Pinza

Even after years (and years) at this game I usually find things when I research or explore a trainers database.

Today;
The first race at Southwell - Amateur Hcp
Not normally a favourite race to peruse but having printed out the 10 year stats it was a race that had quite a few races to compare, unlike most AW races.

The trends of those races leaned favourably to horses aged 6yo upwards and had won over Course & Distance.
Only one of past 9 race winners showed a win in last 4 races.

On that basis the stand out horse was probably General Tufto, but looking at it's form it definitely preferred 8f at the track as opposed to todays 11f.

Most of the remainder did not fit the bill although a slight case could be made for Angelina Ballerina with a Course win, but this had only run once for new trainer.

Only one 4yo had won in the 9 races (World of Choice) and looking at the form it had been Nmkt trained before moving to MW Easterby.
The horse was a maiden prior to this race. It had run at Southwell previous but was considerably up in distance that day.

Peace In Our Time, also a 4yo had been with Roger Varian before changing stables and although running well was still a maiden. It hadn't ran at Southwell but that track has done the trick for many learners & dodgy horses.
Ryan Tate impressed me when winning on Rouge Nuage last week and he had come 2nd on it in December - and the horse had been apprentice ridden more times than professional jockey Wiilliam Carson. Amateur jockey probably related to trainer should be no problem riding it today.

Wasn't a major bet but just for interest whilst updating other race data. Just a tenner and another fiver in running and it came up trumps to build up the Bank for flat season. 

3.10
At first glance I fancied Lady Malet and checking Haggas database it fitted most of the 12 Rules, but the draw was against her, plus the low rate of filly wins  in 10 year stats.
The Kev Ryan d/base told me that in this month most of his maiden 3yo's who won had a break off track.
The only one of Kev Ryans four runners in race that fitted was Moe's Place. Well backed from 20's into 7's tempted me for a tenner.
Thought it was going to hang on to the lead until his stablemate Repetition (fav) came late to grab the spoils.

4.40
Ian Balding had a few winners at Southwell, mainly in Amatuer Hcps but Andrew hasn't followed that record. Sweet Liberta looked a strong lay but at 4.3 price was a bit risky. I put £50 down set at 3.65
and that was taken in last 5 minutes before race. Some was laid off at 5's after it drifted near off and a bit more in running at 5 plus. I was content with small profit on race and the day.