Pinza

REASONING.
Working with Trainer databases, Previous race year stats, Split Second  - and 2011/12 speed plus/split second additions for race winner comparisons

1.0    Spent a while comparing Golden Flower and Hand In Glove before came aware that latter was non runner.
Very few fillies run and win after a short break since first run (Hand In Glove). Ignored race as GFlower too short although December month is very good for horses that finished 2nd LTO.

12.20 Varian has had 19 winners (since he took over Kremlin yard) from 85 Gallops Gossip picks (Express). The stable under Mike Jarvis had 67wins from 250 over the previous 14 years.
Yarroom didn’t match up today, but these 2yo conditions races invariably go the way of favourites. Couldn’t fancy Andrew Baldings as the stable have very few runners in these races at this time of year.
Ignored race

1.55 Tom Dascombe is not known for conditions stakes winners and Anaconda was too short for a lengthy 269 days lay off. Lay bet.

2.05 Waking Warrior came out well on system data and was backed each way at 6.8.

2.25 A check on recent speed figures collection suggests that top speed horses don’t win AW listed races.
Top was Emerald Witness.
Most of these AW listed races are won by 3or 4yo’s – and the current fav was a 10yo!!!
The S.P’s of previous winners indicate 7/1 and shorter is normal.
Settled for Be Perfect as possible winner supported by age, price and Becketts amazing record in AW listed races - with a lay on the 10yo Shadow Gate to cover bet.
On reflection wish I had set a small price lay on Emerald Witness who touched as low as 1.37 in running.

2.40. Looked hard at Haggass database for encouragement to back Lady Mallet.
Noticed a few 2yo’s that had two AW runs in maiden from Nov-Dec failed to win (Sherrin yesterday) – so wary of this fact
At odds on it was no bet anyway but too risky for a lay.
The only one that could beat it was the Fahey runner but that had been off track a good while.
Ignored race for betting.

3.00 Stand Guard is running 3 grades higher than it’s latest win!!
Speed horses – top 3 have been best at Linga.
Today split second has Tornado Force, The Cornish Cockney and Royal Peculiar as equal top today
One of them should win.

3.35 From a relatively small sample these AW 3yo hcps over 12f in todays grade are generally won by a Distance winner that was in first 3 on latest run.
Fillies and Higher weights also figure amongst winners and top 5 speed figure.
It’s tough but Elegant Orphelia (filly)T3 weight is 5 point clear top on speed but yet to won over Distance or course.
Norfolk Sky T2 has an apprentice rider (not many win with claimer aboard)
Za’lan ran poorly 3 days ago
Sweet Liberta well down in weights and no distance win
Cool Sky T1 has CD win
Bramshill Lass is the last qualifier in speed figures.

Too difficult for me.

Profit on day £23
A lot of work though.