orioles

Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees

Talbot's numbers last 3 are skewed a bit by a shellacking by the Red Sox when they reached him for 8 earned runs in 3 innings. Since then, he's done ok, but suffered from a lack of support. His day game numbers are horrible though; 2.78/10.00 WHIP/ERA and an astonishing OBP of .500. The 2.8+ on offer is always tempting on baseball's betting rollercoaster for the AL Central leader, but in this case I think the Tribe should be swerved.

That leaves the Yankees, or totals.

The line is a little high, and I'm tempted by Unders, however, there's no doubt the bombers are smarting physically and mentally after the sweep by Boston, and Carmona decided to increase the love in the room by plunking Mark Teixeira last night. That cleared the benches, so I expect the Yankees to be 'at it' today on a muggy Bronx afternoon.

Colon is solid enough at home, particularly during the day, and his numbers against this lineup are fair with them hitting .250/.348 OBP: the Yanks' lineup is hitting .314/.429 off Talbot.

I'm going to throw out all my rules on a Saturday when my only big bet (on the horses) went down and go on tilt on the run line, betting an angry Yanks' side is out to make a point.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

42-46 (-2.06pts)