Pinza

Today the interesting runners worth a look were,
3.40 Imprimis Tagula
I like Alan Bailey but this one is not for me today, mainly due to age and distance.

4.15 Naalatt
It is a "Double Top" qualifier and backed up with both newspaper "spots".
The strike rate with such is very good in fillies maidens for 3yo's.
The Kremlin stable rarely get their maiden fillies to win before end of March, and that's the negative.
Also 8f for stable maiden fillies has a poor record.

The Dubai based Arabs have another in the race with Mirth.
Mark Johnston is another rare trainer with fillies winners early in season but last year had his earliest such
winner with Rosby Waves in February and FTO runner.

4.45 Entitlement
Fanshawe has only had one winner that followed up a January maiden win with Hcp win in Jan-Feb period.
That was Onefortheditch (filly) who won maiden at Wolver and followed up with win at same track and distance.
With just 2 fillies winners in 3yo+ Hcps at Southwell track (Dart was other) in last 14 years.
At a different track (and left hand) and with a different jockey I will leave this alone today.

6.35 Wake Up Little Suzie
This is another "Double Top" runner in Fillies Maiden and also supported by Mirror "spot"
Although these races have a very good record for DT picks the winning horses all either finished 2nd or 3rd
on latest run. This one hasn't - nor has Naalatt.

Just the one small bet today (highlighted).

Naalat wins and spoils the day.
Well backed into 1/2 near off told the story. Money usually talks.

Wake Up Little Suzie ran close but just not good enough on day.
Actually backed that at 5's and laid stake off at 3's in running.
Just chasing my earlier loss really, but could have laid it lower or to make a profit in hindsight.
The win of Naalat adds to the weight of backing Double Top and Double Spot form qualifiers in 3yo+ maiden fillies races.

Still looked to chase losses and below are Marco Botti's 3yo hcp runners that won their only race.
Area      HORSE        POSITION
AW    Vettorenjoy     6
AW    Gracious Melange2
AW    Rockgoat    5
n    Kingsdesire    1
AW    Solar Deity    4
AW    Frosty Berry    2
n    Ogaritmo    8

The only winner won on Flat at Doncaster and 5 AW runners failed to win NTO.
It was worth taking a chance lay on Al RAQEEB at 1.86 to get my losses back (another add-hoc bet)

Spent part of the afternoon with further analysis of Fanshawes runners - apertaining to Entitlement.
He certainly gets more hcp winners from fillies at certain tracks, but Southwell isn't one of them.
Didn't risk a lay though at around 3's. Set a lower price in running but not taken.

Even after years (and years) at this game I usually find things when I research or explore a trainers database.

Today;
The first race at Southwell - Amateur Hcp
Not normally a favourite race to peruse but having printed out the 10 year stats it was a race that had quite a few races to compare, unlike most AW races.

The trends of those races leaned favourably to horses aged 6yo upwards and had won over Course & Distance.
Only one of past 9 race winners showed a win in last 4 races.

On that basis the stand out horse was probably General Tufto, but looking at it's form it definitely preferred 8f at the track as opposed to todays 11f.

Most of the remainder did not fit the bill although a slight case could be made for Angelina Ballerina with a Course win, but this had only run once for new trainer.

Only one 4yo had won in the 9 races (World of Choice) and looking at the form it had been Nmkt trained before moving to MW Easterby.
The horse was a maiden prior to this race. It had run at Southwell previous but was considerably up in distance that day.

Peace In Our Time, also a 4yo had been with Roger Varian before changing stables and although running well was still a maiden. It hadn't ran at Southwell but that track has done the trick for many learners & dodgy horses.
Ryan Tate impressed me when winning on Rouge Nuage last week and he had come 2nd on it in December - and the horse had been apprentice ridden more times than professional jockey Wiilliam Carson. Amateur jockey probably related to trainer should be no problem riding it today.

Wasn't a major bet but just for interest whilst updating other race data. Just a tenner and another fiver in running and it came up trumps to build up the Bank for flat season. 

3.10
At first glance I fancied Lady Malet and checking Haggas database it fitted most of the 12 Rules, but the draw was against her, plus the low rate of filly wins  in 10 year stats.
The Kev Ryan d/base told me that in this month most of his maiden 3yo's who won had a break off track.
The only one of Kev Ryans four runners in race that fitted was Moe's Place. Well backed from 20's into 7's tempted me for a tenner.
Thought it was going to hang on to the lead until his stablemate Repetition (fav) came late to grab the spoils.

4.40
Ian Balding had a few winners at Southwell, mainly in Amatuer Hcps but Andrew hasn't followed that record. Sweet Liberta looked a strong lay but at 4.3 price was a bit risky. I put £50 down set at 3.65
and that was taken in last 5 minutes before race. Some was laid off at 5's after it drifted near off and a bit more in running at 5 plus. I was content with small profit on race and the day.

Yesterday saw the first selection start off with a winner.
It wasn't a massive pay out at S.P 1/3 but had taken 1.49 on BF earlier.
When one takes into account the current interest rate of 2%, it wasn't a bad investment.

I don't like backing odds-on and there has to be good reason to do so.

The win rate of these double top is 2 in 7
Odds-on rate is 78 from 122 selects, and with a very miniscule profit, does not make backing all worthwhile.

Of the three Double Top qualifiers today only Desert Vision 4.45 Wolver is worthy of mention.
It's not that good a bet for me and certainly not at 2/5.

The basics say 4 out of 5 odds-on qualifiers in 3yo+ Claiming Stakes won.
The ratio of wins with 9yo runners is also 4 from 5.
Whilst it looks good there was one 9yo beaten when odds-on.

The record of DT's in Wolverhampton claimers is 2 from 5 and only due to recent wins at track by Stand Guard.
Mick Easterby is on the Cold List where Double Tops are concerned with no winners from 4 runners, including odds-on Hoofalong.
That may change today but won't be carrying my money.

Starting today I will post the best selections from Double Top system.
Double Top is from Raceform Interactive and obtained from bottom of Declaration page.
These can change from day to day so don't rely on 4day or even 2day decs.
They consist of Speed Plus and Split Second figures.

I've added other Data to enhance winner selection and havea running Database to spot Trainers who have a high win ratio when Double Top (DT).

The below relates to Double Top selects in 3yo & 3yo+ mdns in FILLIES races over last 14 months
All where Top Spots in BOTH Mirror & Express
Four started odds on and won
Five were AW races (4 winners, including two odds-on)

Dalkova won
Khazeena won
Bana Wu  won
Al Janadeirya won
Gold Show won
Fulney won
Bedazzled won
Everlong won
If So won
Gebayl 3rd
Iridescence won

Todays qualifier - HARD WALNUT RESULT; WON 1/3

Looking at owners Qatar Racing they appear to be Sangster Family and asscociates?
Had some decent horses, mainly 2yo's over last 2-3 years.
Olly Stevens is new trainer and this was his only runner when 2nd 22 days ago.

The previously posted 12 Rules has more additions

THE TWELVE RULES – After you have selected a horse you think might win a race.

1.    TRACK. Trainer must have good win record at Course or Horse has won there.

2.    DISTANCE. Trainer must have decent record at distance or horse either won or stayed on strongly at slightly shorter distance. (Mark Prescott is an exclusion as he often puts his horses up in distance to win)

3.    AGE. Trainer must have good strike rate with the age of runner in race type

4.    GRADE. Trainer must have reasonable strike rate in the grade. The horse must also have performed at the grade or higher, or won recently at one lower grade.

5.    DAYS. Trainer must show reasonable win record for days since run. Trainer record in that particular month is another guide.

6.    S.P   Trainer record will show range for S.P. If horse is priced outside of usual range of stable winners then it’s a negative. If selection is FAVOURITE  then decent Trainer record with favs, preferably at Track and race type

7.    TRAINER FORM. Check last 14 days at least for win and/or placed runners. Check RTF in Pacing Post.

8.    HORSE FORM. Good recent form or horseshows it can win after lay off, or at time of year.

9.    JOCKEY. Prefer decent jockey that has ridden it before. Apprentice that has won for stable. A top jockey riding for first time maybe significant if regular rider is side lined or elsewhere.

10.    FILLIES. Fillies/Mares races trainer record.  Fillies v colts record.  Filly strike rate at time of year.

11.    PENALTY. Trainer and horse record with penalty carriers. Track, Distance, grade and jockey allowance.

12.    DRAW. A favourable draw for track and going

OTHER. Any system, ratings, speed or other preferred selection method to tie in. (This may already apply when selection process was made).

Additions;
CHECK DOUBLE TOP Database for trainers with high win rates
CHECK Raceform Interactive 10 year race stats for trends and Speed figures
CHECK Mirror & Express Spot Picks

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START WITH 100 point stake. (It’s unlikely that all 12 rules will apply)
Deduct 10 points or more for every negative rule.
It is a subjective figure based upon the importance of the rule. (e.g a filly up against the colts in winter months might be 30 point deduction)
If passes all applicable rules then bet 200 points


Not saying that I apply all in every race picked as time is not always available.

The Newspaper Spot picks are a reasonable alternative to those that don't use ratings. When both select same horse - has higher win ratio.
I am wary of older horses (7yo+) though as the ratings can be based on prize money won rather than recent form.

The Drawing Broad work is taking preference over betting at the present.
It was nice to get a winner on 25th but since then there's been nothing worth a bet.

The Double Top d/base has now reached 905 with 256 of those being winners.
Data is mainly from end of August 2012 but there were scraps of paper with earlier months selections.

Odds on winners 77  from 117 runners.
On basics it is not profitable, but the extra data from Mirror and Express "spot" runners can add weight to bets.

Some trainers have more than 50% winner ratio from Double Top selections.
Henry Cecil had 9 winners from 11 (and only 3 of those were Frankel)
The Newspaper "spot" supported 9 of the 11 selects and produced 7 winners.
On staking subject a point could be added for such information.

A list of 19 trainers with 50% plus strike rate (purple) provided a profit of 105 points to level win stake.

The "green" list of second best trainers with 33% up to 50% produced 82 winners from 193 selections and 50 point profit.
The top trainers tend to appear in this list (Noseda, Hannon, Johnston etc) more than the purple list.
It's a case of volume in numbers does not necessarily mean winners.

Some trainers are best ignored.
John Gosden has had 6 winners from 15 selects but all his winners were odds-on (and 2 losers) and shows a 6.7 loss
Milton Bradley has 1 win from 14 selects but the winner was 25/1
Other high price winners include 33/1, 28/1 & 20/1

It's early days with this and I have yet to have a bet purely on this method.

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Other stuff on drawing board includes working with trainer data by season.
The months are split Jan-Mar, April-May, June-Aug and Sept-Dec

It appears easier than working with the whole database.
Currently looking at Jan-March

Ian Williams definitely has his higher win ratio in these months than others.
Roger Varian (+ Jarvis data) does little in this period but some trends with 3yo hcps
Mark Prescott with just 4yo geldings in hcps

The test will come with Mark Johnston which I'm starting today.

"When I change the way I look at things - I look at change"

William Haggas rarely runs a filly in 4yo+ hcp on AW so early in year.
Haamat in March 2012 had been his earliest such winner and that was at Lingfield over 6f.

His runner today at Lingfield 3.05 over 6f is POLAR VENTURE RESULT WON
This has already won a hcp over CD 14 days ago and his Haggas's earliest filly winner in 4yo+ Hcp
Two runs over 6f at Linga resulted in two wins.
The lightly raced filly has only had four outings as she was a late starter in November.
She has achieved quite a lot already in her short career and sticks to E grade race today.

Haggas record with fillies in E grade Hcp races on AW is pretty good and the strike rate with WLTO
runners hovers around 50%.

Surprisingly it is not yet favourite, and a slight drift in price on BF from 9/4 is backable at 11/4.

The fav is Khawatim. This ex French Group 3 placed gelding won comfortably at Wolver over todays distance when dropped to this grade.

14.07 Update
Two concerns
1. The Drift out to 4.5
2. Lowest speed figure (split second) in race

After mentioning Mark Johnston yesterday I've looked at his 4 runners today

1.30 Irish Dream - Does not appear to be much in the race but it's a filly up against colt/gelds
Nott Rigg is a "Double Top" selected but I'm giving the race a miss. 

2.30 Broxbourne - This was one of his horses that had duplicate entries in next few days.
It's a class 6 hcp and MJ's record in these is few in this 4yo+ age group.

4.30 Best today imo - Special Meaning.
The fillies in maiden races Jan-Feb usually run well.
He is awaiting his first such win (Jan-Feb) in a fillies maiden race at Kempton though!

5.00 Federal Blue - a FTO runner over 11f.
It may have a chance but it's a guessing game.

Sohcahtoa never delivered yesterday 4th 11/4jf

2.00 Wolv
Mark Johnston had never done anything with his 3yo fillies v colts in 3yo+ Maiden Stakes early in the year until 2012.
Last year was a change in tactics and he won three races in January and two in February.

Always Fabulous is a tentative selection to start the MJ off this year.

RESULT.
Street Battle won.

Didn't fancy the 4yo's to beat the 3yo's and listening to Timeform radio there was mention from a punter that only danger was Street Battle.
Covered that at late stage to come out slightly in profit.

Although the Haggas filly (Lady Mallet) was odds on initially they usually start at lower than 4/5
The drift out to Evens was the warning.
With 3yo's in maiden races (3yo & 3yo+)Since  1995 to end of 2012 Haggas has had 59 winners from 87 that started Evens and less.
The ratio that started 1/2 and less was 21 wins from 26 races
The ratio up to 8/13 was 40 wins from 54 races
The ratio with runners that started from 4/5 to Evens  was 19 wins from 33 races.
Higher the odds means less chance of winning in the price range up to Evens.

After 21 runners Mark Johnston is still awaiting his first winner of 2013!
He has 19 entries in the next four days (15 horses).
Has to come good soon.......
January win figures (120)since 1994
6-4-9-9-5-8-3-2-4-3-1-1-1-0-8-11-14-16-14

A quiet few days without racing. Hopefully Wolverhampton races today

Checking last 3 years AW data there were 9 horses aged 7-8yrs that won latest and attempted to follow up hcp win at Wolver over 14f (todays distance)
Five won and two were close 2nds.
The class of race varied from 6 to 4.
Class 5 (todays race) win strike rate was 2 from 3.

Checking the winners (and losers) it appears that those who won had either previously won at Wolver and/or had also previously in their career won two races on the trot.

That would put David Barron's runner Sohcahtoa with a winning chance. RESULT; Unplaced

The downsides would be the month and apprentice claimer jockey.

The month of January has not been tested in the limited data but February has provided a winner and 2nd (mare against gelds)
Two claimer jockeys failed to win but their horses did not meet the Wolver previous win criteria.
The jockey today is the regular rider and has won twice incuding latest run.

With six races on AW Sohcahtoa won it's first AW win on it's first attempt at Wolver so hopefully will follow up today.