orioles

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

With the poor weather (you should check that come first pitch) the anaemic halos hitting and Haren taking on Seattle, the sleep disordered should go Under.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.95

Persistence in the long haul of a season's baseball betting

A losing bet is a losing bet - that's it; but they're often the most useful learning tools for your gambling. Having just watched last night's Reds/Giants game, I'm reminded that baseball is a fickle mistress.

Sanchez was as horrible as I thought he would be; he walked 5 and hit one in 6 innings, including putting three lead-off batters on (the cardinal sin for any pitcher) and then managed to get out of a variety of terrible jams (including a bases loaded, no out inning) with minimal damage. When the equally hapless Volquez (who walked 3 himself, including lead-off hitters again, and the team walked seven in all) cocked up his base running, only to then get doubled off second from deep left field, I just shook my head at the wonderful idiocy of it all.

"Those leadoff walks come back to haunt you, which it did us at least," Reds manager Dusty Baker said, ruefully noting the Giants somehow escaped.

The moral is that baseball has some craziness built in, and you have to maintain your discipline and trust your analysis to get through a long season with your sanity and your wallet intact.

Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees

Try this; since May 23rd, the tribe have dropped 14 of 18, nine of their last 10 and the last four on the bounce. Since the beginning of this month, the club's ERA is 5.26 (27th in the league) and opponents are hitting .297. On offense, they sport a .292 OBP (25th) and a .225 Average (27th).

Carrasco actually has the better numbers here, and I would happily oppose Burnett at the price, were it not for his recent record against Cleveland and the terrible atmosphere that seems to pervade the Indians' clubhouse. Carrasco definitely has the stuff, but maybe it's a little early. The Yankees are really hitting too - perhaps showing the home fans they're better than the Boston series?

I don't like the Totals and can't have pinstripes SU at the price, so I'll take a small interest in the run line - although this is by no means the ideal position for this type of bet.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-49 (-2.96pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants

Having missed the total by one in the last game, my reluctance to go Over is redoubled - particularly bearing in mind my rule that unless there is a very good reason; when the line is at 7, go Under.

However, in this case, I believe Overs is the bet.

Both these pitchers are capable of putting people on, sporting a WHIP north of 1.40.

The rebuilt Volquez has a 1.53/.361 WHIP/OBP L3. The danger is the Giants will need those numbers, because they can't hit off a tee at the moment. I'm trusting that the final game in a home series, after a heavy loss with their ace on the mound, will put a little pop in their bats.

In contrast, the Reds are rolling and are hitting lefties at a healthy .299 clip. Sanchez is by no means a mug, but still has 1.44/3.63 WHIP/ERA L3 and has walked a terrifying 15 batters in 17.1 innings: that won't work with the Reds' offense - so I also favour them to win here too.

Pick: Over 7 @ 1.95
Pick: Reds @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-47 (-0.96pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Westbrook has done ok recently, but the Brewers are hitting the hide off the ball and against this lineup, Jake's numbers are a little shaky: .296/.354/.479/.833 AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS.

However, I can't have Marcum at best price 1.67.

Marcum has only previously faced one of the Cards' batters and is a pitcher who has good numbers, but a limited repertoire; he lacks that finishing out pitch heater - this means the deeper he goes into a game, the more likely he is to put people on. His OBP rises steeply from 46 pitches on in the count, because batters in the majors quickly adapt, having seen him a couple of times through in a game. This is usual for most pitchers, but more pronounced with Marcum.

Maybe this detail helps if you bet in-running and, if the game is close, some value might be on offer.

Westbrook doesn't inspire, but Marcum is a pitcher whom I've always felt ambivalent about (he also has terrible luck with the bullpen, who keep blowing games when he has left ahead) and that forces me into the totals.

I dislike Overs bets (if you notice last night, although the bet won, the big early lead meant that Baker became comfortable and was suddenly 'lights out' and the total staggered over the line - laying early big leads to zero to go Over can be profitable) but I think here, given it's Miller Park, I'll reluctantly take on the line and hope that the Brewers keep hitting and the Cards touch up Marcum, or the Milwaukee pen, late on.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-46 (+0.04pts)

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

Colby Lewis is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA in eight games against the Twins, and he got hit hard last time out. Although Baker has fared well enough against Texas, he seems to struggle at home and also had a ropey last outing and with the Rangers getting their offense going, that could be a problem.

In fact, both lineups are hitting righties well L10 (.295/.262). The bullpens have put some hard yards in too, so I think I'll go Over with the wind out to left at Target Field.

Interestingly, the home plate umpire, Paul Nauert, is 9-4 O/U. Make of that what you will!

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

43-46 (-1.06pts)

Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees

Talbot's numbers last 3 are skewed a bit by a shellacking by the Red Sox when they reached him for 8 earned runs in 3 innings. Since then, he's done ok, but suffered from a lack of support. His day game numbers are horrible though; 2.78/10.00 WHIP/ERA and an astonishing OBP of .500. The 2.8+ on offer is always tempting on baseball's betting rollercoaster for the AL Central leader, but in this case I think the Tribe should be swerved.

That leaves the Yankees, or totals.

The line is a little high, and I'm tempted by Unders, however, there's no doubt the bombers are smarting physically and mentally after the sweep by Boston, and Carmona decided to increase the love in the room by plunking Mark Teixeira last night. That cleared the benches, so I expect the Yankees to be 'at it' today on a muggy Bronx afternoon.

Colon is solid enough at home, particularly during the day, and his numbers against this lineup are fair with them hitting .250/.348 OBP: the Yanks' lineup is hitting .314/.429 off Talbot.

I'm going to throw out all my rules on a Saturday when my only big bet (on the horses) went down and go on tilt on the run line, betting an angry Yanks' side is out to make a point.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

42-46 (-2.06pts)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins

I know I keep harping on about helpful maxims in baseball betting, but I'm afraid I have to repeat this once more: 'baseball is a game of streaks'. For the purposes of gambling, that can be further refined to: particularly LOSING streaks should not be ignored - or 'bad teams find a way to lose'.

The Marlins are fast approaching a franchise record losing streak, and if anyone can snap it, it's Sanchez, but Saunders' numbers L3 have been good (0.95/2.7 WHIP/ERA). Florida have been hitting .180 against lefties L10, and firing their hitting coach doesn't seem to have helped, so I'll take them to carry on struggling.


Pick: Diamondbacks @ 2.4

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

42-45 (-1.06pts)

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

A simple, value pick. Boston are surging and Beckett is a pitcher you don't leave alone at 2.4.

'Boston is 6-1 when Beckett gets the ball opposite Sabathia ... Beckett has gone 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA in those seven matchups, while Sabathia is 1-4 with a 6.05 ERA.'

'Nuff said.

Pick: Red Sox @ 2.4

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

41-45 (-2.46pts)

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

The Red Sox are tearing it up and Wakefield has quietly re-emerged as a sometime magician on the mound. Burnett is not someone to oppose out of hand, but he has had the occasional ropey outing against the Sox and the value must be to take the price on the surging bean town boys.

Pick: Red Sox @ 2.3

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

40-45 (-3.76pts)

Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants

Someone actually contacted me to ask if I was going to preview tonight's game, as I'd missed the Cubs/Reds!

Pay attention to my record, chaps

Actually, on a serious point, remember these are 'forced' picks, as I'm doing all the live games; what I'm trying to do is give some thoughts on betting baseball, rather than finance the purchase of my next yacht, or rubber ducky

Nats/Giants: Two sides hardly lighting it up on offense (22nd and 29th in hitting respectively) but the Nats' lineup is actually hitting a collective .324 against Cain (who is a less than shutdown 1.54/4.74 L3) and Maya is struggling mightily with a 1.89/8.00 line L3 - although this Giants lineup has never faced him.

If the Giants weren't struggling so much at the plate, I might even be tempted to bet the run line, despite the fact they're at home, because Maya may be a rag arm, but let's keep it simple.

AT&T Park is never a confident Overs' bet, but I fancy one, or both, of these pitchers to give up some runs today.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

40-44 (-2.76pts)