The previously posted 12 Rules has more additions
THE TWELVE RULES – After you have selected a horse you think might win a race.
1. TRACK. Trainer must have good win record at Course or Horse has won there.
2. DISTANCE. Trainer must have decent record at distance or horse either won or stayed on strongly at slightly shorter distance. (Mark Prescott is an exclusion as he often puts his horses up in distance to win)
3. AGE. Trainer must have good strike rate with the age of runner in race type
4. GRADE. Trainer must have reasonable strike rate in the grade. The horse must also have performed at the grade or higher, or won recently at one lower grade.
5. DAYS. Trainer must show reasonable win record for days since run. Trainer record in that particular month is another guide.
6. S.P Trainer record will show range for S.P. If horse is priced outside of usual range of stable winners then it’s a negative. If selection is FAVOURITE then decent Trainer record with favs, preferably at Track and race type
7. TRAINER FORM. Check last 14 days at least for win and/or placed runners. Check RTF in Pacing Post.
8. HORSE FORM. Good recent form or horseshows it can win after lay off, or at time of year.
9. JOCKEY. Prefer decent jockey that has ridden it before. Apprentice that has won for stable. A top jockey riding for first time maybe significant if regular rider is side lined or elsewhere.
10. FILLIES. Fillies/Mares races trainer record. Fillies v colts record. Filly strike rate at time of year.
11. PENALTY. Trainer and horse record with penalty carriers. Track, Distance, grade and jockey allowance.
12. DRAW. A favourable draw for track and going
OTHER. Any system, ratings, speed or other preferred selection method to tie in. (This may already apply when selection process was made).
Additions;
CHECK DOUBLE TOP Database for trainers with high win rates
CHECK Raceform Interactive 10 year race stats for trends and Speed figures
CHECK Mirror & Express Spot Picks
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
START WITH 100 point stake. (It’s unlikely that all 12 rules will apply)
Deduct 10 points or more for every negative rule.
It is a subjective figure based upon the importance of the rule. (e.g a filly up against the colts in winter months might be 30 point deduction)
If passes all applicable rules then bet 200 points
Not saying that I apply all in every race picked as time is not always available.
The Newspaper Spot picks are a reasonable alternative to those that don't use ratings. When both select same horse - has higher win ratio.
I am wary of older horses (7yo+) though as the ratings can be based on prize money won rather than recent form.
24 Jun 17
23 Jun 17
22 Jun 17
16 Jun 17
8 people are following this blog
FLAT RACING
Comments: 2
Thanks for Comment Shapeshifter.
My staking generally is much dependant on what is in my bank at time.
The AW betting is often lack of discipline anyway, but with small stakes for interest.
If any bets match ALL the criteria I would probably have £200 on, but also a finger on low lay price stake recovery in running (if not already set at such).
My staking generally is much dependant on what is in my bank at time.
The AW betting is often lack of discipline anyway, but with small stakes for interest.
If any bets match ALL the criteria I would probably have £200 on, but also a finger on low lay price stake recovery in running (if not already set at such).
Also, "If passes all applicable rules then bet 200 points". On average, I could see you setting your wager at 70 (+- 60-80). Thus the question: is any bet worth 3 times the average?