orioles

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Against Lester, the Yanks' lineup is hitting .231; he's 7-1 with a 3.49 ERA in 13 starts against New York, and won the last four meetings with a 2.05 ERA. Ouch.

Boston are hitting .243 against Garcia, and their home and away splits are similarly close. Last 3 they diverge wildly, because Lester has got knocked about recently, particularly by the ChiSox.

This is a difficult game to call, but I'm going to go with the veteran arm and home dog; the Bombers will be keen to impress in their house and the Yanks can expose Lester, who has been a little fortunate to receive so much run support this season and is putting more on the usual. The Yankees also have the edge out of the pen.

Pick: Yankees @ 2.15

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

40-43 (-1.76pts)

LA Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Lilly's figures last three are quite striking (0.90/2.70 WHIP/ERA) until you break it down by opposition. Similarly, Lee's figures are skewed somewhat by a shelling by the Nats; but at home, he's a solid 1.19/2.72 and as you might expect, is a short price to beat the Dodgers tonight. Too short for my taste.

The Dodgers' lineup is hitting a collective .116 lifetime against Lee, with a .106 OPS and .119 OBP, and none have hit him out, so it would be a surprise if they suddenly took him apart. The same stats for Lilly read: .250/.269/.500 and he's 0-2 with a 12.96 ERA in his last two games in Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers' pen is also rocking a bit, carrying injuries, and if the Phils get to Lilly early, it might get messy.

All that said, the Dodgers can hit; Kemp is rolling and Lee has given up the long ball recently. With the Phils so short, the value might be in taking on a low-ish total in the Philadelphia sunshine.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

40-42 (-0.76pts)

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

Hudson has given the Mets a torrid time in the past: 13-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 20 career starts and 5-1/2.20 ERA L6. He has also owned them at Citi Field in his last three visits.

Unfortunately, Dickey has really struggled at home. He's 0-6 this season and if you include last season, he has lost eight in a row on his own mound.

Best price 1.87 isn't exactly lighting the fires of ecstasy in my heart, but it looks like the bet here.

Pick: Braves @ 1.87

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

40-41 (+0.24pts)

Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians

Interestingly, in direct contrast to last night's pick, this is the preferred run line situation. As I noted below in my baseball betting hints:

Road Teams in the Money Line Odds 1.83 or shorter beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game.

Be careful betting on the Home Favourite with the Run Line as they often times win 1 run games. If the game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth and the home team comes to the plate and gets the bases loaded, a double would typically score 2+. But in this case, the game ends, and your team wins by 1 and you lose the bet.

As happened last night!

Wilson is strong all around. Talbot has struggled since his return from injury and has an ugly line at home (3.00/12.27 WHIP/ERA). Added to that, the Rangers are on a tear and Cleveland are going in the opposite direction.

The perfect storm

The price is above my usual 1.75 cut-off and warrants a bet SU, but dammit, I'm desperate! Besides, I think this is a rare occasion when there's value on the run line. However, as my form is slightly worse than the slumping Injuns, you'll know where to put your 'hard earned'.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ 2.25

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

39-41 (-1.01pts)

Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

Well, 79 live games picked ... and I'm back to square one. Genius

This game's a pig: the Cubs fulfil the losing streak criterion, Lohse is lights out this season, the price SU on St Louis is positively porcine and I hate Laying the runs.

My instinct is just to take the long odds (especially as Wells has done ok against the Cardinals in the past and Lohse has found the Cubs difficult) but the home team hitters are rolling and the Chicago lineup is so beat up, their bats have come out on strike (ho ho) in sympathy. Totals are a difficult call because only one side looks like hitting, but that history makes me nervous.

On balance, I'll reluctantly bet the runline.

Pick: Cardinal -1.5 @ 2.1


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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

39-40 (+0.01pts)

LA Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Both these pitchers have been rocked recently and in a room like Great America Ballpark, that could spell trouble.

I'm not a big fan of Overs, but it looks like the bet here.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

This game is an example of one of the betting tips below: look for young, highly rated pitchers going through lineups for the first time. Juan Nicasio has all sorts of heat and carries 1.14/0.00 WHIP/ERA into the game. Matt Cain on the other hand, has an ugly line L3, although he has pitched well historically against the Rockies.

I would go Under, but there's no value at best price 1.8, so I'll take the tyro to take out the Giants in their home park.

Pick: Rockies @ 2.16

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

39-39 (+2.01pts)

Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians

Texas batters that have faced Carrasco have a 4.29 Avg and .467 OBP. and on the season, he has relied on an avalanche of runs in support to give him a 4-2 mark. The same stats for Dave Bush are .236 Avg, .263 OBP, so he's kept the Indians bats off rather better. However it's no good pretending this spot start is worthy of a big plunge and the risk of a shelling is always there at Progressive Field.

I don't trust either pitcher here and with both sides swinging the lumber, I'll go Over at the price.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2.15 (B365)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-39 (+0.86pts)

*A note about the early game. Setting aside another humiliating pick, this blog is as much about baseball betting in general, and I mentioned below about the value of Laying teams at very short prices. The Bucs/Mets game was a great example: there were decent sums traded all the way down to 1.04 on the Pirates when they were 7-0 up, and they lost. Nice.

I wasn't a Layer, naturally

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

The Bucs are on a bit of an upswing these days, and they seem as surprised by it as everyone else. The Mets on the other hand, are struggling, and that's not a happy position in New York. Maholm has been strong L3 and is 1.10/3.58 WHIP/ERA on the road and Pelfrey is similarly a solid 1.07/2.08 at Citi Field.

The two offenses are scuffling a little at the plate: Mets are hitting .224 L10 against lefties and the Pirates are just .209 L10 against right handed pitching. The weather is ok with 26kmh WNW.

I'm going Under and pray MY losing streak ends

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-38 (+1.86pts)

San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals

These two broke my heart last night, and that play in left field by Nix in the Phils/Nats' game this evening nearly finished me off. Meh.

However, momma never raised a quitter. I'm always tempted by a 1.8+ price on Lincecum and Hills are going as high as 1.91 - but guessing how the Giants will hit worries me. Westbrook has been pitching beautifully and I love his stuff, so I'll trust that these two battle it out in a low scoring, close game.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.83

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-37 (+2.86pts)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

The classic runline scenario: road favourite, strong pitcher (1.22/2.60 WHIP/ERA: 1.50/1.50 L3) going against a home pitcher who struggles with the lineup (0-10/6.44 career ERA against Philadelphia.)

I'd like to have a bit more offense from the Phils, but I'll Lay the runs.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ 2.15

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-36 (+3.86pts)

*A note about last night's game: The Giants blew the game in the bottom of the 8th when their shutdown late men imploded (Romo had only allowed nine base runners all season!). I believe it pays to be highly risk averse in baseball betting and locking in profit early; baseball is a long betting slog. Conversely, there's often some nice profits to be had Laying very short prices late on in games.

Last night was a good example.