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Is Nuttall standing then? I would have thought he would be keeping his powder dry for Leigh should Andy Burnham end up Mayor of Manchester.
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Tories win this easily. Lifelong tories will be joined by Brexiteers who want to safeguard the Government's position. Those Brexiteers that will not/ cannot vote tory will vote UKIP, along with the lifelong UKIPers.
Labour voters will stay at home. Those that want Brexit will vote UKIP. Summary: Tory win Labour a long way second UKIP third but not massively short of Labour LD just about retain the deposit |
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i don't know why you think brexiteers that were/are labour cannot or will not vote tory. i am working class and naturally a labour voter, but they have betrayed me and my class from blair onwards. every single thing connected to politics is now secondary to brexit. all that matters is the delivery of the wishes of the people abd freeing us from this criminal, anti democratic gang. if i were in copeland i would vote tory for the first ever time to make sure brexit is delivered.
the labour party for many years had been a coalition of the sandal wearing lefties and the working class, but that alliance is now over. the working class have been betrayed so can no longer vote labour. in scotland they realised this and had a natural new home with the SNP. we do not have a natural new home as yet,but we know the labour party is no longer our home and they won't get our vote again. |
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Labour vote could disintegrate with Jezza and his Islington policies threatening jobs in the area.The sitting MP hasnt resigned for npo good reason,he has seen the writing on the wall. UKIP could easily go close and I reckon shab has it about right.
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Shab, burt, treetop,
How do you see the percentage share of the vote going? |
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A hard one meadow,only my guess from gut instincts but
LD 6% a slight rebound from a wipe out last time Greens 4%,some from Labour but not too popular in a nuclear area,I suspect Conservatives 39%, some extra support for Brexit PM beliefs and less contempt than for Cameroons Labour 28&, general contempt for party now as unelectable but some loyalty still UKIP 23& , a reward for referendum and drift from Labour but just a guess gd luck anyone betting on it |
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Thanks treetop. I looked at the by elections in this parliament where Labour, Conservative and UKIP all stood (oldest first).
Oldham West, Sheffield Brightside, Ogmore, Tooting, Witney, Sleaford. Labour- +7.3, +5.9, -0.3, +8.7, -2.2, -7.1. Conservative- -9.6, -5.4,-3.3, -5.8, -15.2, -2.7. UKIP- +2.8, -2.2, +1.2, -1.3, -5.7, -2.2. What might trends followers make of these figures? Well, it would suggest that the Labour vote in by elections (except for the most recent one) is generally holding up and if anything is going up in contests where they are main players. The Conservative figures are typical of by elections where they are the party of government. UKIP's figures suggest that their vote is holding but showing no signs of increasing dramatically nor collapsing. The Labour vote in Copeland has to have a bottom line somewhere and I would be surprised if it was less than say 33%. There are historical reasons why folks would never vote for anyone else. UKIP's vote might go up or down but will any change be dramatic? There doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest so. If the Conservatives are to win this seat they will have to retain their solid vote of around 36/37 %, a difficult thing to do for a party in power. The last by election won by the party of government was in 1982 when the sitting Labour MP resigned to join the SDP. In an already ultra marginal seat the Conservative candidate won as votes were split between Labour and SDP. |
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with all due respect to anyone voting labour due to historical reasons,the present day labour partys agenda is unrecognisable from that of its past.
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thankfully,looking at the polling figures,the majority of their old supporters have already twigged.
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The danger with national polls is that they fail to identify geographical areas of strength of an individual party. Labour are still very strong in areas such as London but are becoming weaker by the day in Scotland. This by election will be a real test but it's not beyond them to win it.
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Regarding both the last posts. What I think we are seeing and what I predict will happen is that Labour removes itself from mainstream politics but will still hold up in areas of high dependency and areas with high numbers of Muslim voters.
This is where the Welsh nationalists are weak, they should be killing off Labour in much the same way as the SNP are, but under Leanne Wood they are content to being Welsh speaking Labour. Followers of Sikhism, Judaism and other non-Christian religions that were traditionally Labour are moving away. Relating this to Copeland there is no Muslim vote and the percentage of those not working is under 10%, not fertile territory for the modern Labour party. So the vote Labour are relying on here, will not be future Labour voters. |
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The above post from CJ may certainly come to future fruition but it can't be denied that Copeland's labour domination is based on "traditional white working class voters" previously from the mining community and more recently from the strong union dominated workforce of Sellafield. That union mentality is not going to disappear soon as it's the main employer by a mile in this constituency.
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The last election typified the 'voting by habit' routine.
Milliband was a disaster but Labour still won 232 seats. Why the loyalty? As others suggest, the support for Labour is more anti Tory than anything else. Bizarrely, Ed Balls increased his share of the vote in Morley and Outwood but still lost. The LD voters went to the Cons. Any bi election this year will hinge on where those Lib Dems go...imo |
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I personally feel that the biggest danger to Labour in this constituency is an independent candidate to stand representing the local West Cumberland hospital in Whitehaven whose maternity department is threatened with closure.
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http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/First-candidate-steps-up-to-replace-Cumbrian-MP-Jamie-Reed-09f02a10-a3b4-47a8-9f28-087422b830aa-ds
If this was the chosen Labour candidate there really would be a"shift" in the market !!!!!! |
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A white local person with a brain would be preferable I feel.
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Well the people of Copeland haven't had much brains from their representative for the last few years but he still got reelected. So perhaps a brain isn't all that important.
I could see Momentum trying to put a candidate like that lad from Shropshire in. The local Labour party should have significant enough strength to get their own candidate in, the council elections don't seem to throw up oddballs. |
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i would have cons at 40%,lab 35%, ukip 12%, lib 10%, green 3%.
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Thanks Burt. I think it will be unusual to say the least if the Conservatives can increase their share of the vote in a by election as the party of government.
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i agree
but we are living in unusual times |
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You know it might just be me but Theresa May doesn't come across as the inspirational character that would make me want to run down to the polling station and cast my vote in a mid term by election.
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A possible Labour candidate apparently...
She's been described as a human dynamo, with a heart the size of a house. Now Rachel Holliday, who was the driver behind an ambitious scheme to create accommodation for ex-servicemen in Egremont, has been voted the Cumbria Woman of the Year 2015. Judges felt Rachel’s passion, enthusiasm and overwhelming determination to make a difference, made her a worthy winner of the honour. The announcement was made at a Cumbria Women of the Year awards event held yesterday at the Belsfield Hotel, Bowness-on-Windermere. Awards chairwoman, Tess Hart said it was a privilege to present the award to Rachel “a strong and inspirational young woman with extraordinary determination”. She established Calderwood House hostel despite opposition to her plans. Her citation said she was someone who had “triumphed over adversity, turned her life around with education, drive and a steely determination, as well as the love of her family, to win over hearts and minds to truly positive effect. We suspect there will be much more inspiring change to come.” Mother of two, Rachel, 35, whose husband is a police officer at Sellafield, worked for the Cumbria Action for Social Support for seven years, helping to provide supported accommodation for homeless ex-offenders and there gained experience of homelessness prevention. It also led to her setting up a homeless football team which has won two awards from the High Sheriff of Cumbria. Rachel’s drive to help came from her own experience of being homeless during her teenage years. She established community interest company, Time to Change (West Cumbria) Project in June 2013 (based at Cleator Moor) and focused on those who had served in the armed forces returning to civvy street, finding themselves homeless and having difficulty reintegrating into society. She learned all she could about working with homeless people, funding sources, legislation, the benefits system and project management to enable her to establish Calderwood House in the former police station building at Egremont. In September, Calderwood House opened as a social enterprise where residents take ownership and responsibility for their lives. |
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Mother of two, Rachel, 35, whose husband is a police officer at Sellafield
That automatically invalidates the lady meadow,no experienceof multicultural activity and not a lesbian. |
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Don't think lesbians and multiculturalism reach as far north as Whitehaven though.
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has corbyn found whitehaven on the map yet?
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That's my point meadow, we know that but Corbyn's cabinet do not understand how it may alienate the constituency itself when it is imposed on them.
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http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Hospital-campaigner-and-councillor-enter-race-to-become-MP-796db60f-0626-4c90-827c-e1205603d792-ds
Rachel Holliday would certainly be a popular local runner for Labour |
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I was just reading that article before your post! Would she be considered too close to Corbyn though? Not that it may be enough to stop her winning.
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she is a remainiac who supports corbyn
i hope they pick her |
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If they do pick her Labour will definitely be favourites to win this in my opinion.
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i don't agree with that
i think picking any remoaner loses it for them i see her CV looks good, all the hospital stuff, from the area, parents and grand parents miners, etc etc, that's all good but the Tories only have to find a candidate that kind of matches all of that and is a brexiteer. if both candidates are pro nuclear, local and have a good CV ( as she has ) then remain and close to corbyn loses it for labour in my view. |
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Had to have a chuckle at that one. The tories will do well to find a candidate with a parent and grandparent that were miners. Mining folks have very long memories.
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Didn't seem to do Labour any harm here after Wilson's purge on mines.
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