Pinza

Mark Johnston January Form

No wins from 16 runners this year.
The only year he failed to get a winner in January was 2007.

January win figures (120)since 1994
6-4-9-9-5-8-3-2-4-3-1-1-1-0-8-11-14-16-14

The loss of Southwell racing maybe a slight problem with 32 wins over the years but with only one last year it probably has little impact.

MJ might be in Dubai for Carnival.

All might not be lost though.
The last three years have produced majority winners from 15th onwards.
2010 9 of 14
2011 12 of 16 (5 had previous January run)
2012 10 of 14 (6 had previous January run)

January Tip. 3yo hcp runners in E (class 5) that WLTO

Update
January 2013 Performance
A poor month by comparison with recent years with 4 winners from 34 (UK) runners.
All for winners came in latter part of month (23rd onwards) and both Broxbourne and Rose Ransom had a previous run within the month.

Both winners were fillies and running over longer distances than previously ran. Rose Ransom was a Dermot Weld cast off and won on her 2nd outing for M.J. They were rare F class (6) hcp winners as Rose Ransom is only the 3rd filly to beat the colt/geldings in January month since 1995.
Similarly Broxbourne is only the 2nd winner in 4yo+ Hcps for the same month, although there have been few participants at this grade.

Henry The Navigator was a FTO winner in 3yo Mdn (the 4th since 1995) and Tribal Path a Long Break (90 day+) winner in 3yo+ Mdn (the 6th such winner but the first 3yo colt to win after a Long Lay off)

As the guy says at end of TV's Pointless "You did very well if you got any of those"

FEBRUARY Win Figures from 1994

7-3-4-10-6-3-4-0-3-1-0-0-3-10-10-17-7-14 (105)

Been busy on the drawing board over the week.
Today at Lingfield two horses took the eye

As previously stated David Simcock does well with his "spot" runners and ADJEEB 11.45 fits the bill in that remit.
Looking at 10 year stats the three previous races have all been won by winners on last run.
Sometimes things can look too good and this one was 2nd in a class 4 hcp latest running in this class 6 claimer today
might have a bigger task to beat the two WLTO runners. I'm not betting.

The other that took the eye was David Elsworths EMERGING in 12.15 Maiden race restricted to 3yo's.
On form it looks good and a worthy favourite.
The race stats show 3-3 for favs and two were placed LTO
Other race (2011) was won by FTO runner trained by Ralph Beckett

Elsworth does not appear to have had a 3yo Maiden race winner at Lingfield AW track (95-2012) by my records.
Also since 2005 has had at least 8 short priced runners (less than 3/1) beaten - and most, if not all, placed LTO
I'm also ignoring Emerging today.

RESULTS
One was withdrawn in Adjeebs race after posting and Adjeeb was then trading around 1.28
Still it got beat.

David Elsworth broke his duck at Lingfield with Emerging (4/6fav) and also landed the next maiden race with Upavon (7/4fav).

Looking at his win record over last 12 years he's never had more than 3 January winners and this year he looks sure to beat last seasons lowest tally of 16 winners.

Finished the data entries for 2012. That's a first as previous years has been done during Jan-Feb months.
Also includes speed plus,split second and Double Top for most of AW races and all races from end of August.
Also included are the "spot" runners from Mirror and Express newspapers.

The New Year resolution is discipline!!!!
Anyone can tip winners but the losers and especially ad-hoc bets turn profit into a loss.
There has to be good reasons (note the plural) to bet rather than relying on personal judgement.

Todays (Tuesday) test is the Double Top qualifiers (with Top speed plus & Top Split second)

One Way Or Another
Rangi
Jermatt
El Libertador
Merrjanah
Mullins Way

One Way Or Another is in Selling stakes and results for previous qualifiers reads 2 wins from 4 races which is not enough.

Rangi is a maiden runner for Gosden. If you follow Gosden you might know that AW runners in January has not been the routine but in 2011 things changed with two maiden winners towards end of January 2011. Last year saw a dramatic change with 5 winners and four of those were on the trot between 3rd - 13th of the month.

A check against 2012 DT data shows 10 wins from 17 qualifiers.
Support also from Mirror & Express dual spot runners in this range 8 wins from 11 qualifiers.
Today Rangi is a "double spot" and also has a Derby entry.

Jermatt does not have speed plus figures and the ratio is 4-12. Add to that the Express "spot" shows Jermatt but the actual top rated figure relates to Outbid. A discrepancy that occurrs now and again. So this is another race to ignore.

The same applies to Merrjanah in the maiden 5.10 race

El Libertador runs in a handicap 6 wins from 48 races. Also a 7yo (1 win from 9) and ridden by a claimer (1 win from 11)
Another to ignore

Mullins Way 6.20K also a handicap similar to above but this horse was a Double Top qualifier for a race at Southwell on 20th November when 6th of 13 runners and top speed (both) on 24th October at Kempton when 10th of 16.
That might suggest that the figures are questionable for this runner.


Just the 1 bet today.
£30 win Ranji @ 1.92

Doing research on Raceform Interactive Double Top which are a combination of top rated on both speed and raceform ratings.
One would think that such "information" (?) would result in mumerous winners.
Results 123 winners from 440 runners. On rough caculations a level stake profit of 11 points was made - maily due to four winners 20/1 to 33/1

By another process of backing the horse that was both top spot rated, in both daily Mirror and Express, there were 211 winners from 608 runners resulting in 55 points profit.

Period of revue 1st September - 31st Dec 2012


3rd Jan

There are sometimes complicated "system" interpretaions that show a 60% or more strike rate.
On face value Clock Opera appeared to fit the bill in 2.05 Wolverhampton.
Further study revealed that his fillies v colt runners were susceptible and more qualifiers in this remit even failed to win a race in their career.
A lay bet made at 1.52 looked even better when watching the runners at post time Clock Opera looked on the small side.
Even though one cannot be ultra confident so the finger was on the "back to win" button during race and £20 of my £80 bet was struck at 6/1
leaving a profit of £51.


Sporting Gold
Was too short for me to bet and had something to prove on it's previous runs at Lingfield
It was a puzzle why Varian went the handicap route before winning a maiden.
At Kempton, when 2nd, even the Racing UK pundit picked up that he didn't seem right in his movement going to post.
Saying that it was favourite and ran the race in snatches but just got touched off near line.
The improvement was probably down to the gelding operation.

Not sure it was totally suited to Kempton being a right hand track but certainly coped with Lingfield yesterday considering he had ran their previously without encouragement.
Reckon this is one to watch in future AW hcps

Bussa looked a way too short price in apprentice race and the "discipline" slipped with  a £30 lay.
I'm always wary of handicap runners that won their last two races.
Nearer the race I went through the Apprentice races and was surprised at the number of qualiers under the two wins latest form that won an apprentice race. That was another race that my finger was on the back to win button but the in running price never reached the mark resulting in a £30 loss.
I should have got out near the off with just a couple of quid loss.
Lesson to be learnt - Do the study BEFORE the bet.


Friday 4th January
With a 15 race card at Wolverhamton you would think there would be a standout bet.
At first glance Drawnfromthepast 4.00 looked the one.
A previous study of runners in claimers who won their last two races has an outstanding record at the start of the year.
That is exactly the opposite to my previous post about Majuro nine days ago. It seems when 4yo+ race age time kicks in the win ratio jumps up dramatically.

Looking in detail at Jamie Osborne's database was a put off though as his January win rate in claimers is very low.
I left the race alone. Listening to the race Drawnfromthepast just got up in 3 way photo.

The card at Wolverhampton is my only interest.
The listed bumper on Saturday cost me £80 and should have stuck to the flat racing, but lack of discipline took over.

1.40 Boxing Shadow is almost unbackable price after withdrawals.
2.10 Majuro is a lay bet for me having looked back over last 3 years AW claimers.
The key is the months for horses that won their last two races and taking on a claimer.
November-December are not good for such runners.

2.40 A very problematic race
Abbrachio moves from James Fanshawe and runs his first race for Ron Harris over the least distance it has run - and starts at lowest price of career.
It's up a furlong and half today over same track. I know Harris can improve horses but he doesn't seem to have had this one for long according to Racing Post (11 days before run).

Frontier Fighter is having it's first run.

Mistress Shy improved out of all proportion last time when 2nd in a maiden at track and although starting at 25/1 that was a low price considering it's previous starting prices - usually 40/1 to 100/1.
So why isn't the same jockey riding (Alan Mullen)?

Dutch Mistress ran a stormer nine days ago on her first start (25/1) but these 2yo fillies v colts/geldings rarely win when coming out so soon after first run.


It's a leave alone race today.

REASONING.
Working with Trainer databases, Previous race year stats, Split Second  - and 2011/12 speed plus/split second additions for race winner comparisons

1.0    Spent a while comparing Golden Flower and Hand In Glove before came aware that latter was non runner.
Very few fillies run and win after a short break since first run (Hand In Glove). Ignored race as GFlower too short although December month is very good for horses that finished 2nd LTO.

12.20 Varian has had 19 winners (since he took over Kremlin yard) from 85 Gallops Gossip picks (Express). The stable under Mike Jarvis had 67wins from 250 over the previous 14 years.
Yarroom didn’t match up today, but these 2yo conditions races invariably go the way of favourites. Couldn’t fancy Andrew Baldings as the stable have very few runners in these races at this time of year.
Ignored race

1.55 Tom Dascombe is not known for conditions stakes winners and Anaconda was too short for a lengthy 269 days lay off. Lay bet.

2.05 Waking Warrior came out well on system data and was backed each way at 6.8.

2.25 A check on recent speed figures collection suggests that top speed horses don’t win AW listed races.
Top was Emerald Witness.
Most of these AW listed races are won by 3or 4yo’s – and the current fav was a 10yo!!!
The S.P’s of previous winners indicate 7/1 and shorter is normal.
Settled for Be Perfect as possible winner supported by age, price and Becketts amazing record in AW listed races - with a lay on the 10yo Shadow Gate to cover bet.
On reflection wish I had set a small price lay on Emerald Witness who touched as low as 1.37 in running.

2.40. Looked hard at Haggass database for encouragement to back Lady Mallet.
Noticed a few 2yo’s that had two AW runs in maiden from Nov-Dec failed to win (Sherrin yesterday) – so wary of this fact
At odds on it was no bet anyway but too risky for a lay.
The only one that could beat it was the Fahey runner but that had been off track a good while.
Ignored race for betting.

3.00 Stand Guard is running 3 grades higher than it’s latest win!!
Speed horses – top 3 have been best at Linga.
Today split second has Tornado Force, The Cornish Cockney and Royal Peculiar as equal top today
One of them should win.

3.35 From a relatively small sample these AW 3yo hcps over 12f in todays grade are generally won by a Distance winner that was in first 3 on latest run.
Fillies and Higher weights also figure amongst winners and top 5 speed figure.
It’s tough but Elegant Orphelia (filly)T3 weight is 5 point clear top on speed but yet to won over Distance or course.
Norfolk Sky T2 has an apprentice rider (not many win with claimer aboard)
Za’lan ran poorly 3 days ago
Sweet Liberta well down in weights and no distance win
Cool Sky T1 has CD win
Bramshill Lass is the last qualifier in speed figures.

Too difficult for me.

Profit on day £23
A lot of work though.

Just a little story with extracts from The Punters Pal (About us)
http://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/20

"Eric came back from Haydock one day with what seemed an incredible tale. He had met there a man who we thereafter always referred to as “the London bloke” even after we later learned his real name. This guy was a multi millionaire property dealer who made a lot of money on the side out of horse racing as a hobby using a system for which he had paid £10,000 cash on the car park of the very same race track four and a half years earlier.

Eric got the selections. All of us, Eric included were, to say the least, skeptical. We had nothing to lose though so we resolved to place the bets and keep a record for a month. We kept backing them for him (not a penny on for ourselves) and they kept winning. It almost became boring, we were expecting to win each time. Lucky streak, fluke, they can’t carry on like this forever, were some of the printable remarks we made. But by the end of the month he had backed 19 winners out of 21 selections! And one of the 2 losers was beaten just a head at 6/1 (Tutusixtysix, August 1993).

The last we heard of the London bloke was that the poor guy had had a stroke and was in bad health and Eric, who was in his late sixties when we met him,then died age 73 in 1999.

Since those days we have been on a quest to discover the rules of this system. The only clues the London bloke ever left us were that he bought two papers a day, the Racing Post and the Daily Mail, the selection was the best horse in the race and that when we discovered it we would kick ourselves because it was so simple.


We analysed the list of selections in order to see just what the London bloke had meant when he said it is “ the best horse in the race “. You have to remember that in those days – as we hadn’t yet appreciated the full majesty of Racing Systems Builder – research meant thumbing through back issues of the Racing Post. Anyway, he identified a few fundamental factors that would consistently produce the same selections as on the list but they were among several other horses a day. However, this achieved a strike rate of 48% at just short of break even at SP. Obviously more research was needed.

So, we had the basic ingredients but there were obviously more filters we had missed. We had always wondered why he should mention that he bought the Daily Mail every day. So, one day in 2002 Mark and I spent a full day in Manchester Central Library looking through back issues, on microfiche, of the Mail. Here we made a major breakthrough. We found a factor that added 30% to the strike rate! For obvious reasons I am not prepared to divulge this factor. It took the strike rate up to 63% at an average SP of 11/10 and narrowed it down to an average of a bet a day. Not quite Eureka as we hadn’t achieved the 80% strike rate of its heyday but it looked as though we had found the system because all of his selections from his list were on ours and we had no extra over and above his list. We are not sure to this day whether we discovered his system but whatever we had discovered looked profitable ! A 31% return on investment to be precise."

Looking at their recent flat results it's not that good.

KEM 4.05  CHEEKTOCHEEK F/C 13/8F, PRICE TAKEN 7/4, SP 11/8F

Good draw but dwelt at the start. Eased up to 3rd around 4f out and had to be ridden by
Adam Kirby. He didn’t finish at all which suggests that he may have an injury or he just
didn’t enjoy running on a different surface having previously running well at Wolverhampton
in a much better race.

KEM 6.05  MARTIAL ART F/C 13/8F, PRICE TAKEN 7/4, SP4/6F

Pulled like mad from the start and barged by Rome ( 3rd ) who was spooked by something
That didn’t seem to bother him much and 2f out he looked to have a chance, but faded tamely at the end.
Possibly pulled his chance away?

LIN 12.00 SOARING SPIRITS F/C 9/4F, PRICE TAKEN 5/4, SP 6/5F – 2ND

Always front rank, one of four vying for lead off the  turn, led for a few strides 50 yards from home but mugged just before line by a Henry Cecil newcomer.
CONCLUSION; Only runner did nothing wrong, just got collared by what may be a decent sort of Cecil’s who drifted in the market

WOL 8.20 SUPER SAY F/C 5/2F, PRICE TAKEN  6/4,  SP 11/8f – 2nd

Kept in 3rd.Came to challenge off the bend, but the winner ( Desert |Vision )  had stole a march by then and kept on well.
Our jockey dropped his whip, but to be fair that made no difference and was beaten fair and square.

VIEWS
The theory about information from Daily newspapers might be workable but entails a lot of research and data input to prove the worthiness.
Having entered the spot picks from Daily Mirror and Express for the last 12 months (FLAT racing) the theory can be tested.

The database has 6273 races of which 2103 were won by a "spot horse"
Favourites account for 1167 winners and of those 348 were odds on.
Double figure S.P's (10/1 plus) amount to 130 and there were 25 winners that range from 20/1 to 33/1.

The most prolific trainer for "spot" runners on AW was Mark Johnston with 109 runners and provided 26 winners but there was a level stake loss.
Sticking to "double spot" runners provided 13 winners from 34 runners but still a level stake loss. (just backing "double spot" Southwell runners would have yielded a small profit).

It's not all doom and gloom though as there are already some gems from a skimp AW analysis.
One of them is David Simcock "spot" runners - which have a 73% strike rate when the S.P is limited
and further extract left 15 wins and 2 seconds from 18 runners to show 16 point level stake profit.

Would it have made a profit on MJ's Glorious Goodwood runners?
Actually it did this year... 7.8 points

One years results may not be enough though?

Finished entering Top Spots

Experimenting with Mirror & Express when both are Top Spots with same runner
Today
Soaring Spirits 1.20 Ling (Lay)
Zues Magic 12.30 (Lay)
Polar Venture 2.0 (Likely win)
Come On Blue Chip 2.35 (Lay)

There are two at Kemp to lay
Serenity and Harris Tweed

RESULTS of TODAYS DUAL TOP SPOTS
12.00 L Soaring Spirits 2nd 6/5f
12.30 L Zeus Magic  Won 4/1
2.00 L Polar Venture Won 3/10f
2.10 W Sweet Vintage 3rd 2/1f
2.35 L Come On Blue Chip  unpl 4/1
4.00 K Laylas Oasis unpl 1/4f
4.20 W Jack Who's He unpl 4/1
5.30 K Serenity 2nd 9/2
6.00 K Harris Tweed 3rd 5/2f
7.00 K Swiss Cross 3rd 7/2f

The suggestion that two computerised sytems select the same horse as top rated in a race
does not indicate that it is likely to win.
Ten selected resulted in 2 winners and one of those was unbackable at well odds on.

William Haggas had a strike rate of 65% in last 12 months for maidens when dual Top Spot.
David Elsworth with only 1 maiden winner (Nov 7th) in 6 races (16%) with the dual spot runners provided the other winner.

It was a poor day for speed also dual top speed from Split Second & Speed plus providing six dual top speed runners
who failed to win
12.30 Tebbit
2.35 Emerald Wilderness
3.40 Fleetwood Sands
4.30 Bert The Alert
5.30 Serenity Spa
6.00 Roxy Flyer


Wolverhampton's improvised racecard proved profitable for Top Spots
1.10 Speightstown Kid 4/1 (Express)
2.45 Maggie Pink 8/1 (Mirror)
3.20 York Glory 11/10f (Express)
3.50 Crystal Blue 20/1 (Mirror)
 
Just entering yesterdays speed for Wolver. Never bothered with the meeting yesterday.
Only Split Second was available but provided 4 winners that were top speed(in first 5 races)
1.10 Speightstown Kid 4/1
1.40 Dickie Le Davoir 13/2
2.45 Maggie Pink 8/1
3.20 York Glory 11/10f

Newspaper Spots matched 3 of the 4 speed winners.
Beginning to look to be a fair way of finding winners - much better than most tipping services.

All winners had won over Distance in the trends (since race began in 2008)
Perythepinto endorsed this in first division. (There were 4 qualifiers)
In div 2 there are also 4 qualifiers.
Brown Pete
Storm Runner
Exopuntia
Querido

Last year Gallantry won and was top speed horse by Speed Plus and Split Second.
Percythepinto was not in top 6 speed horse in last race (but started joint fav).
Cut the Cackle was top speed in that race BUT never had a distance win.

Storm Runner matches Gallantry with top speed in both Speed Plus and S Second.
Also has a C&D win.

WINNER STORM RUNNER 4/1
2nd Exopuntia 8/1
3rd Querido 33/1

This is part of the new analysis approach that incorporates, speed and spot rated into the database.
It's early days yet but the older horses do not win many races compared to younger runners.
2011 Nov- Dec months went to six 6yo's and two 8yo's  (Exopuntia and Querido)
Also on speed figures at this meeting last year Paddy Butler (Querido) had four runners in the high speed category
and failed to win with any of them. Querido was actually 2nd top rated to Storm Runner.

It's a case of picking the right race to evaluate and thankfully this one proved good today.
The risk in these races are 3yo group because many of them have not achieved enough to provide a high speed rating. (Percythepinto)

Well that's it - another year over.
The stats collection on better class races now rises to 31 years of data.
The trainer data on computer will be 19 years when this years input is completed.

Does it pay? Probably not, especially when you take into account Raceform Interactive and newpaper costs.
Any hobby is costly though but this years betting has not been at a loss.
Using the Express & Mirror spot data landed me a £20 ew double in October which was quite amazing considering the small amount
of data input at the time. I rarely back in doubles and was just testing the data. The £800+ win ensured a good Christmas.
The November Hcp stats landed a 20/1 winner and £300 profit on the race.
Overall I'm only about £300 in profit on the season though.

Now it's a case of finishing the data input and evaluating each trainer file to ascertain the positives and negatives.
Then there's the Express & Mirror spot data to incorporate and evaluate plus the addition of speed figures.
Also having cut n pasted the 10 year trends for all races from June there is the exploration of those race trends.

The filing cabinets will be sorted into order to allow an easy daily pull out.
All in all I want an easy pull out of the positive and negative daily data, without the laborious searching via computer and paperwork.

I've been attempting to get to that position for a few years but usually get distracted with AW racing and bumper races.
This winter I'm giving the bumpers a miss and will stick to a small Mark Johnston AW database prepared last year.

That's the plan anyway!!! 

I could knock all the runners for various 30 year stats reasons EXCEPT
Nicholascopernicus
Party Line
Art Scholar

Blue Surfer also has no negatives, but from the last sixteen 3yo winners none have won 10f three times. This race might not be the one to ask him to win over 12f?
Saying that 8 of the last 30 winners were winning their first race over 12f, but only three were 3yo's and one of those had won 3 races over further.

I would be wary of Suroor with Retrieve. The trainer has run a few since 2005 and in each of the five races a big named trainer has won the race.
He came close with Willing Foe last year (2nd) and runs three Group 1 horses this year!! Retrieved's form over 12f is outstanding for this hcp BUT in last 30 years no winner has had group form

BEWARE that in last 30 years only 4 favs have triumphed and 19 of 30 winners S.P were in double figures.

  [b]UPDATE - RESULT winner ART SCHOLAR  20/1

Previous Years Analysis
2011
Short List of 5 included winner Zuider Zee


at 06 Nov 2010 10:19  NOVEMBER HCP 2010-11-05  STATS 28 years
3yo wins 16
4yo wins 7
5yo wins 3
6yo wins 2
3yo’s only age group to WLTO
Only 5 past winners were out of frame on latest run.
Only 1 top weight has won (only listed race winner)
Generally class 2 is highest grade ran
Two hurdlers have won (only won 1 hurdle race between them)
Generally Middle to High draw preferred

This years 3yo participtants.
SENATE runs for John Gosden (4 previous winners) but his three previous winners in this age group all ran well on final start prior to November Hcp.
Has already won a valuable hcp – unlike previous 3yo winners.
WILLING FOE is the first 3yo runner for Suroor after three failed attempts in this race with older horses since 2006.
This one has done nothing wrong and stepped up to win over 12f at Nmkt latest after two Course wins over 10f here.
The draw maybe a negative but three past 3yo winners had a low draw.
Also has not yet run in a big field.
Appears to have 2lb in hand of Senate on form lines with Times Up.
CRACKING LASS won latest at Leicester over 12f but nearly all the past 3yo winners managed to win two races at least in current year so is overlooked as are PROMPTER and SIMEON who have both failed to win this year.

The 4yo participitants.
Generally the 4yo winners were lightly raced in terms of 12f distance in current year.
Only two of the past six winners in this age group had actually run over 12f in current season, with one winning at the distance.
5yo  Similar to above. The three winners won over 10f, 13f and 15f current season.

SUMMARY There is no stand out runner this year for me.
It’s logical to look at the 3yo’s firstly as this age group has high win ratio.
Last year there were only two decent 3yo’s but they had negatives against them
This year WILLING FOE and SENATE are decent contenders and unless it is one of those unusual years the race could be won by either.
TIMES UP has run consistently well over 12f and I liked his performance against Senate, which poses a possible reversal today.
Alan King runs two hurdlers in the race. Both ran well in this race last year.
I would say Salden Licht has interesting form with a win at the track, but its Hurdle form is really decent. The problem is that both have run at group level.
Winner TIMES UP 14/1  2nd Betchworth Kid  (Alan King)________________________________________

NOV HCP STATS REVIEW 2009 (27yrs)

Tastahil - Only one top weight has won, Yavanahs Pace who had won listed event. The group and listed runs have put this up 14lb from its 8-13 weight last year when 3rd. Two recent winners finished 4th (Tropical Strait) and 5th (Group Captain) the previous year. Likes Doncaster and soft ground but the low draw (5) on soft ground has only provided 2 winners. Possible place chance.

Friston Forest - Another Pattern performer with 100 days off course. Longest off course winner was 65 days (1983). Also unplaced latest and only four winners managed to win this with an unplaced run LTO and three of those were 3yo's.

Baila Me - An interesting 4yo who is also a Pattern performer (more this year than ever before). It won on AW latest. It would be the first winner to have run LTO on AW and the first winner to have won its previous race that wasn't a 3yo.

Charm School – Not run over today’s distance but won over 11f on AW. Only won two of twelve races but one of those was at Doncaster. There has been six 4yo winners and four of those had never won over the distance but two had won at Doncaster (10f) and another was placed in two of its three runs there. Charm School has won and been placed in three runs at the track. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Merchant Of Dubai – Only four runs this season and five is the minimum for runners over 3yo. Unplaced latest but that was a group race.

Safari Sunup – Pretty consistent but hasn’t won for a while. No wins in current season plus low draw go against this one.
Siberian Tiger – Three runs this season and all unplaced.

Salden Licht – Another ponderable runner with French Pattern form. Never run beyond 10f and only three races this season.

Broomie Law – Another 5yo with too few runs this term. Unplaced LTO also.

Kings Destiny – 3yo’s have won 16 of last 27 November hcps. Appears to have a chance with 2nd in class 2 hcp at Ascot latest and a win over todays distance in this grade. Not ran at Doncaster but has won up North at Ripon. If there is a concern it hedges upon 2nd latest run as only 1 of 16 3yo’s who finished 2nd LTO have won. Also the two winners that came straight from Ascot here were 5yo & 6yo. Slight reluctance to leave this out but watching last race he looked very tired near finish.

Magicalmysterytour – 6yo unplaced last four runs. The two previous 6yo’s had very consistent form prior to this.

Pevensey – A 7yo hurdler and flat hcpr. Age 6 is the cut off for this race. At least 13 seven year old runners have attained only three placings.


Stormy Weather – A very interesting 3yo who  finished 2nd in a hurdle race latest. Has French Pattern form. Only one run on flat at Haydock over todays distance. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage as the best 3yo today, and on fair handicap mark. A negative draw (2) but Carte Diamond another 3yo won from draw 3 on soft going.

First Avenue – Only one flat run (unplaced) but earlier hurdles runs this year
Rangefinder – 5yo with overseas hcp form. Has had 6 UK runs this term but a big step up from his class 4 hcp win at Thirsk,

Helvelius – A lightly raced 4yo who was a decent 2nd at Nmkt over 12f in this grade. That run was his best ever and the fact that he started favourite then is noted. The majority (8) of previous winners in terms of last track runs came from Nmkt. Also only beaten a nose at Doncaster. As the race is weak with 3yo’s this year he probably comes similar to the remit of Turbo and Young Benz who both won this without a win in current season. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Ladies Best – 5yo. Not a winner over distance nor a hurdler.

Hillview Boy – 5yo with very good course form and consistent form all season. Started out as National hunt flat runner (Tropical Straight last year). Won on soft going at todays course, has a decent draw. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage.

Ella – Not done as much as her mother Flossy who won this after six current term wins in 1999. Only three runs at lower grade this year.
Tilt – Too old at seven.
Conquisto – A C&D winner with highest draw. Possibilities, but has only won races with seven runners. A decent outsider though.
Highland Legacy – Three two mile wins last year but only 3 runs this year.

SELECTED AS LIKELY WINNER
CHARM SCHOOL
STORMY WEATHER (negative draw)
HELVELIUS
HILLVIEW BOY

WINNER - CHARM SCHOOL



2008 Winner not in selected
2007 Malt & Mash in selected
2006 Winner Group Captain was not in selected - but had been in selections previous year.