Pinza

The Drawing Broad work is taking preference over betting at the present.
It was nice to get a winner on 25th but since then there's been nothing worth a bet.

The Double Top d/base has now reached 905 with 256 of those being winners.
Data is mainly from end of August 2012 but there were scraps of paper with earlier months selections.

Odds on winners 77  from 117 runners.
On basics it is not profitable, but the extra data from Mirror and Express "spot" runners can add weight to bets.

Some trainers have more than 50% winner ratio from Double Top selections.
Henry Cecil had 9 winners from 11 (and only 3 of those were Frankel)
The Newspaper "spot" supported 9 of the 11 selects and produced 7 winners.
On staking subject a point could be added for such information.

A list of 19 trainers with 50% plus strike rate (purple) provided a profit of 105 points to level win stake.

The "green" list of second best trainers with 33% up to 50% produced 82 winners from 193 selections and 50 point profit.
The top trainers tend to appear in this list (Noseda, Hannon, Johnston etc) more than the purple list.
It's a case of volume in numbers does not necessarily mean winners.

Some trainers are best ignored.
John Gosden has had 6 winners from 15 selects but all his winners were odds-on (and 2 losers) and shows a 6.7 loss
Milton Bradley has 1 win from 14 selects but the winner was 25/1
Other high price winners include 33/1, 28/1 & 20/1

It's early days with this and I have yet to have a bet purely on this method.

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Other stuff on drawing board includes working with trainer data by season.
The months are split Jan-Mar, April-May, June-Aug and Sept-Dec

It appears easier than working with the whole database.
Currently looking at Jan-March

Ian Williams definitely has his higher win ratio in these months than others.
Roger Varian (+ Jarvis data) does little in this period but some trends with 3yo hcps
Mark Prescott with just 4yo geldings in hcps

The test will come with Mark Johnston which I'm starting today.

"When I change the way I look at things - I look at change"