Pinza

I could knock all the runners for various 30 year stats reasons EXCEPT
Nicholascopernicus
Party Line
Art Scholar

Blue Surfer also has no negatives, but from the last sixteen 3yo winners none have won 10f three times. This race might not be the one to ask him to win over 12f?
Saying that 8 of the last 30 winners were winning their first race over 12f, but only three were 3yo's and one of those had won 3 races over further.

I would be wary of Suroor with Retrieve. The trainer has run a few since 2005 and in each of the five races a big named trainer has won the race.
He came close with Willing Foe last year (2nd) and runs three Group 1 horses this year!! Retrieved's form over 12f is outstanding for this hcp BUT in last 30 years no winner has had group form

BEWARE that in last 30 years only 4 favs have triumphed and 19 of 30 winners S.P were in double figures.

  [b]UPDATE - RESULT winner ART SCHOLAR  20/1

Previous Years Analysis
2011
Short List of 5 included winner Zuider Zee


at 06 Nov 2010 10:19  NOVEMBER HCP 2010-11-05  STATS 28 years
3yo wins 16
4yo wins 7
5yo wins 3
6yo wins 2
3yo’s only age group to WLTO
Only 5 past winners were out of frame on latest run.
Only 1 top weight has won (only listed race winner)
Generally class 2 is highest grade ran
Two hurdlers have won (only won 1 hurdle race between them)
Generally Middle to High draw preferred

This years 3yo participtants.
SENATE runs for John Gosden (4 previous winners) but his three previous winners in this age group all ran well on final start prior to November Hcp.
Has already won a valuable hcp – unlike previous 3yo winners.
WILLING FOE is the first 3yo runner for Suroor after three failed attempts in this race with older horses since 2006.
This one has done nothing wrong and stepped up to win over 12f at Nmkt latest after two Course wins over 10f here.
The draw maybe a negative but three past 3yo winners had a low draw.
Also has not yet run in a big field.
Appears to have 2lb in hand of Senate on form lines with Times Up.
CRACKING LASS won latest at Leicester over 12f but nearly all the past 3yo winners managed to win two races at least in current year so is overlooked as are PROMPTER and SIMEON who have both failed to win this year.

The 4yo participitants.
Generally the 4yo winners were lightly raced in terms of 12f distance in current year.
Only two of the past six winners in this age group had actually run over 12f in current season, with one winning at the distance.
5yo  Similar to above. The three winners won over 10f, 13f and 15f current season.

SUMMARY There is no stand out runner this year for me.
It’s logical to look at the 3yo’s firstly as this age group has high win ratio.
Last year there were only two decent 3yo’s but they had negatives against them
This year WILLING FOE and SENATE are decent contenders and unless it is one of those unusual years the race could be won by either.
TIMES UP has run consistently well over 12f and I liked his performance against Senate, which poses a possible reversal today.
Alan King runs two hurdlers in the race. Both ran well in this race last year.
I would say Salden Licht has interesting form with a win at the track, but its Hurdle form is really decent. The problem is that both have run at group level.
Winner TIMES UP 14/1  2nd Betchworth Kid  (Alan King)________________________________________

NOV HCP STATS REVIEW 2009 (27yrs)

Tastahil - Only one top weight has won, Yavanahs Pace who had won listed event. The group and listed runs have put this up 14lb from its 8-13 weight last year when 3rd. Two recent winners finished 4th (Tropical Strait) and 5th (Group Captain) the previous year. Likes Doncaster and soft ground but the low draw (5) on soft ground has only provided 2 winners. Possible place chance.

Friston Forest - Another Pattern performer with 100 days off course. Longest off course winner was 65 days (1983). Also unplaced latest and only four winners managed to win this with an unplaced run LTO and three of those were 3yo's.

Baila Me - An interesting 4yo who is also a Pattern performer (more this year than ever before). It won on AW latest. It would be the first winner to have run LTO on AW and the first winner to have won its previous race that wasn't a 3yo.

Charm School – Not run over today’s distance but won over 11f on AW. Only won two of twelve races but one of those was at Doncaster. There has been six 4yo winners and four of those had never won over the distance but two had won at Doncaster (10f) and another was placed in two of its three runs there. Charm School has won and been placed in three runs at the track. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Merchant Of Dubai – Only four runs this season and five is the minimum for runners over 3yo. Unplaced latest but that was a group race.

Safari Sunup – Pretty consistent but hasn’t won for a while. No wins in current season plus low draw go against this one.
Siberian Tiger – Three runs this season and all unplaced.

Salden Licht – Another ponderable runner with French Pattern form. Never run beyond 10f and only three races this season.

Broomie Law – Another 5yo with too few runs this term. Unplaced LTO also.

Kings Destiny – 3yo’s have won 16 of last 27 November hcps. Appears to have a chance with 2nd in class 2 hcp at Ascot latest and a win over todays distance in this grade. Not ran at Doncaster but has won up North at Ripon. If there is a concern it hedges upon 2nd latest run as only 1 of 16 3yo’s who finished 2nd LTO have won. Also the two winners that came straight from Ascot here were 5yo & 6yo. Slight reluctance to leave this out but watching last race he looked very tired near finish.

Magicalmysterytour – 6yo unplaced last four runs. The two previous 6yo’s had very consistent form prior to this.

Pevensey – A 7yo hurdler and flat hcpr. Age 6 is the cut off for this race. At least 13 seven year old runners have attained only three placings.


Stormy Weather – A very interesting 3yo who  finished 2nd in a hurdle race latest. Has French Pattern form. Only one run on flat at Haydock over todays distance. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage as the best 3yo today, and on fair handicap mark. A negative draw (2) but Carte Diamond another 3yo won from draw 3 on soft going.

First Avenue – Only one flat run (unplaced) but earlier hurdles runs this year
Rangefinder – 5yo with overseas hcp form. Has had 6 UK runs this term but a big step up from his class 4 hcp win at Thirsk,

Helvelius – A lightly raced 4yo who was a decent 2nd at Nmkt over 12f in this grade. That run was his best ever and the fact that he started favourite then is noted. The majority (8) of previous winners in terms of last track runs came from Nmkt. Also only beaten a nose at Doncaster. As the race is weak with 3yo’s this year he probably comes similar to the remit of Turbo and Young Benz who both won this without a win in current season. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Ladies Best – 5yo. Not a winner over distance nor a hurdler.

Hillview Boy – 5yo with very good course form and consistent form all season. Started out as National hunt flat runner (Tropical Straight last year). Won on soft going at todays course, has a decent draw. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage.

Ella – Not done as much as her mother Flossy who won this after six current term wins in 1999. Only three runs at lower grade this year.
Tilt – Too old at seven.
Conquisto – A C&D winner with highest draw. Possibilities, but has only won races with seven runners. A decent outsider though.
Highland Legacy – Three two mile wins last year but only 3 runs this year.

SELECTED AS LIKELY WINNER
CHARM SCHOOL
STORMY WEATHER (negative draw)
HELVELIUS
HILLVIEW BOY

WINNER - CHARM SCHOOL



2008 Winner not in selected
2007 Malt & Mash in selected
2006 Winner Group Captain was not in selected - but had been in selections previous year.