LA Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Lilly's figures last three are quite striking (0.90/2.70 WHIP/ERA) until you break it down by opposition. Similarly, Lee's figures are skewed somewhat by a shelling by the Nats; but at home, he's a solid 1.19/2.72 and as you might expect, is a short price to beat the Dodgers tonight. Too short for my taste.
The Dodgers' lineup is hitting a collective .116 lifetime against Lee, with a .106 OPS and .119 OBP, and none have hit him out, so it would be a surprise if they suddenly took him apart. The same stats for Lilly read: .250/.269/.500 and he's 0-2 with a 12.96 ERA in his last two games in Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers' pen is also rocking a bit, carrying injuries, and if the Phils get to Lilly early, it might get messy.
All that said, the Dodgers can hit; Kemp is rolling and Lee has given up the long ball recently. With the Phils so short, the value might be in taking on a low-ish total in the Philadelphia sunshine.
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91
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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
40-42 (-0.76pts)
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