Pinza

Finished the data entries for 2012. That's a first as previous years has been done during Jan-Feb months.
Also includes speed plus,split second and Double Top for most of AW races and all races from end of August.
Also included are the "spot" runners from Mirror and Express newspapers.

The New Year resolution is discipline!!!!
Anyone can tip winners but the losers and especially ad-hoc bets turn profit into a loss.
There has to be good reasons (note the plural) to bet rather than relying on personal judgement.

Todays (Tuesday) test is the Double Top qualifiers (with Top speed plus & Top Split second)

One Way Or Another
Rangi
Jermatt
El Libertador
Merrjanah
Mullins Way

One Way Or Another is in Selling stakes and results for previous qualifiers reads 2 wins from 4 races which is not enough.

Rangi is a maiden runner for Gosden. If you follow Gosden you might know that AW runners in January has not been the routine but in 2011 things changed with two maiden winners towards end of January 2011. Last year saw a dramatic change with 5 winners and four of those were on the trot between 3rd - 13th of the month.

A check against 2012 DT data shows 10 wins from 17 qualifiers.
Support also from Mirror & Express dual spot runners in this range 8 wins from 11 qualifiers.
Today Rangi is a "double spot" and also has a Derby entry.

Jermatt does not have speed plus figures and the ratio is 4-12. Add to that the Express "spot" shows Jermatt but the actual top rated figure relates to Outbid. A discrepancy that occurrs now and again. So this is another race to ignore.

The same applies to Merrjanah in the maiden 5.10 race

El Libertador runs in a handicap 6 wins from 48 races. Also a 7yo (1 win from 9) and ridden by a claimer (1 win from 11)
Another to ignore

Mullins Way 6.20K also a handicap similar to above but this horse was a Double Top qualifier for a race at Southwell on 20th November when 6th of 13 runners and top speed (both) on 24th October at Kempton when 10th of 16.
That might suggest that the figures are questionable for this runner.


Just the 1 bet today.
£30 win Ranji @ 1.92

Doing research on Raceform Interactive Double Top which are a combination of top rated on both speed and raceform ratings.
One would think that such "information" (?) would result in mumerous winners.
Results 123 winners from 440 runners. On rough caculations a level stake profit of 11 points was made - maily due to four winners 20/1 to 33/1

By another process of backing the horse that was both top spot rated, in both daily Mirror and Express, there were 211 winners from 608 runners resulting in 55 points profit.

Period of revue 1st September - 31st Dec 2012


3rd Jan

There are sometimes complicated "system" interpretaions that show a 60% or more strike rate.
On face value Clock Opera appeared to fit the bill in 2.05 Wolverhampton.
Further study revealed that his fillies v colt runners were susceptible and more qualifiers in this remit even failed to win a race in their career.
A lay bet made at 1.52 looked even better when watching the runners at post time Clock Opera looked on the small side.
Even though one cannot be ultra confident so the finger was on the "back to win" button during race and £20 of my £80 bet was struck at 6/1
leaving a profit of £51.


Sporting Gold
Was too short for me to bet and had something to prove on it's previous runs at Lingfield
It was a puzzle why Varian went the handicap route before winning a maiden.
At Kempton, when 2nd, even the Racing UK pundit picked up that he didn't seem right in his movement going to post.
Saying that it was favourite and ran the race in snatches but just got touched off near line.
The improvement was probably down to the gelding operation.

Not sure it was totally suited to Kempton being a right hand track but certainly coped with Lingfield yesterday considering he had ran their previously without encouragement.
Reckon this is one to watch in future AW hcps

Bussa looked a way too short price in apprentice race and the "discipline" slipped with  a £30 lay.
I'm always wary of handicap runners that won their last two races.
Nearer the race I went through the Apprentice races and was surprised at the number of qualiers under the two wins latest form that won an apprentice race. That was another race that my finger was on the back to win button but the in running price never reached the mark resulting in a £30 loss.
I should have got out near the off with just a couple of quid loss.
Lesson to be learnt - Do the study BEFORE the bet.


Friday 4th January
With a 15 race card at Wolverhamton you would think there would be a standout bet.
At first glance Drawnfromthepast 4.00 looked the one.
A previous study of runners in claimers who won their last two races has an outstanding record at the start of the year.
That is exactly the opposite to my previous post about Majuro nine days ago. It seems when 4yo+ race age time kicks in the win ratio jumps up dramatically.

Looking in detail at Jamie Osborne's database was a put off though as his January win rate in claimers is very low.
I left the race alone. Listening to the race Drawnfromthepast just got up in 3 way photo.