orioles

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Westbrook has done ok recently, but the Brewers are hitting the hide off the ball and against this lineup, Jake's numbers are a little shaky: .296/.354/.479/.833 AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS.

However, I can't have Marcum at best price 1.67.

Marcum has only previously faced one of the Cards' batters and is a pitcher who has good numbers, but a limited repertoire; he lacks that finishing out pitch heater - this means the deeper he goes into a game, the more likely he is to put people on. His OBP rises steeply from 46 pitches on in the count, because batters in the majors quickly adapt, having seen him a couple of times through in a game. This is usual for most pitchers, but more pronounced with Marcum.

Maybe this detail helps if you bet in-running and, if the game is close, some value might be on offer.

Westbrook doesn't inspire, but Marcum is a pitcher whom I've always felt ambivalent about (he also has terrible luck with the bullpen, who keep blowing games when he has left ahead) and that forces me into the totals.

I dislike Overs bets (if you notice last night, although the bet won, the big early lead meant that Baker became comfortable and was suddenly 'lights out' and the total staggered over the line - laying early big leads to zero to go Over can be profitable) but I think here, given it's Miller Park, I'll reluctantly take on the line and hope that the Brewers keep hitting and the Cards touch up Marcum, or the Milwaukee pen, late on.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

44-46 (+0.04pts)