Interestingly, in direct contrast to last night's pick, this is the preferred run line situation. As I noted below in my baseball betting hints:
Road Teams in the Money Line Odds 1.83 or shorter beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game.
Be careful betting on the Home Favourite with the Run Line as they often times win 1 run games. If the game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth and the home team comes to the plate and gets the bases loaded, a double would typically score 2+. But in this case, the game ends, and your team wins by 1 and you lose the bet.
As happened last night!
Wilson is strong all around. Talbot has struggled since his return from injury and has an ugly line at home (3.00/12.27 WHIP/ERA). Added to that, the Rangers are on a tear and Cleveland are going in the opposite direction.
The perfect storm
The price is above my usual 1.75 cut-off and warrants a bet SU, but dammit, I'm desperate! Besides, I think this is a rare occasion when there's value on the run line. However, as my form is slightly worse than the slumping Injuns, you'll know where to put your 'hard earned'.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ 2.25
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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
39-41 (-1.01pts)