and venezuela |
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Everyone still confident of a Labour victory here?
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A NEW poll has revealed that Ukip leader Paul Nuttall is on track to easily win the Stoke Central by-election and cause a political earthquake.
According to the poll commissioned by Labour Leave, Ukip has a strong lead in the Labour stronghold with 35 per cent 10 points ahead of Labour. The by-election is set to take place on 23 February after leading moderate Tristram Hunt quit to become director of the V&A museum. Despite being a very close third in the general election in 2017 the Tories are lagging behind on 10 per cent. Stoke had one of the strongest Leave votes in the referendum with almost 70 per cent of voters backing Brexit. With support for Jeremy Corbyn’s hard Left leadership collapsing across the country and confusion over whether Labour backs Brexit or will support Remoaners attempting to block Article 50 voters in the party’s heartlands are understood to be turning to Ukip. http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election only 1 poll of course but 10 points is a lot. i do hope the mad breeder and biscuitbrain are not in too deep at 1.83 for a labour win  as i have said on other threads the labour movement is collapsing everywhere. the day of PC BS is drawing to an end. |
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Alot will depend on if the public believe the fake information such as UKIP will end the NHS.
If 70% voted against the globalists and the divisive haters in the EU referendum despite the media hopefully they will see through the lies. The Labour Party wants more immigration to get more votes going forward. |
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Nutall will be Defeated in Stoke.
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You seem very sure Anxious.
Did you say the same thing about Brexit and Trump? The odds are alot shorter for Nutall. You can lay at 2.24 if you are so certain. |
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Ok insider, give us your breakdown of what you feel the total voting percentages per party will be in this by election.
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Jam Stains 10/11 twice - were 2/5 and 3/1 the other day. Backing hugely drifting favourites is not a profitable strategy in my experience.
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Ah well, it really depends on where your betting portfolio stands. A hugely drifting favourite is simply a licence to print money if you have already backed the outsider in a two horse race.
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I dont have numbers on this. Alot will depend on if UKIP can get out people who dont normally vote but who voted for Brexit. Labour offers nothing for the forgotten men and women in Stoke. They want immigration and the single market. Exactly the opposite of what people voted for Brexit wanted.
I would not back UKIP at the current price. But to just say 'Nutall will be Defeated in Stoke' is a stupid statement for something the market suggests has 45% chance of winning. When I backed May, Trump and Brexit I never said the opponents would definately lose. It is just about using machine learning to trawl large amount of noise and getting value. I am not sure that method works for a little byelection. |
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I find that by elections are highly profitable betting wise. More often than not it's a stonewall two horse race announced a month or more before voting takes place. There are normally many fluctuations in this market over the course of the campaign, right now it's on a daily basis.
Apologies if I have mentioned this to you before but it's a mistake to put too much voting emphasis on Brexit. Local issues come first. Take Brexit away and UKIP are nothing. |
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I think Brexit is very much was important in Richmond so why would it not be important in Stoke.
Some stats I thought interesting with Richmond. In the GE turnout was 76%, for Brexit it was 82% but for the byelection it was only 53%. In the by-election there was a massive swing to the anti-Brexit woman. In stoke last GE turnout only 49%. For Eu ref it was 66%. That is a massive difference in turnout suggesting the Brexit issue is more important to people there than voting for party. Will turnout be very very for this by-election (and labour get out their vote) or will those extra people that voted for Brexit be motivated to vote? |
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Potentially UKIP have a compelling argument that Brexit voters should vote for them because:
1. Labour want to keep the Single Market which means more immigration we cannot control. 2. The process of Brexit has been attacked by Gina Miller, Farron etc and a message needs to be sent to MPs to respect the result of referendum and get control of immigration. If they campaign on this they have the potential get out people to vote for UKIP as well as switching some labour voters. |
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Firstly, in Richmond the Conservatives did not stand and Labour didn't count. It was effectively a battle between Zac, who hadn't exactly made friends in the London mayor election and the only other contender, the LibDems. It was a by election but hardly typical.
People have voted on Brexit, the results are in, we are leaving the EU and the single market. Why would folks make an effort to vote with this in mind at a by election? Firstly, Labour will say they accept the result and are here to represent the constituency and the local issues associated with it. Secondly, what are UKIP going to do to persuade folks to vote for them? It will alter the Brexit result? Nope. That's UKIP's problem, they are a single issue party and once that issue has been resolved they have nothing to offer. |